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MORSE: Week 11 Patriots vs NY Jets Preview and Prediction

The Patriots take on the NY Jets in a short week with a Thursday Night game at Gillette.  This is their NFL Rivalry Game in which they will wear their new “Noreaster” jerseys and white helmets with the Flying Elvis.The Jets were sellers at the Trade Deadline:Traded Sauce Gardner: The New York Jets traded their standout cornerback to the Indianapolis Colts. In exchange, the Jets received:

A 2026 first-round pick

A 2027 first-round pick

Wide receiver Adonai Mitchell

Traded Quinnen Williams: The defensive tackle was transferred to the Dallas Cowboys for the following assets:

A 2026 second-round pick

A 2027 first-round pick

Defensive tackle Mazi Smith

Acquired Ja’Sir Taylor: The Jets additionally acquired defensive back Ja’Sir Taylor from the Los Angeles Chargers in exchange for a conditional 2028 seventh-round pick.The Jets are coming in with a two-game winning streak.  Let’s put this in perspective.  They beat the Bengals 39-38 in Cincinnati by scoring 21 points in the 4th quarter.  This past Sunday they beat Cleveland at home by scoring a Kickoff Return for a TD and Punt Return for another TD.  They generated only 169 yards of total offense.  Justin Fields was 6 of 11 for just 54 yards.  Breece Hall had a 42-yard reception for a TD, the remainder of the team had 12 yards in receptions.Going into week 10, the Jets Offense is ranked 25th with 300.1 yards per game which will go down after that abysmal performance against the Browns.  Passing Offense they are dead last with 156.5 yards per game.  Rushing they are ranked 3rd with 143.6 yards a game.  They had 127 yards in the Browns game.  Total Offense was 21 points per game.  Take away the two Special Teams TDs and they score just 13 points.   In the Red Zone they are ranked 16th scoring on 57,9% of the time.Offense3 WR 1 TE

