Inside Elland Road: Defensive solidity is vital for Leeds Utd
Eleven games into their Premier League return Leeds United sit above the drop zone with 11 points but supporters are not happy.
The Whites have lost four of their last five, dropping the last two at Brighton and then Nottingham Forest. The quartet of defeats were punctuated by a vital win at home over West Ham United, but the manner of the losses at the Amex and the City Ground has led to the largest open revolt of Farke's Leeds tenure.
When did the unhappiness with Farke start?
Critics emerged in his very first season in charge, even before they hit the skids late on and had to settle for the play-offs. There were grumbles, mostly at a low level of volume, about style of play, a perceived lack of risk, the timing and effectiveness of his substitutions, the absence of goals from midfield and how Russell Martin and Southampton seemed to have Farke's number. But there was never any question that 49ers Enterprises would give Farke another crack at it. After all, he hit the 90-point mark despite a contractual shambles in the summer that left the German unclear on who would and wouldn't be here to play in the team even after the season had begun. The Tyler Adams and Luis Sinisterra mess, the Willy Gnonto transfer request, the squad he had to contend with before the transfer business was concluded, the lack of number 10. That was all context and the calmness with which he dealt with it kept Leeds rolling towards promotion. They fell just short.
What did the critics say last season?
When you look at the completed 46-game league table you might wonder how it was possible that Farke was the subject of criticism last season, but he was. They didn't get off to the best start, admittedly after another summer of unforeseen transfer turmoil. He lost Archie Gray, Crysencio Summerville and Georginio Rutter. The entertainment factor was a problem for some at times. Substitutions and Farke's ability to change a game cropped up a few times. Leeds did encounter frustration against stubborn, organised defences on occasion - Burnley kept a pair of clean sheets against them. And as Farke himself as referenced, there was always noise, rumours and meltdowns after draws let alone defeats. Ultimately, he had the last word with 95 goals, 100 points and a league title. He did it without a number 10, too.
When national newspaper reports emerged amid the club's promotion celebrations that 49ers were considering replacing Farke, there was a small section of the support who while perhaps finding the timing distasteful, did not disagree with the idea itself. But his name was sung at Elland Road and away from home as they finished off the job and pipped Burnley to first place. Once again, 49ers decided Farke was their man to go into the new season and the Premier League.
Why are fans so unhappy after 11 games with Leeds in 16th?
The manner of the last two defeats is at the heart of it. At Brighton they were not competitive and that was concerning. No one watched the transfer window play out the way it did and expected Leeds to be free scoring thrill merchants, but that meant they had to be solid defensively. At the Amex they were slack and essentially conceded the same goal three times. Untracked runners crashed the area. And Leeds had no real answer at the other end, either. But Brighton have undoubted quality, so there was a more reasonable expectation of points at Nottingham Forest even if they too boast exciting attacking options. Yet Leeds chucked in another poor performance. They took the lead and lost it within 90 seconds. Unmarked runners scored goals. Farke replaced a left-back with winger Jack Harrison and the substitute conceded a penalty. Their Expected Goals was 0.69. It was another deserved defeat. The fourth loss in five games. And even if they beat West Ham during that run, the second half was poor and it should never have been such a nervy finish.
Where Farke drew criticism was in how Leeds tried to play against Brighton. There was widespread unhappiness with how he set up and tried to approach the Arsenal game, but a lesson seemed to be learned as Leeds started to go more direct in the games that followed. They largely ignored the direct option at Brighton. And at Forest, albeit without Dominic Calvert-Lewin in the starting line-up, their dominance of the ball was almost entirely without threat. Safe passing at the back, before Forest forced them to go left and Jaka Bijol struggled to find an accurate outball.
Farke's style plays into a major concern many hold when it comes to away form. Leeds have one win on the road - more than can be said for Forest, Fulham and Wolves - but that win was against the latter who are bang in trouble already this season. His critics say he's getting it wrong away from Elland Road. And at Arsenal, Burnley, Brighton and Forest it was difficult to argue.
