Liverpool’s chances of retaining their Premier League crown have taken a hit on the back of a poor run, which most recently saw them lose to Manchester City.
There was much optimism at Anfield going into the 2025/26 campaign, especially after a huge summer spend on players like Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz.
However, defeat against Manchester City has pushed the Reds down to eighth in the table and leaves them on a run of five losses and one win in six.
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Arne Slot’s men are also now eight points behind Arsenal, who drew 2-2 with Sunderland this past Saturday.
Arne Slot (Liverpool FC) looks on during the Champions League group game between Eintracht Frankfurt and Liverpool FC at the Deutsche Bank Park.
Photo by Ulrik Pedersen/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Opta predicted Liverpool Premier League title chances
As expected, such a poor run has seen their chances of retaining the Premier League crown fall.
Following the close of the summer transfer window, Opta’s supercomputer said that Liverpool would win the title, finishing six points above the Gunners.
That has since changed, with Mikel Arteta’s men now the heavy favourites to take home silverware in 2026.
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After gameweek 11 of the 2025/26 season, Opta have released a new predicted table, which says the North Londoners have a 64.86% chance of lifting the title later in the campaign, while second-place Man City are given a 21.90% chance of success.
Liverpool, who were favourites in early September, are now third-most likely to clinch the league, being handed a 7.39% chance by the supercomputer.
Arne Slot, Manager of Liverpool, celebrates the teams victory and confirmation of winning the Premier League title after their Premier League match against Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield
Photo by Carl Recine/Getty Images
Biggest points gaps overturned to win Premier League title
While the odds appear to be against the Merseyside outfit right now, history suggests they could still pip Arsenal and City to the title.
Since the competition was established in 1992, there have been seven seasons in which a team has overturned a 10-point gap or more to win the division.
Manchester City did it once in 2018/19, overturning a 10-point deficit to beat Liverpool to the league.
Manchester United have done it on five occasions: 2008/09 (10 points), 2003/04 (10), 1996/97 (10), 1995/96 (12), 1992/93 (12).
Meanwhile, Arsenal hold the record for the biggest points deficit overturned, winning the league in 1997/98 after being 13 points behind Man Utd at the end of December 1997.