The Miami Dolphins find themselves facing a complicated future with Tua Tagovailoa. The organization built its offense around him, but the numbers on both the field and the contract tell a story that is harder to manage than to celebrate.
Nov 9, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) during the first half against the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Nov 9, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) during the first half against the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Tagovailoa’s 2026 cash figure of $55 million, nearly all guaranteed, limits the Dolphins’ flexibility.
Cutting him next offseason is unrealistic. The financial hit would linger far beyond the benefit. A post-June designation would leave nearly $100 million in dead money over two seasons, making a release almost unthinkable. The more logical path is a trade, but that comes with its ownset of challenges.
Few teams will want to take on a quarterback owed more than $55 million in guaranteed cash. Tagovailoa’s injury history and recent performance decline raise further questions about how much value he would bring in return.
His QBR has dropped each year since 2022,now sitting at 45.1 and ranking near the bottom of the league.
Tagovailoa has often looked sharp when everything around him falls into place. In Miami’s rhythm-based offense, he thrives on timing and precision, distributing the ball quickly to playmakers who stretch defenses.
Yet the system seems to shine even when his play does not. The scheme and the supporting cast often dictate success more than the quarterback’s individual brilliance.
For general manager Chris Grier, that dynamic creates a tough decision. Paying $55 million to a quarterback whose production has regressed is difficult to justify.
Still, moving on would mean absorbing significant costs. The front office must choose between paying him to stay or paying part of his salary to let him leave.
If the Dolphins were to take on $15 million of his guaranteed money and turn him into a one-year, $44 million option for another team, interest could grow. The question becomes whether that short-term relief outweighs the long-term risk of keeping him.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Cost of Conviction in Miami
Tagovailoa’s uncertain standing mirrors a broader league trend. The end of a quarterback’s third or fourth year now serves as the real evaluation window. Front offices must decide on future guarantees earlier, shaping draft and cap strategies well in advance.
In Houston, C.J. Stroud’s steady play makes his extension inevitable. In Indianapolis, Anthony Richardson Sr. has not done enough to warrant one. Miami sits between those extremes. Tagovailoa remains capable, but the cost of patience continues to rise.
This decision will define how the Dolphins move into 2026. Whether they choose to restructure, trade, or endure another season under the same setup, every outcome carries weight.
Miami’s high-speed offense may continue to produce, but the quarterback driving it stands at a financial crossroads that will test both the team’s conviction and creativity.