Historic issues that Farke's critics had in his first season are still at play - the substitutions, a slow build-up that isn't leading to chances in the way it often did in the Championship and what they see as a risk-averse approach.
Forest felt like a turning point, even for fans who recently were praising the start to the season and how competitive Leeds had been in certain games. The clamour for his job is at a level not-yet-heard by 49ers Enterprises. What's more, the anger in the away end at the City Ground means all of this cannot be laid at the foot of social media angst.
What has Farke said in his defence?
He has highlighted that a point-per-game average is what they are aiming for and that they haven’t once yet dropped into the relegation zone. He has noted the lack of individual one-v-one quality in his squad, referencing how the transfer window ended and pointing out that he always expected this season to be difficult. At times this season he has talked about the statistics and how they have suggested Leeds deserved more than they got from games. Farke has highlighted how much football there is left to play and how the proximity to the drop zone of his side and Nottingham Forest would have been more of a concern or factor if the season was almost done. He has also repeatedly reminded everyone that Leeds are a newly-promoted side who cannot and will not play teams off the park away from home. And he addressed ‘rumours’ about his job, saying they have been almost ever present since he took the position, because this is an ‘emotional’ club with a lot of noise around it at all times.
Is Farke alone in facing supporter dissatisfaction?
In a word, no. The unhappiness with the attacking options given to Farke by 49ers Enterprises in the summer transfer window has been there all season so far. That won't change. He wanted more than he got. They needed more difference makers and try as they might some very good options slipped out of their grasp to go to bigger clubs boasting European football. Or in Harry Wilson's case were simply kept by their club. Supporters won't accept any of that as an excuse if Leeds don't score the necessary number of goals to stay up this season.
Is Farke's job under threat?
No one is ever that safe in the Premier League. When a fanbase starts to turn it can be nigh on impossible to swing things back in a manager's favour. When suvival means as much as it does to clubs and particularly to Leeds with their grand stadium redevelopment plans, there is such jeopardy for Farke. 49ers Enterprises have not shown themselves to be a reactive ownership, they like to see themselves as a sober, sensible organisation who take informed decisions with care. They like Farke's calmness because it dovetails with their own approach.
In football nothing is ever certain but it seems highly unlikely that they make a change right now. The Aston Villa game has become even bigger, because if Elland Road turns then 49ers will find themselves in a completely different reality. The games after Villa make for a bleak mid winter unless Farke can shore up the defence. 49ers Enterprises cannot afford for the side's confidence to crumble or for a gulf to develop between the men on the pitch and the people in the stands. Survival would be an impossible task for a team that lost its support.
What must the manager do to relieve the pressure?
Beating Aston Villa would help. It would buy time and patience from supporters who are concerned and at least temporarily placate the angrier element. Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool then present a nightmarish gauntlet. It's a little bit like playing Monopoly with a low reserve of cash and approaching a hotel-riddled street owned by a rival. Farke's route to job safety is a lot similar to Leeds' route to Premier League safety - competitiveness. The more competitive they are, the closer they look to getting points in games against the Elite then the more confidence there will be that he remains capable of giving Leeds a chance of staying up. Being compact and going direct might be the best hope of any kind of positive result from that trio of fixtures.
What must 49ers Enterprises consider?
There are myriad dangers in making a change. 49ers would have to be convinced that they could find and appoint someone better, someone who could get the best out of this squad. Sack Farke and get the replacement wrong and it's all over. There is a risk in waiting too long, as well, if things carry on as they have been in the last two games. Andrea Radrizzani twice waited until the January window had come and gone before making managerial changes. The Italian admitted he should have sacked Jesse Marsch when the World Cup break presented itself. 49ers were in the boardroom at that point and that has to be playing on minds, even just a little.
But to keep Farke in place they have to be convinced that he is the best option and that his plan, their plan, is going to work as they hoped it would. There is a lot to think about. Who would own a football club?
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