Starter

2nd

3rd

4th

QB

Justin Fields

Tyrod Taylor

RB

Breece Hall

Isaiah Davis

Khalil Herbert

Kene Nwangwu

WR

Garrett Wilson O

Tyler Johnson

Allen Lazard

WR

Adonai Mitchell

Isaiah Williams

Josh Reynolds IR

WR

Arian Smith

John Metchie

Irvin Charles O

TE

Mason Taylor

Jeremy Ruckert

Stone Smartt

Jelani Woods

FB

Andrew Beck

LT

Olu Fashanu

Max Mitchell

LG

John Simpson

Xavier Newman

Kohl Levao

C

Josh Myers

Joe Tippmann

Gus Hartwig IR

RG

Joe Tippmann

Xavier Newman

Alijah Vera- Tucker IR

RT

Armand Membou

Chukwuma Okorafor

Justin Fields is the worst starting QB in the NFL.  He is ranked dead last by NFL Spin Zone.  They had this to say about Fields.  “Part of the reason we saw the New York Jets absolutely gut their roster at the NFL trade deadline is due to the fact that this team is keenly aware of its need for a quarterback. Justin Fields is extremely limited in how he can actually help the team right now, which is why he only threw 11 passes in the Jets’ win over the Cleveland Browns”.  Garrett Wilson didn’t play and is listed as Questionable for this week.  Tyrod Taylor is the backup and he is not much better.Running back Breece Hall is a player that other teams asked about.  The Patriots were reported to be interested but New York would not trade within the division.   The 5’11”- 217-pound back played at Iowa State and was a 2022 2nd round (36) pick of the Jets.  They had high hopes for Hall coming into the season with their re-vamped Offensive Line.  Through 9 games Hall has carried the ball 138 times for 664 yards. 4.8 YPC, 2 TDs.  He also has 22 catches on 31 targets for 220 yards, 10.0 YPC and 1 TD.  For the season Hall is ranked 10th in the league in rushing.  Isaiah Davis is the backup after Braelon Allen went down with a knee injury.  He will be out until at least December.  Davis a 6’, 218-pound back that played at South Dakota State and was drafted by the Jets in the 2024 draft, 5th round (173).  He has just 20 carries for 119 yards and a very healthy 5.9 YPC.  Fields is actually the 2nd highest rusher for the Jets with 60 carries for 316 yards.  5.3 YPC, and 3 TDs.  If the Patriots can shut down the Jets Run game Thursday night, and force Fields to be a passer and contain him in the pocket they should have no problem beating the Jets.   They need to contain Fields scramble and run ability.I loved Mason Taylor as a TE coming out in this year’s draft.  I’ll admit it, I wanted Taylor with the 2nd round pick we used to take Treveyon Henderson.  I’m not saying that I didn’t like Henderson but thought there was similar value at runningback later in the draft.  The Patriots have two 31-year-old TEs.   Hooper is in Concussion Protocol and is unlikely to be released in time to play in the Thursday Night game.  Taylor stands 6’5”, 251-pounds and played alongside Will Campbell at LSU.  He was drafted by the jets in the 2nd round (46) of this year’s draft.  He is the son of Hall of Fame DE Jason Taylor and nephew of Hall of Famer LB Zach Thomas.  Jeremy Ruckert has caught 10 of 11 targets for 96 yards and a TD.The Jets will be without standout WR Garrett Wilson who has been ruled out.  Reports are that he will miss 3 to 4 Weeks with a knee injury.  The star receiver has amassed 36 receptions for 395 yards and 4 touchdowns.  How quickly can the Jets assimilate Adonai Mitchell into their offense?  Mitchell did not play on Sunday against the Browns.  John Metchie was acquired earlier from Philadelphia and is available.  Arian Smith, Allen Lazard Tyler Johnson, and Isaiah Williams are also in the mix.  None of those players scares me with Fields playing QB.Offensive Line lost Elijah Vera-Tucker and Gus Hartwig who are on the IR.  Left Tackle Olu Fashanu is just 22 and is in his 2nd year.  The 6’6”, 319-pound Tackle played at Penn State and was the Jets 1st round (11) draft pick from last year’s draft.  His PFF Grade is 64.2 good for 43rd.  For the season he has given up 4 Sacks, 3 QB Hits, 16 Hurries, and 23 Pressures.  At Left Guard is John Simpson.  The 6’ 4”, 330-pound Guard from Clemson was a 2020 4th round selection (109) by Las Vegas Raiders.  His PFF Grade is 51.9 good for 68th.  For the season he has given up 3 Sacks, 2 QB Hits, 12 Hurries, and 17 Pressures.  Josh Myers is the Center. The 6’5”, 305-pound Center played collegiately at Ohio State.  He was 2021 2nd round pick (62) by Green Bay.  His PFF grade is 57.4, 32nd and dead last for a starter in the league.  For the season he has given up 1 Sack, 4 QB Hits, 13 Hurries, and 18 Pressures.Joe Trippmann is the Right Guard.   The 6’6”, 317-pound Guard played at Wisconsin.  He was a 2023 Draft Pick of the Jets in the 2nd round (44).  His PFF rating 61.7 is good for 39thamongst all Guards.  For the season he has given up 5 Sacks, 4 QB Hits, 10 Hurries, and 19 Pressures.  Armand Membou was a player I liked better than Will Campbell.  The problem was that Membou played nothing but Right Tackle for Missouri.  Part of that reason was that Missouri was able to get Patriots Draft Pick Marcus Bryant through the Transfer Portal.  Bryant was an All-AAC LT at SMU.Membou has tremendous athleticism for an Offensive Lineman.  The Jets have a pair of bookend Tackles to build on.  Membou stands 6’ 4” 332-pound Tackle.  He was selected by the Jets with the 7th pick this year.   He is having a good year for a rookie starter.  His PFF grade is 73.2 good for 22nd.  On the season he has given up 3 Sacks, 1 QB Hit, 17 Hurries, and 21 Pressures.  His grade is slightly better than Will Campbell, but he is playing on the Right side which is much easier than playing on the blind side of the QB.  Membou is not playing with another rookie to his inside like Campbell is.   Former Patriot Chuks Okorafor came out of retirement to sign with the Jets and is their backup Tackle.Defense

