Matt Scrafton's verdict on Burnley's 3-2 defeat to West Ham
How has Burnley's 3-2 defeat to West Ham affected their 'xG for' metrics?
Burnley head into the final international break of 2025 off the back of consecutive defeats in the Premier League.
A 2-0 loss against Arsenal was to be expected, but the Clarets still gave a good account of themselves in a competitive performance. However, a 3-2 loss to relegation rivals West Ham, in a game they dominated for large parts and took a 35th-minute lead, was particularly disappointing.
Even more frustrating is the fact that just as Burnley have figured out their goalscoring issues, their usually solid defence has somewhat abandoned them. Since beating Leeds 2-0, Burnley have conceded seven goals in three games across a 3-2 win over Wolves, and those aforementioned losses against the London duo.
Even so, seven goals scored in their last four games represent a massive improvement for the Clarets, but where does it leave them compared to the rest of the Premier League?
Kyle Walker and goalscorer Josh Cullen retrieve the ball after Burnley's second goal.placeholder image
Kyle Walker and goalscorer Josh Cullen retrieve the ball after Burnley's second goal. | Kelvin Lister-Stuttard.
How does Burnley’s ‘xG for’ compare to the rest of the Premier League?
Burnley’s 14 goals so far this season represents a very healthy total, with Scott Parker’s men outscoring eight Premier League teams, including the likes of Newcastle United, Aston Villa and Everton. However, what will worry Parker is the fact that a couple of those goals have been stunning strikes from outside the area, with others coming a little fortuitously.
According to FBref, Burnley’s ‘xG for’ stands at 8.2, meaning they’ve overperformed their xG by a massive 5.8, with only Tottenham Hotspur’s total higher in this regard at 7.0. Compared to the rest of the Premier League, Burnley’s xG shows that serious work is needed in the final third if they’re to become a consistent attacking force that can produce throughout the season.
Premier League clubs ranked by ‘xG for’
Chelsea - 20.4
Man City - 19.3
Crystal Palace - 19.0
Arsenal - 18.8
Man Utd - 18.2
Liverpool - 17.7
Brighton - 16.6
Brentford - 16.3
Everton - 14.8
Nottingham Forest - 13.5
Bournemouth - 13.2
Newcastle United - 12.8
Leeds United - 12.7
West Ham United - 12.3
Tottenham Hotspur - 11.0
Fulham - 10.7
Sunderland - 10.2
Wolves - 9.6
Aston Villa - 9.1
burnley">Burnley - 8.2
What next for Burnley?
Burnley will now lick their wounds during the international break following back-to-back defeats, the latest against West Ham seeing the two sides draw level on 10 points from 11 games. However, consecutive wins over Leeds and Wolves before those losses mean the Clarets are still outside the bottom three and can be optimistic about their chances of survival, proving far more competitive back in the Premier League than many expected them to be.
Things don’t get any easier once domestic football returns, however, with Burnley hosting third-place Chelsea before travelling to a Brentford side on a run of five wins and just two defeats in their last seven matches across all competitions.
Continue Reading