The Denver Broncos are gearing up for arguably the most important game at Empower Field at Mile High since the 2016 AFC Championship game this week, as the Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town for a pivotal divisional matchup. Denver is 8-2 and in control of the AFC West, but the 5-4 Chiefs are lurking with a great opportunity to jump back into the fight this weekend.
The Chiefs are coming off a bye week — something that doesn’t bode well for the Broncos as Andy Reid is 22-4 off a bye in his career — after they came up short against the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. Josh Allen and the Bills won 28-21, and they laid out the blueprint for taking down the league’s top dynasty — as identified by 104.3 The Fan’s Cecil Lammey on “Dover and Cecil” — but it wasn’t a heavy dose of last year’s MVP.
BUFFALO LEANED ON THE RUN GAME AND HEAVY PERSONNEL TO GET THE JOB DONE
While Josh Allen had a great day in the win, 23-of-26 passing with 273 yards and a touchdown, it wasn’t his one-of-a-kind ability in the pocket that led Buffalo to victory. It was how much Buffalo leaned on heavy personnel and the run game all throughout the evening as they wore down the Chiefs over the course of four quarters.
James cook ran the ball 27 times for 117 yards in that game, and the Bills offense as a whole totaled 35 carries for 141 yards and three touchdowns. They rolled the big boys out onto the field again, either with the fullback in Reggie Gilliam or the three tight ends in Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid and Jackson Hawes. If Gilliam was on the field at fullback, he would tell where the ball was going, as he led the way on quite a few plays, including some well-blocked counters.
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— Film Collins (@filmcollins01) November 5, 2025
With the bigger skill players in the game, Buffalo then ran the ball down Kansas City’s throats, with the Gilliam paving the way. There were even times when the Bills would trot some bigger receivers out onto the field and insert them behind the line to block in the gaps, so they found plenty of ways to get creative with their runs.
After running the ball all throughout the first half, the Bills started to incorporate some creative play-action designs. The Chiefs’ linebackers and safeties were so accustomed to seeing the run that they bit on the play fake, which opened the door for the tight ends to sneak behind the coverage for a big play.
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— Film Collins (@filmcollins01) November 6, 2025
This play in particular saw two tight ends get open and put the Bills in a goal-to-go situation, and showed that the recipe for exposing Kansas City’s defense was to establish the run then utilize the tight ends.
CAN THE BRONCOS FOLLOW THAT SAME FORMULA?
If the Broncos were to follow that same formula of success, it would mean that Sean Payton would have to lean more on the run game and take the ball out of Bo Nix’s hands more, something that seems unlikely. Nix is second in the NFL in pass attempts (350) and averages 35 per games, while J.K. Dobbins averages just 15.3 carries per game. The other issue with that is Dobbins could potentially be out for a few weeks following a foot injury, so the Broncos would have to lean on RJ Harvey to be the lead man in the backfield.
The next issue is the personnel. Buffalo’s blueprint featured a lot of 13 (1 RB, 3 TE), 22 (2 RB, 2 TE) and 21 (2 RB, 1 TE) personnel. The Bills run more plays out of 22 personnel than anyone in the league, and they rank eighth in 21 personnel usage and 10th in 13 personnel usage. For the Broncos, they rank 16th in 21, 22nd in 13 and 7th in 22.
The only similarity is that the Broncos have a fullback they can rely on in Adam Prentice and that they run a fair amount of 22 personnel (6.5%) compared to the Bills (17.28%).
The Broncos also don’t have the same talent pool at tight end. All three of Buffalo’s guys are talented pass catchers and solid run blockers, so they can be out there for all snaps. For Denver, Evan Engram isn’t a run blocker and also leads the team in drops with five, Adam Trautman is not a pass-catching tight end, and Marcedes Lewis also isn’t a threat in the pass game. Nate Adkins is a solid player, but he missed the last two games with a knee injury, so his status is up in the air for Sunday’s game against Kansas City.
With Prentice, Trautman and Lewis in the game, the Broncos could be able to run the ball effectively, but the threat of play-action passes out of that look will be nearly zero.
Is it likely that the Broncos will follow that blueprint this week? Not necessarily. If they choose to line up in the shotgun, Kansas City will have a healthy dose of disguised blitzes and coverages to confuse Nix once the ball is snapped.
Kansas City has a very talented defense, but they’ve shown signs of being more susceptible to the run game than the pass. Establishing the run opens up those chunk plays downfield on play-action, which is why Allen’s completion percentage was so high and he had nearly 300 yards on just 26 attempts.
The blueprint is there for the Broncos to jump to 9-2 and really take control of the division, they just have to follow it.