Starter

2nd

3rd

LDE

Will McDonald IV Q

Braiden McGregor

Tyler Baron

NT

Harrison  Phillips Q

Jowon Briggs

Payton Page

RDE

Jay Tufele

Mazi Smith

Byron Cowart IR

WLB

Jermaine Johnson

Micheal Clemons

Braiden McGregor

LILB

Kiko Mauigoa

Ja’Markis Weston

Marcelino McCrary-Ball IR

RILB

Jamien Sherwood

Mykal Walker

SLB

Quincy Williams

Kobe King

Cam Jones IR

LCB

Azareye’h Thomas O

Ja’Sir Taylor

Kris Boyd IR

SS

Malachi Moore

Isaiah Oliver

FS

Tony Adams

Dean Clark

Andre Cisco IR

RCB

Brandon Stephens

Qwan’tez Stiggers

NB

Jarvis Brownlee

The Jets Defense ranks 19th overall, giving up 329 Yard Per Game.  Their Passing Defense is 8th giving up 190.8 Yards Per Game.  Their run Defense is ranked 25th and now without Quinnen Williams, it will be worse.  They are giving up 138.2 Yards Per Game.  Scoring they are ranked 26th giving up 26.8 Points Per Game.  In the Red Zone they are ranked 13th with opponents converting 58.1% of the times inside the Red Zone.Will McDonald LDE had a great game against the Browns with 4 Sacks.  The 6′ 3″, 241-pound LB from Iowa State was selected in the 2023 Draft 1st round (15).  His PFF Grade is 57.9 good for 80th amongst Edge players.  For the season he has 20 Tackles, 7 Sacks, 5 QB Hits, and 11 Hurries.  He has been upgraded to Limited after missing practice on Monday.   Harrison Phillips is listed as Questionable as he DNP on Monday and Tuesday but was listed as Limited on Wednesday.   The 6’3” 307-pound NT played at Stanford and was selected in the 2018 Draft, 23rd Round (96) by Buffalo.  His PFF grade is 63.2 for a 47th rank.  For the season he has 25 Tackles, 2 Sacks, 0 QB Hits, and 4 Hurries.  Jay Tufele fills in for Quinnen Williams and it’s a huge drop off.  Tufele stands 6’3, 305-pounds and played at USC.  He was drafted in 2021 4th round (107) by Jacksonville.  His PFF Grade is 57.2 but hasn’t qualified for a ranking because he doesn’t have enough snaps yet.  On the year he has 7 Tackles, with no Sacks, Hits or Hurries.  Mazi Smith was acquired from Dallas as part of the Williams trade.   Former Patriot Byron Cowart is on IR.Linebackers are the key to the Defense.  Jermaine Johnson is 6’5”, 262-pound Edge player from Florida State.  He was selected by the Jets in the 2022 Draft 1st round (26).  His PFF grade is 61.5 good for 65th.  For the season he has 23 Tackles. 2 Sacks, 2 QB Hits, and 15 Hurries.  Kiko Mauigoa isa 6’3”, 230-pound LB from Miami.  He was selected by the jets in this year’s draft, 5th round (164).  He has 34 Tackles, 1 Sack and no QB Hits or Hurries.  Jamien Sherwood was Free Agent the Patriots were interested in this off-season before he re-signed with the Jets.  The 6’2” 216-pound former Safety played at Auburn and was selected in the 2021 5th Round (147) by the Jets.  Quincy Williams is the ROLB.  He stands 5’11”, 225-pound LB is the brother of Quinnen Williams who was traded.  The Murray State product was selected in the 2019 Draft by Jacksonville in the 3rd round (98).  His PFF grade is 59.2 good for 47th.  For the season he has 30 Tackles, 3 sacks, 0 QB Hits, and 13 Hurries.In the secondary, LCB Azareye’h Thomas is listed as Questionable and was listed as DNP on Monday and Tuesday’s Injury report. He has been listed as Out for the Thursday Night game.  Ja’Sir Taylor was acquired at the deadline from the LA Chargers.  He 5’10”, 185-pound CB played at Wake Forest and was a 2022 6th Round (215) selection of the LA Chargers.  His PFF Grade is 65, but he does not have enough snaps to qualify for a ranking.  Malachi Starks is a rookie Safety out of Alabama.  He stands 6’, 201-pounds and was a 4th Round (141) pick.  His PFF grade is 62.1 good for 47th.  On the season he has 42 Tackles, and no Sacks, QB Hits or Hurries.  Tony Adams is the other Safety.  The 6’205-pound Safety played at Illinois and was an UDFA find by the Jets after the 2022 draft.  His FF grade is 59.9, good for 58.  On the season he has 29 tackles, with No Sacks, QB Hits, or Hurries.  Brandon Stephens has developed into a pretty good DB.  The 6’1”, 215-pound CB played at SMU and was a 2021 3rd Round (165) by Baltimore.  His PFF Grade is 73.1 good for 46th.  On the year he has 43 Tackles, 0 Sacks, o QB Hits and 1 Hurry.  Now that Sauce Gardiner is gone, Stephens will take over the top coverage duties.  Can he handle it?  Jarvis Brownlee is the Nickel Back.  The 6’ 190-pound DB played at Louisville and was drafted by Tennessee in the 5th round (147) of the draft. Also playing significant snaps is S Isaiah Oliver.  He stands 6’, 210-pound S that played at Colorado.  Atlanta took him in the 2018 draft 2nd round (58).  His PFF grade is 47.8, 82nd amongst Safeties.  He has 29 Tackles and 1 Hurry on the season.  Andre Cisco was put on IR and will be out for this game.Special Teams

