Newcastle United have lost two on the bounce in the Premier League and it’s left the Magpies facing the prospect of a very disappointing season indeed.
Defeats to Brentford and West Ham in recent weeks have seen Newcastle United drop down to 14th place in the Premier League table.
It’s enough for some to start questioning Eddie Howe and the project he is building in the North East, despite his fine work in the past.
Still, it’s thought PIF are backing Howe to land a top six finish this season. He’ll have to turn things around quickly, though, and prove Opta’s supercomputer predictions wrong.
Nick Woltemade looks on during Newcastle United's Premier League game against Brentford
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Newcastle United now have little hope of Champions League qualification
According to Opta right now, Newcastle are most likely to finish 12th in the Premier League this season. They are backed to get 53 points, a massive 13 points less than last term.
Newcastle are given just a 6.2% chance of landing Champions League qualification and 5.2% for a top six finish. Perhaps the only solace for Magpies fans will be that Opta still believes they can finish above fierce rivals Sunderland despite the Mackems having a brilliant start to the season.
The fact that Newcastle are six points worse off now compared to this time last season says it all, really. Suffice it to say, a 12th place finish after coming fifth last season would be a massive disappointment.
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Would that lowly finish be enough to see Howe lose his job? Ben Foster thinks Howe will be under pressure sooner rather than later, so we may not even see him get to the end of the season at this rate.
Brentford v Newcastle United - Premier League
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What Opta said about Newcastle United at start of the season
This is all in stark contrast to what Opta expected from Newcastle before the season began, when the Magpies were tipped to finish sixth.
Howe’s side were given a 9.5% chance of landing a top four spot, while even the title wasn’t wholly unthinkable at a 5.1% chance of success.
At the time, Opta wrote: “[We have] faith Eddie Howe’s side can challenge for the European spots again despite having a Champions League campaign to navigate as well. The Magpies are projected to finish sixth most often, but they are able to secure more UCL football with a top-four finish in 29.9% of simulations.”
Obviously, it was a highly disruptive summer at Newcastle, and that has to be factored into any assessment of how the season goes. But, given the Magpies’ recent dalliance in continental competition, there’s no denying that a top six finish would always have been the aim.