The 5–4 Kansas City Chiefs are [currently the eighth seed in the AFC,](https://arrowheadaddict.com/nfl-standings-drop-chiefs-into-uncomfortable-afc-playoff-territory-01k95qrgz263) on the outside looking in as the playoff picture takes shape. Their last outing was a disappointing 28–21 road loss to the Buffalo Bills. With eight games to play, the Chiefs have little room to stumble and must take care of business, starting with a tough divisional matchup against the Denver Broncos on Sunday. The No. 1 seed is unlikely at this point, but both an AFC West title and a wild card spot are still in play.
The safest path for the Chiefs in the stretch run is to win the AFC West. The bottom three seeds — Chargers (5), Bills (6), and Jaguars (7) — all own the head-to-head tiebreaker over them. Remember, the top four seeds in each conference go to division winners, while seeds 5 through 7 are reserved for wild card teams. That makes tiebreakers critical in assessing Kansas City's playoff path.
The key wild card tiebreakers are:
**• Head-to-head: Best win-loss-tie record among tied teams**
**• Conference record: Best win-loss-tie record in conference games**
**• Common games: Best win-loss-tie record vs. shared opponents (min. 4)**
As it stands in the race for the AFC West, the Chiefs are 2.5 games back of the division-leading Broncos. At the midway point of the season, that’s significant, but the Chiefs still have the full series ahead with Denver. A sweep in those two matchups would vault them into striking distance of a 10th-consecutive division title. They also trail the second-place Chargers by 1.5 games, with one more head-to-head still to come. Kansas City’s in a real hole, but the path is still there if they hold serve in the remaining divisional slate.
If the Chiefs fail to win the AFC West, the wild card path becomes razor-thin. The Chiefs, Bills, and Jaguars each face four of the top seven conference seeds the rest of the way. The Chargers have three top seeds ahead.
Here is the Week 11–18 draw for the four teams:
**• Chiefs: Broncos (2) twice, Colts (1), Chargers (5)**
**• Chargers: Jaguars (7), Eagles (2), Broncos (2)**
**• Bills: Buccaneers (4), Steelers (4), Patriots (3), Eagles (2)**
**• Jaguars: Chargers (5), Colts (1) twice, Broncos (2)**
While I expect the Jaguars to struggle down the stretch, it’s tough to imagine a scenario where the Bills and Chargers finish worse than 11–6. That means the Chiefs will likely need a 12–5 record to safely secure a wild card spot.
Winning seven of their last eight is no small order for the Chiefs. Only one of those remaining matchups is against a non-conference opponent (Dallas). AFC teams account for 75% of Kansas City's losses in 2025. That means near perfection will be required in the post-bye slate. A dialed-in team, sharp on both sides of the football, could pull it off, but the inconsistent version of the Chiefs may be ill-equipped to accomplish that goal.
The good news is that promising rookie left tackle [Josh Simmons is back with the team](https://arrowheadaddict.com/chiefs-just-got-the-josh-simmons-news-fans-were-desperately-waiting-for-01k95e2mnmqv), Isiah Pacheco is two weeks clear of an MCL sprain and expected to return, and Trey Smith has had plenty of rest and rehab for a nagging back injury. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s units tend to get stronger as the season wears on. November and December could showcase the best, most consistent brand of football we’ve seen from the Chiefs this season
The demands are clear heading into the final two months of the regular season. The Chiefs have put themselves in a precarious position and will need to be locked in to avoid missing the postseason for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. The margin is thin, and the schedule is tricky, but a team with this pedigree is fully capable of answering the bell and punching its postseason ticket.
The next two weeks will tell us everything we need to know about the DNA of this 2025 team. Win both, and the puck is on your stick with six to play. Lose one, and the path gets even more complicated. Lose both, and travel plans for Cancun might be in order by Thanksgiving.