Just a little over a year ago, the Kansas City Chiefs looked to the future of their coveted tight end position when they handed backup Noah Gray a three-year, $18 million extension just before the beginning of the 2024-25 season. The idea was simple: keep Gray on the roster for the inevitable post-Travis Kelce era that has been on the doorstep for the past two seasons.
So far, that contract has not yielded the results that Chiefs Kingdom or the Chiefs' front office would have hoped. Sure, last season he had a few games that put his name in bright lights on TV screens and a few plays that were worthy of gracing SportsCenter, but this season is an entirely different situation.
Kelce is the driving factor
One reason that Gray was signed to an extension just before the Week 1 game against Baltimore was that he had consistent stats during his first three years in the league, something that Kelce, Tony Gonzalez, and other Chiefs tight ends were also known for. He was healthy for all 16 or 17 games during his first three seasons, and in both 2022 and 2023 he hauled in 28 catches for an average of 302 yards (10.8 ypc).
During those seasons, it was still obviously Kelce's show, and everyone else was just lucky enough to watch, as he averaged 98.3 receptions in those three seasons for just under 1,150 yards and over eight touchdowns. But after the three-year extension, Gray started to show his true self—the version that propelled him to the NFL Draft out of Duke back in COVID-era football stadiums.
Once Kelce's play started to decline last season, it was suddenly Noah Gray who became a security blanket for Patrick Mahomes, especially in big games like the one against Buffalo where he caught two touchdowns. And then, in an effort to show Gray really could be TE1 after Kelce, he caught two more touchdowns the next week in a nail-biter against Carolina, immediately creating a career-high four touchdowns for Gray in a season.
BACK-TO-BACK WEEKS WITH BACK-TO-BACK SCORES FOR NOAH 😤 pic.twitter.com/LeYiTLwkkt
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 24, 2024
All of this was juxtaposed with Kelce's down year, where he only put up 823 receiving yards, the lowest amount of his illustrious 13-year career. So, the contract extension seemed like a smart move for Chiefs GM Brett Veach, and it was starting to calm the doubts about the tight end position in the coming years—but this season has brought those fears and doubts back.
Chiefs should be suddenly scared to lose Kelce
During Kelce's record-breaking seasons where he put up 1,000 receiving yards and double-digit touchdowns, there was always that scratch in the back of Chiefs Kingdom's collective brain. That itch that Kelce would begin to age and eventually leave the franchise to go be a big Hollywood actor or podcast host. And after last season, there was a good chunk of fans who were ready to let Gray take the reins while Kelce walked off into the showbiz spotlight. Now, not so much.
Kelce has returned to form, leading all tight ends in receiving yards (540) despite only ranking fifth in receptions (41) behind guys like Arizona's Trey McBride (52), Dallas' Jake Ferguson (56), and even Atlanta's Kyle Pitts (43). Meanwhile, Gray's role on the team has shrunk behind the explosive wide receivers, as well as the resurgence of Kelce.
Gray enters the Week Nine bye ranked second-to-last in targets (18) and receptions (11) while also being dead last (40th of 40 tight ends) in receiving yards with a measly 98 on the season. If you trust PFF grades, then that also adds a layer of disappointment, ranking 37th out of 40 tight ends in receiving grade (55.7).
Suddenly, it might not seem viable for Kelce to retire or even take a few series off during the Chiefs' arduous schedule this year. But all of Gray's shortcomings can be explained by simple mathematics when looking at the team and what Coach Andy Reid wants to do with the offense.
The return of Rashee Rice takes multiple target shares away from Gray (and everyone else, for that matter), and his absence due to his LCL injury last season surely allowed Gray to have his best season yet with 437 receiving yards and five total touchdowns. The healthiness of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and the emergence of Xavier Worthy should lead defenders downfield, allowing Gray to get open underneath and in the middle of the field where he thrived last season… yet those targets are going to the real TE1 of the team.
Kelce's return to form this year has obviously inspired some faith in Chiefs Kingdom that he can still be a 1,000-yard receiver as well as a touchdown magnet, but it's also diminishing the growth of Gray, who looked prime and ready to take over the role while guys like Jared Wiley and even Robert Tonyan took up the TE2 role from him.
One upsetting comparison for Noah Gray
Now, 14 months removed from signing the extension, the move to keep Gray is comparable to another move that Veach made just a few years prior: drafting Mecole Hardman.
How? Because just like when Tyreek Hill's legal troubles had Veach and the Chiefs' front office backed into a corner, Kelce's age and looming retirement forced their hands earlier than they may have liked. Drafting Hardman was a quick-trigger response to possibly losing Hill for multiple games—maybe even forever—but signing Gray was similar in the sense that Veach didn't want to be left at sum zero if and when Kelce decides to retire.
With all that said, there are still plenty of ways to get Gray going this season after the bye week. There is the chance that Kelce starts a form of “load management” with more and more snaps spent on the sideline resting and preparing for the postseason (if KC can even get to the Wild Card round). And there are always opportunities against soft coverage or when Rice, Worthy, and Brown are all on the field and nobody is tracking Gray over the middle.
Either way, Gray being the titular TE1 on the Chiefs in the coming seasons is no longer looking as viable as it was during the middle of last season. And although the contract extension he signed isn't bleeding the Chiefs dry, it's just another contract that Veach has given where the return is not nearly as great (“Grayt”?) as expected.