Welcome to Chiefs week, Broncos Country. The 8-2 Denver Broncos are preparing for their biggest and most important test of the season, as the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town for one of the biggest games at Empower Field at Mile High since the 2016 AFC Championship Game when Denver took down Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
While the Broncos have the best record in the division, they haven’t looked the part over the last three weeks on offense and special teams. There have been a plethora of special teams miscues and Bo Nix has been struggling at the quarterback position. The defense has been bearing most of the weight, similar to the 2015 Broncos that won Super Bowl 50.
The oddsmakers aren’t thinking too highly of Nix and the Broncos heading into this pivotal showdown, as the Chiefs are favored by 3.5 points despite the game being in the Mile High City.
What does this mean? Generally, home teams are given a three point cushion by the books in the NFL, so if that were the case here, it would mean that the books think that Kansas City should actually win by a touchdown, not a field goal. Given that the Broncos are 8-2 and the Chiefs are just 5-4, that essentially means that no one is taking Denver seriously.
They have good reason to do so. Denver’s .326 strength of victory ranks 14th in the AFC, as the Philadelphia Eagles are the only team with a winning record that they have beaten. Both of their losses came against teams with winning records, the Colts (8-2) and Chargers (7-3).
Denver hasn’t fared too well against the spread this season, with a 4-5-1 record. They’ve played some opponents closer than the books would’ve thought, while they had some dominant wins in which they covered over twice what the spread was. Even a three point loss would be a cover if this line were to hold, so a win would put them right back to being .500 ATS.
This is a prove-it game for the orange and blue. Especially after how lousy they looked in primetime against the Raiders last week, a lot of people are starting to think of them as the 2022 Vikings or the 2020 Steelers, two teams that dominated the regular season and then instantly had all their flaws exposed in the playoffs. The books don’t have a lot of faith in them to come out victorious, but Broncos Country is thinking the complete opposite.