Aston Villa manager Unai Emery looking frustrated
Credit: Manh Tung; Breaking Media
Jack Dawson
Tue 11 November 2025 7:40, UK
Aston Villa could still be set for a season of disappointment, with Opta believing that Unai Emery’s side are heavily overperforming to date.
The Birmingham outfit have got their season back on track after a tricky start, with Villa battering Bournemouth 4-0 just before the international break.
As a result, Emery’s side have now risen to sixth in the Premier League as they look to return to the Champions League.
However, their position in the table appears to be false, with Opta on 10 November insisting that Aston Villa should be far lower in the table.
Emi Buendia looking frustrated playing for Aston Villa
Credit: Imago
Aston Villa should be 19th in the Premier League table
While a team’s performance can be based on many things, one such thing that is examined is their expected points.
Going into the international break, Opta has used this model to assess where they believe each team should be as it stands and has placed Villa at 19th.
The Birmingham outfit’s expected points is 10.6, meaning they are overperforming by 7.4.
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Much of this is due to Emery’s side overachieving both offensively and defensively.
Defensively, Villa have been expected to concede 14.52 goals, yet have just let in 10. Offensively, only 9.36 goals should have been scored, yet Villa have netted 13.
Opta believe Villa should be 19th in the Premier League as it stands
Even Wolves, who have been terrible this campaign, have a higher expected points total than Villa
This is despite Villa having an incredible run of form since late September
Therefore, while Villa have seemingly returned to form, these are worrying signs for the Villa Park faithful.
More often than not, overperformance does not last, and Emery’s side could see a massive dip in the table if this happens.
While finishing in the relegation zone is highly unlikely, finishing outside of Europe could be catastrophic, and all the signs so far point to that happening.
Aston Villa boss Unai Emery
Credit: Imago
Therefore, Emery should be terrified and use the international break to ensure that they begin to dominate games more often in terms of chances going forward.
How are Villa performing in the Europa League?
In the Europa League, Villa are performing well to date.
Sat sixth in the table, Opta agrees this is around where the Birmingham outfit should be, with their expected position being seventh.
While they are still overperforming points-wise by 1.8, it is nothing drastic like the Premier League.
Therefore, if Emery can replicate these displays domestically, it could give the Birmingham outfit a better chance to once again reach Europe next season.
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