Strap in, friends, I’m here to predict the improbable and sometimes ridiculous on purpose. Bold Predictions: Week 11, AFC West Edition. If you’re looking for logic-supported certainty, this ain’t it. These are swing-for-it outcomes brewed from malts & hops and poor life choices. I do look at the schedule and matchup data, if that makes you more comfy. But this goodness comes mostly from the knowledge that the NFL does what it wants – expectations be damned.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Patrick Mahomes
Nov 2, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) reacts in the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
Mahomes Silences Mile High: 4 TD passes with 300+ yards and 70% completions.
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Why It Will Happen: Denver’s secondary is nicked, and the pass rush has to win instantly or it’s seven-on-seven for 15 yards a pop. Reid’s self-scout off the Week 10 bye tightens the situational stuff and turbocharges the middle-of-the-field read game.
Why It Won’t Happen: Altitude plus a surging Denver front can turn clean pockets into scramble drills. If Kansas City loses first downs, the script becomes checkdowns and field goals.
Pacheco Pounds Anyway: 110+ rush yards and a receiving TD.
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Why It Will Happen: Two-high shells to contain explosive throws invite light boxes and a downhill run menu that hits. Kansas City’s screen game doubles as run game insurance, and Pacheco eats chunk yards after first contact.
Why It Won’t Happen: Early penalties flip the call sheet and force pass volume. Denver will win edges and tackle clean, so the explosives never arrive.
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Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Nov 9, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) passes the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the fourth quarter of the game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Herbert Paints the Corners: 80% completions and 3 TD with a 120+ passer rating.
Why It Will Happen: The motion-and-option tree isolates linebackers and turns third-and-medium into pitch-and-catch. Play-action from under center opens crossers that Herbert rips on time.
Why It Won’t Happen: If Jacksonville’s rush wins with four, the menu compresses to flats and checkdowns. A second-half run lean to salt the game caps attempts.
Defense Dictates: Chargers hold Jacksonville to under 6.0 yards per pass and force 3 turnovers.
Why It Will Happen: Trap corners with late safety spin bait, one throw too many, and the edges close escape lanes. A couple of short fields flip the game state and force desperation drives.
Why It Won’t Happen: If the Jags stay patient with quick game and screens, L.A.’s front never cashes. One early blown coverage can wreck the per-attempt number.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys
Raiders tight end Brock Bowers facing the Jacksonville Jaguars
Dec 22, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (89) carries the ball against Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Jarrian Jones (22) in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Brock Bowers Goes National: 7 catches, 125+ yards, and a red-zone TD.
Why It Will Happen: Vegas leans hard into seam and over routes off play-action, and the Cowboys’ eyes get stuck in the backfield just long enough. Formational stress with motion creates free releases and YAC angles.
Why It Won’t Happen: If Dallas brackets the hash and hits the QB early, the ball funnels to the leftovers. A compressed red zone turns targets into field goals, not six.
Cowboys Corralled: Dallas held under 19 points with zero plays over 35 yards.
Why It Will Happen: Maxx Crosby-led rush with simulated pressure keeps a lid on explosives while forcing long fields. Situational discipline plus one takeaway in each half chokes off scoring windows.
Why It Won’t Happen: A single busted leverage or short-field special-teams swing breaks the lid. If Vegas trails and has to blitz to chase, the explosive levy breaks.
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
Nov 2, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) scrambles during the second half against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Explosive Math Lesson: Denver registers 4+ explosives and wins time of possession by 5+ minutes.
Why It Will Happen: Shot plays off heavy play-action plus QB keepers stress a defense that lives on disguise, not brute force. Home crowd and tempo packages create the cadence advantage on money downs.
Why It Won’t Happen: If Kansas City wins early downs with run fits and TFLs, Payton’s shot menu never opens. A chase script turns explosives into empty calories.
Sack Wave Breaks: 5 sacks and Kansas City held under 24.
Why It Will Happen: Simulated pressure with on-time rotation forces hitches and long third downs where Denver can tee off. Crowd noise plus altitude amplifies edge get-off in the fourth quarter.
Why It Won’t Happen: Mahomes’ pocket drift and off-script answers blunt aggressive defensive fronts. If the Chiefs live in a quick game and screens, sack chances evaporate.
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