Starter

2nd

3rd

4th

PK

Nick Folk

P

Austin McNamara

H

Austin McNamara

PR

Isaiah Williams

Isaiah Davis

KR

Kene Nwangwu

Isaiah Williams

Khalil Herbert O

Isaiah Davis

LS

Thomas  Hennessy

The Jets have very good Special Teams.  Old friend Nick Folk was thought to be washed up three years ago by the Patriots when they traded him to Tennessee.  Au Contraire, Folk is the 3rd ranked FG kicker in the league making 19 of 19 kicks.  He has made 16 of 18 Extra Points.  Austin McMamara has also done well ranking 7th with a 44.9 net Yards per punt.  Isaiah Williams is the 4th ranked Punt Returner with a14.3 YPR.  He had a Punt Return for a TD last week versus Cleveland.  Kene Nwangwu had a 99 yard Kickoff Return for a TD last week as well.Offensive Line GradesI usually put this in my notebook article, but since we are on a short week I am combining it in my Preview article.Although the Offensive Line gave up only one sack, Drake Maye was pressured on 47% of his dropbacks.  Maye was 4 for 11 when the Bucs blitzed and threw for 167 yards and TD on those 4 completions.  He hit that big 72-yard TD to Kyle Williams when he checked down at the line of scrimmage.  The line and Hooper picked up the blitz, but a defender was right on top of Maye when he unleashed the throw to Williams.  Todd Bowles is known for his exotic blitz packages and they blitz often.  Maye on the other hand is one of the best QBs in the league this year against the blitz.  Remarkable for a 2nd year QB.

Season

Atlanta Game

Season Stats

Overall

Offense

Pass Blck

Run Blck

Sacks

QB Hits

Hurries

Pressure

Campbell

71.4 (27)

72.1

75

66.2

5

3

12

20

Wilson

50.7 (64)

46.1

60.4

41.4

4

5

12

21

Bradbury

63.7 (17)

50.1

39.1

53.7

0

2

6

8

Onwenu

67.3 (24)

51.8

40.7

54.9

1

1

13

15

Moses

66.6 (37)

60.3

50.7

65.3

1

2

14

17

Season

Tampa Bay Game

Season Stats

Overall

Offense

Pass Blck

Run Blck

Sacks

QB Hits

Hurries

Pressure

Campbell

71.2 (26)

63.7

62.4

61.4

5

4

15

24

Wilson

46 (79)

39.2

60

40.3

4

6

12

22

Bradbury

59.5 (27)

50.1

39.1

53.7

0

2

6

8

Onwenu

67 (27)

51.8

40.7

54.9

1

1

13

15

Moses

66.9 (38)

60.3

50.7

65.3

1

2

14

17

Drake Maye Flowers of the WeekNumber of players in NFL HISTORY to have 2500+ passing yards, 70.0+ completion %,  250+ rushing yards, and 5 or fewer interceptions through 10 games of a season:  1. Drake Maye (2025). That’s it.Coming and Going The Patriots announced today they have re-signed RB Jonathan Ward to the Practice Squad.  The veteran has played in the NFL for Arizona, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh. He has played 46 games, rushing for 91 yards and catching six passes for 52 yards. Ward played 10 games for Mike Vrabel’s Titans teams in 2022 and 2023.  To make room for Ward the Patriots released WR Brenden Rice the son of Hall of Famer Jerry Rice.PredictionThe Jets should not be able to play on the same field as the Patriots.  Oddsmakers opened the line with the Patriots being 12 points favorites.  That line went up to 12.5 as of today.   Two factors will impact that number.  The game is being played on Thursday, on a short week which could keep it a close game.  Additionally, the temperature is expected to be in the 30’s.  This may make it more difficult to pass.  Add to that, Rhamondre Stevenson, Kayshon Boutte and Austin Hooper have been listed as out. Terrell Jennigs is listed as Questionable.  I expect that D’Ernest Johnson will be elevated for a final time for Thursday and possibly bring up either Jonathan Ward or Rushaun Baker as well, depending on the availability of Jennings.  Baker is a little bit bigger and may get the call.  Christian Ellis has also been ruled out for the 2nd straight game.  Do the Patriots elevate Darius Harris again or is the need for a 3rd TE like CJ Dippre more important.The Jets will be without WR Garrett Wilson and CB Azareye’h Thomas who was replacing Sauce Gardiner.  That means Ja’Sir Taylor or Qwan’tez Stiggers will be inserted as the starter.I think this game will be closer than the point spread but I see no reason why the Patriots shouldn’t win this game at home on a short week of preparation.  They are just the better team.  We need to watch out for there Special Teams as bot Punt Return and Kickoff returner had TDs last week.  I predict 24-13 Patriots.

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About Mark MorseMerrimack Valley native and lifelong fan of the New England Patriots. My earliest memories of the Patriots were attending as a child with my dad, the off-season practice at Phillips Academy. I was at the Patriots game at Harvard Stadium in 1970 where Bob “Harpo” Gladieux was called out of the stands by the stadium announcer over the PA to play in the game. Analyzing the draft since ESPN first started to televise it in 1980 and former writer for the Lowell Sun Newspaper.View all posts by Mark Morse

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