What Bo Nix and the Broncos offense need desperately is consistency.
By some metrics, Nix concluded Week 10 somewhere in the middle of the league. In EPA (expected points added) per play, he sat 20th of 32 eligible quarterbacks. In ESPN’s QBR metric, he concluded Sunday’s play 18th.
But the Broncos’ offense — and its quarterback — has been a feast-or-famine enterpris through much of the season. It gorged for a five quarter stretch against the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys; it’s been left famished since then.
Which is why one number is probably a more accurate reflection of where things stand for an offense and a quarterback that has struggled to be on the right side of the fine line between groove and rut, in the parlance of Sean Payton.
THREE NUMBERS ON BO NIX AT WEEK 10
39.3
That is Bo Nix’s success rate over the last five games, a period of time that includes the 44-22 throttling of Dallas, the comeback win over the New York Giants and tepid offensive performances against the New York Jets, Houston Texans and Las Vegas Raiders.
This is the lowest five-week success rate of Nix’s career since the opening five games last season. What’s more, the most recent two games saw the lowest two-game success rate of Nix’s career — 29.9 percent. (The league average this season headed into Sunday’s play is 47.6 percent.) He’s also enduring the lowest two-week and five-week CPOE (completion percentage over expected) spans of his career.
Bo Nix’s season-long success rate of 41.6 percent is 30th among 32 eligible quarterbacks, and is ahead of only two rookies: Cleveland’s Dillon Gabriel and Tennessee’s Cam Ward.
This might have been different had Nix been able to maintain his 2024 proficiency in one crucial area: the deep ball.
71.6
That is Bo Nix’s rating this season on deep passes, per Next Gen Stats, placing him 23rd of 33 eligible quarterbacks. His deep-ball completion percentage of 26.2 is 28th, with a CPOE of minus-7.9 percent that ranks 25th and a deep-ball EPA/dropback of plus-0.02 that is 27th.
Most of these figures are substantially down from last year. Bo Nix’s 2024 deep-ball rating of 108.3 was fifth in the NFL; his completion percentage of 41.3 percent was sixth; his CPOE of minus-0.4 percent was 20th; his EPA/dropback on deep balls of plus-0.47 was 14th.
Nevertheless, it isn’t all on Bo Nix, even though he is the beneficiary of arguably the best protection in the NFL. His pass-catchers have been among the league’s most bobble-prone.
9.7
Percentage of Bo Nix’s passes that have been dropped by Broncos receiving targets so far this season, per data compiled by Pro Football Focus. Heading into Sunday’s play, that was the third-highest rate among 34 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts.
Evan Engram’s drop rate of 15.2 percent — with one drop every 5.6 catchable passes — is the worst among 39 tight ends with at least 20 targets heading into Sunday. He leads the Broncos with five drops; right behind him is running back Tyler Badie, with four drops in 14 catchable passes and 18 times targeted overall.
Among 215 NFL players with at least 10 catchable passes heading into Sunday’s play, Badie’s drop rate was the worst.
Courtland Sutton is another player to struggle with drops; his drop rate of one every 11.25 catchable passes — 8.9 percent — places him 57th among 73 wide receivers who have been thrown at least 20 catchable passes this season.
(Incidentally, the wide receiver who ranks dead last in this statistic heading into Sunday is Cleveland’s Jerry Jeudy, with 8 dropped passes in 30 opportunities.)
Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin are both squarely in the middle; they rank 36th and 37th in drop rate, respectively.
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