The Patriots’ Week 11 matchup with the Jets already looked like a layup early in the season. Things have only gotten significantly worse for the Jets in the last two weeks.
The Jets traded away two of their best players in cornerback Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner. And now wide receiver Garrett Wilson is expected to miss weeks with a knee injury.
Here’s what we’re watching as the Patriots look to avoid a trap game:
• The Patriots should be daring the Jets to throw the ball. Load the line of scrimmage. Stay in the base defense all game. The Jets’ best offensive player is Breece Hall, and it would take a Herculean performance from him to beat the Patriots. So, don’t let him.
• Jets quarterback Justin Fields has beaten the Patriots before. He did it in his second year with the Bears in 2022, when Bill Belichick couldn’t decide if he wanted to play Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe, so he used both. Fields has not improved as a passer since that time. He’s averaging a minuscule 142.9 passing yards per game this season. In Sunday’s win over the Browns, Fields had thrown for 12 passing yards until hitting Hall on a 42-yard catch and run touchdown early in the fourth quarter. He finished with 54 passing yards.
• With Wilson out, this isn’t a game when Christian Gonzalez will need to shadow a Jets wide receiver. I dare you to name their potential starters heading into Week 11. Give up? It’s Tyler Johnson, Allen Lazard, John Metchie, Arian Smith, Isaiah Williams and Adonai Mitchell, who was recently acquired from the Colts. Mitchell has some speed, so the Patriots will need to protect against a big play, but this is as weak of a wide receiver corps as the Patriots will see in years.
• The Jets stink, but they do have two good young offensive tackles in Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou. The Jets drafted Membou three picks after the Patriots selected Will Campbell. They’re PFF’s two highest-graded rookie tackles this season. Membou has a 73.2 overall grade and has allowed three sacks and 21 pressures. Campbell has a 71.2 overall grade and has allowed five sacks and 24 total pressures. Campbell has significantly more pass-blocking snaps than Membou, as well.
• The Patriots will likely need to add a tight end from the practice squad with Austin Hooper out with a concussion. Hunter Henry will continue to start, and Jack Westover can move over from fullback. Defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga can also continue to be used as an additional blocker at fullback/tight end. But if the Patriots do add a tight end from the depth chart, their options are Thomas Odukoya, who has more experience, and CJ Dippre, an undrafted rookie out of Alabama. Odukoya is an international pathway program player, meaning the Patriots have a practice squad exemption for him. They would need to sign him to the 53-man roster in order to use him in a game. Dippre could simply be elevated for one week.
• Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has joked this season that he’s “Miss Cleo” for his psychic ability to predict which player is going to have a big game. Diggs said he’s hopeful it’s him this week. Diggs isn’t quite on pace for a 1,000-yard season this year, but he’s been everything the Patriots have wanted and more, and he’s on a run with touchdowns in three straight games. He’s only had two 100-yard games this season, and he hasn’t had a 50-yard performance since Week 7. He has been a safety valve for quarterback Drake Maye, however.
• Maye has been intercepted in three straight games after a four-game stretch with no picks. The Patriots have continued to win, but it would be nice to see some turnover-free performances from the young quarterback.
• It’s supposed to be cold for Thursday night’s game. Maye told reporters this week that head coach Mike Vrabel gave them the choice to practice inside. The team wanted to practice outside. Maye said practicing in the elements can give the team an advantage when it gets colder later in the season. Probably a smart move. Maye struggled in Sunday’s win over the Buccaneers when a rainstorm passed through.
• The Patriots might need to call on some reseves at running back and linebacker. Running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Terrell Jennings, and linebackers Christian Elliss and Jack Gibbens were limited in practice this week. Running back TreVeyon Henderson and linebacker Robert Spillane will maintain their roles. But the Patriots might need to call on running backs D’Ernest Johnson, Jonathan Ward or Rushawn Baker from the practice squad. The team still has Jahlani Tavai and Marte Mapu to play next to Spillane. They can elevate Darius Harris one more time from the practice squad.
• Game prediction: Patriots win 31-10. Jets would need multiple defensive and special teams scores to beat the Patriots. Let’s see how the Patriots’ rivalries jerseys look in action. The matte white helmets have looked sharp in practice.