My sports writing background is heavily steeped in baseball analytics, and the advances made to understanding the game during the Moneyball era. The last decade of football has been shaped by a similar influx of data-informed decision-making that has transformed the game, usually for the better. Teams punt less than they used to. They’re more aggressive in going for it on fourth down than they used to be. Offense is more creative than it’s ever been due to the adoption of pre-snap motion, play-action, and other forms of deception.
Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur is a disciple of 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan is a pioneer of using heavy personnel like tight end George Kittle, former 49er receiver Deebo Samuel, and outstanding pass-catching running backs Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Juszczyk to create impossible mismatches. If you play a light defense against San Francisco, they will power run you to death. If you go heavy, Kittle and Samuel (now Kendrick Bourne) will punish your linebackers all day.
However, the key to understanding the Shanahan system is also a key to understanding football generally, and that is the fact that running the ball, even if you excel at running the ball, is still done in service to the passing game. Shanahan has helped mediocre quarterbacks like Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy play like stars because the system leverages a strong rushing attack to open up easy, schemed passes for his quarterbacks. But running the ball has never been “the point” of the 49ers system, and there’s a strong mathematical reason for this.
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Expected Points Added
We have a mathematical model in football called “Expected Points Added” or EPA. EPA is based on crunching all of the numbers (down, distance, yards gained or lost, turnovers, quarter, time remaining, and a host of others) over the past 6-10 years (there are multiple models), and telling us, on average, how much more or less likely a team is to scored based on the play they just ran. If you only gain two yards on first and 10 from your own 20-yard line, your EPA will go down because you’ve traded a down for just two yards deep in your own territory. If you pick up seven yards on first and ten, your chances of picking up a first down on one of your next three plays is very high, and so your EPA goes up. Conceptually, it’s really as simple as that.
This season for the Packers, their average EPA per drop back (pass attempts plus sacks) is 1.33, the seventh highest total in football. The average Packer rushing attempt this season has netted -.057 EPA per run. This relationship between passing and running is consistent across NFL teams, especially over the long run. You will occasionally see a truly great rushing attack pop up, like the Jonathan Taylor-led Colts this year, who average an incredible .196 EPA per play, but they are extreme outliers. Last season the Packer rushing attack was very good but still negative on average at -.030.
Josh Jacobs is an excellent running back who has suffered through some truly atrocious blocking this season, and I want to be clear that the nature of the running attack as a negative EPA play isn’t his fault. It isn’t anyone’s fault. It is simply the nature of football that in order to play good offense, you need to be able to pass effectively. You do need to run the ball, but only enough to ensure the defense is worried about it, or to protect leads and kill clock at the end of games.
Running Not Working
In this game, the Packers ran the ball 22 times for 76 yards, or 3.4 yards per carry, and they cost themselves about five points of EPA. The running attack was not working, and the offensive line was beaten up, with Elgton Jenkins suffering a broken leg during the game. On a crucial fourth and one with 1:30 remaining in the game, the Eagles’ defense was calling out the Packers’ running play so loudly before the snap, that it was audible on the broadcast. The play was stuffed for a four-yard loss. It was ineffective, predictable, and ultimately pointless.
The passing game also struggled against the Eagles, as the team was thin at receiver, but they were repeatedly put into poor down and distance situations by the running game. They were also undone by a lack of real wide receivers being active once Romeo Doubs was lost to an injury. Bo Melton, who had been training as a cornerback, was forced into action and out-snapped actual receiver Malik Heath. Third round pick Savion Williams has been nothing but a glorified running back, and not a very good one. The receivers on this team should ideally be receivers.
The Packer defense has been phenomenal under Jeff Hafley, and in Green Bay’s three losses this year they have allowed no more than 16 points in any one contest, and 39 points total. The Packers are 1-3 when allowing 16 points or less this year (they managed to beat Detroit in week one). The rest of the league is 62-5 when allowing 16 points or less. The Packers have an offense problem. A large part of that problem is Matt LaFleur’s obsession with running the ball more than any other team. He needs to start coaching the team he has instead of the team he wants, and more than anything, he needs to grow past the 1980s offense that he prefers and remember what the point of all of this running actually is. Jordan Love is a perfectly fine quarterback, and the Packers need to start acting like it, or they are going to miss the playoffs entirely.
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