When the San Francisco 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey three years ago, they paid a high price for the star running back. In that time, they've gotten their money's worth when the two-time All-Pro has been on the field.
McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage in 2023, and his absence in all but four games during his injury-plagued 2024 campaign was a big reason why San Francisco fell to the bottom of the NFC West. The idea was that, if healthy, he could be the bellcow the offense could rely upon while awaiting the return of Brandon Aiyuk's glacial-like recovery from a torn ACL.
The 49ers have certainly leaned on the star, giving him 180 carries, the second most in the NFL, to go along with a whopping 90 targets, which is 24 than the second-most-targeted back in the league, De'Von Achane. Indeed, among all the injuries and inconsistencies in the starting lineup, McCaffrey has been a workhorse, but at 29 years old, he might be starting to go the way of most late-career running backs.
And with that, head coach Kyle Shanahan and the Niners would be wise to start phasing him out of the run game and start carving out a larger role for Brian Robinson.
49ers need to start shifting carries away from Christian McCaffrey in favor of Brian Robinson
While McCaffrey is continuing his pace to join the illustrious 1,000/1,000 club, the rushing portion of that milestone has been largely due to volume rather than dominant production. McCaffrey is averaging a career-worst 3.5 yards per carry.
The yards per carry, while substandard, aren't necessarily damning. It could be the result of poor blocking, for example. But in this case, it falls on the superstar running back's shoulders. McCaffrey is minus-0.67 rushing yards above expectation per attempt, which is the fourth-worst mark among backs with at least 50 carries on the season.
Essentially, McCaffrey is gaining fewer yards than his blocking has provided, indicating that the problem lies with him and not the offensive line.
Meanwhile, Robinson has only 49 carries on the season, not enough to qualify for the Next Gen Stats metric. However, the 6-foot-1, 228-pound bruiser is averaging 4.9 yards per carry in his limited action this season.
Brought in to be the thunder to McCaffrey's lightening, Robinson is averaging 3.55 yards after contact per attempt versus a 2.39 mark for McCaffrey. For reference, during McCaffrey's stellar 2023 campaign, he managed 3.35 yards after contact per attempt.
Despite receiving roughly a quarter of the carries McCaffrey has gotten, Robinson has forced nearly half as many missed tackles as the former Stanford product, with 13 compared to McCaffrey's 28.
In the 49ers' 42-26 loss to the rival Los Angeles Rams, the rushing attempts were nearly split evenly between the two backs, with Robinson receiving eight carries to McCaffrey's 12, while outgaining McCaffrey by 11 yards.
McCaffrey is still a dangerous weapon in the passing game, but the carries need to swing even further in Robinson's favor in the coming weeks. Doing so will elevate San Francisco's ground game in two ways. One, Robinson is the hot hand deserving of more carries right now, but also, lightening McCaffrey's load in the rushing attack could prevent some wear and tear on his body, making him more effective with a lighter workload in the interim and keeping him fresh for a playoff run.
It might be unpopular, but at least for now, McCaffrey needs to take a back seat to Robinson when it comes to pounding the rock.