Daniel Farke remains in the manager position at Leeds United by the skin of his teeth, by virtue of a points-per-game fallacy that could crumble in the coming weeks.
United getting 11 points from their first 11 games is respectable for Daniel Farke. Speaking after the defeat to Nottingham Forest, the German was keen to stress that such a run-rate across the season would secure survival.
There’s a very obvious problem with Farke’s logic, though, and it’s that Leeds still have to play the majority of the top half before January.
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In 11 games so far, Leeds have had a somewhat favourable set of games. Despite playing the standout leaders Arsenal on matchday two, United have also faced 20th, 19th, 18th, 17th, 15th, 14th, 13th and 11th already.
Their next eight games paint a much more daunting picture for Farke and his squad:
Date Opponent Home/Away League Position
23/11 Aston Villa Home 6th
29/11 Manchester City Away 2nd
03/12 Chelsea Home 3rd
06/12 Liverpool Home 8th
14/12 Brentford Away 12th
20/12 Crystal Palace Home 10th
28/12 Sunderland Away 4th
01/01 Liverpool Away 8th
04/01 Manchester United Home 7th
It puts Farke’s points-per-game mindset under serious pressure. Should Leeds intend to keep up this rate into January, it would mean nine points from these next nine games – taking United onto 20 for the campaign.
Leeds United to give Daniel Farke tough run of fixtures to save his career at Elland Road
A report from the Daily Mail prior to Sunday’s loss at the City Ground has relayed Farke’s position on the rate of points collected this season. They share that the 49ers’ rationale for sacking the manager will hinge on whether he can retain that 1.00ppg total.
Daniel Farke’s Leeds United position hangs in the balance. (Action Images via Reuters/Andrew Boyers)
Specifically, the report notes the next four games as crucial to Farke’s career in West Yorkshire: Aston Villa, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool await the Whites.
“Key to the thinking of the club’s top brass is the points-per-game ratio. How that metric looks after that quartet of tricky fixtures remains to be seen but according to sources, the belief is that a point per game should be enough to keep the club in the Premier League,” Mike Keegan wrote prior to Sunday’s loss.
“Currently, Leeds have 11 points from 10 matches [now 11pts from 11 matches] and so are tracking fractionally above the target, but things can change very quickly. Four defeats from those tough fixtures and would suddenly be off the pace, even if they beat Forest.”
What’s also noted is that the 49ers are well aware of the pitfalls that contributed to Leeds’ 22/23 relegation. It’s widely agreed that Jesse Marsch’s February dismissal came far too late. As a result, not pulling the trigger early enough doomed the club for the drop. The report suggests that the 49ers won’t be wanting to make that same mistake, indicating that a decision on Farke could come sooner.
Will Daniel Farke survive Leeds United’s gruelling fixture run?
This report seems to strongly indicate that Farke is only going to get the next handful of games to overturn the growing discontent.
The worry you have for Farke is that he’s already got an uphill battle to turn our form around. That looks even worse when you realise the calibre of opposition we’re facing.
Up first after this break is Aston Villa, who just battered Bournemouth 4-0 and have won eight of their last 10 games in all competitions.
For me, this game could fast-track the decision. Online fury and an angry away end at the City Ground pale in comparison to how bad the Elland Road fanbase could turn if things get ugly next week.
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