When the Minnesota Timberwolves traded for Rudy Gobert in the 2022 offseason, the team’s identity naturally shifted toward defense. And Minnesota’s formidable defense ultimately led it to back-to-back appearances in the Western Conference Finals.
In the 2023-24 season, their 108.4 defensive rating (DRTG) ranked first in the NBA. Last season, they finished sixth in the NBA with a DRTG of 110.8. Making the defense a focal point of the team’s identity only made sense for the Timberwolves, given their roster makeup.
Jaden McDaniels had just broken out as one of the league’s best young defenders, operating as a versatile piece at the point of attack and also as a help-side roamer. Gobert continued to display dominance in drop coverage on the interior, winning his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award in the 2023-24 season.
The Wolves also got meaningful production from other role players like crafty veteran Kyle Anderson and re-imagined Nickeil Alexander-Walker. They also had impactful size with Naz Reid, Karl-Anthony Towns, and later Julius Randle.
Now that some of the Wolves’ defensive infrastructure has either left or slowly declined, they are experiencing a team-wide identity shift as they focus more on their offense.
One of the easiest takeaways from Minnesota’s first 11 games of the season is that the offense has been one of the league’s best, while the defense has had numerous shortcomings. It has been a complete reversal from previous seasons.
It’s still early in the season, and the Timberwolves have had some favorable matchups. Still, they have been one of the league’s best and most efficient offenses, even while missing Anthony Edwards for five of those 11 games.
According to Cleaning the Glass, Minnesota’s offense ranks third in the NBA in offensive rating (ORTG) at 122. According to NBA.com, the Timberwolves also rank first in effective field goal percentage (58.8%) and true shooting percentage (62.3%).
“Continuity” was the biggest buzzword when the Timberwolves brought back their core for another season after the Oklahoma City Thunder beat them 4-1 in the Western Conference Finals. Surprisingly, that continuity has benefited them more on offense than defense.
The Timberwolves still had one of the league’s better offenses last season, according to Cleaning the Glass, ranking eighth in ORTG (116.8). Therefore, nobody should be surprised by Minnesota’s offensive success this season.
There will be some statistical anomalies with such a small sample, but Minnesota’s proven scorers are driving its offensive growth, suggesting its offensive leap is sustainable.
It starts with Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle
Somehow, someway, Edwards continues to improve every year. Edwards, 24, still hasn’t reached his prime, and he continues to build upon and retain everything he’s added to his game.
Edwards’s three-point (3P) shooting and playmaking have been his two primary areas of development.
The melding of these two skill sets, on top of Edwards’ downhill scoring he had upon entering the league, has created a monster. Edwards has become a true engine of Minnesota’s offense.
In Edwards’ six full games played, excluding the Indiana Pacers game in which he exited after three minutes with a hamstring injury, he has averaged 30.8 points per game. Per 36 minutes, Edwards is averaging 34.4 points per game.
Edwards is shooting an astonishing 50.4% from the field and 29 of 58 (50%) from three. The mid-range game has also flashed, with Edwards shooting 12 of 25 (48%) on non-paint two-point (2P) field goals and 17 of 23 (73%) at the rim.
Even with Minnesota’s offensive success as a unit, Edwards’ on/off data further emphasizes how vital he is to their success. When Edwards is on the court, the team has a 130.5 ORTG. However, when Edwards is off the court, the Timberwolves have a 116.3 ORTG. Altogether, the Timberwolves and Edwards have a plus-13.8 on/off ORTG.
Edwards has been the driving force of efficiency and Minnesota’s offensive engine. However, Julius Randle is right behind him.
When Randle is on the court, the Timberwolves have a 126.9 ORTG. Although when he is off the court, it sits at 107.7. Randle’s difference in on/off is a staggering plus-19.2 ORTG differential.
Scoring efficiency is where Randle has been the most effective to begin the season. He has averaged 25.4 points per game, shooting 53.9% from the field and 40% from three-point range.
Randle has been a true three-level scorer for Minnesota. He has shot 42% on above-the-break threes on 3.8 attempts per game. 49.2% on non-rim 2P field goals on 5.9 attempts per game, finishing 72.4% of his shots at the rim.
5.9 mid-range attempts per game can be an ineffective shot diet. Still, Randle has found a way to be efficient with his movement and touches in his mid-post possessions. Possessions featuring a Randle isolation are yielding 1.46 points per possession, the best in the NBA among players with two or more isolation possessions per game.
Minnesota’s scoring stars have created an easy environment for others, and Jaden McDaniels is one of the biggest benefactors.
McDaniels continues to ascend
Alexander-Walker’s departure to Atlanta was always going to leave a usage void in Minnesota’s offense. It was fair to assume that younger players like Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Jaylen Clark would see their usage increase. However, McDaniels has been most successful filling Alexander-Walker’s void.
When McDaniels shares the court with Edwards and Randle, they still rely upon him more as a spot-up player. Although when lineups are staggered, McDaniels has had more on-ball success, furthering the dynamic within Minnesota’s offense.
McDaniels always seemed to have the ability to be a change-of-pace third scoring option for Minnesota. Still, there has never been more evidence of him being able to find his shot, no matter the lineup or on-court context, than this season.
Through 11 games, McDaniels is averaging 18.6 points on 55% from the field and 53.8% from three.
His efficiency will likely regress to the mean, although there has been nothing in these first 11 games to suggest that McDaniels couldn’t easily be a 15-plus points-per-game scorer for the Timberwolves this season.
Other teammates like Rudy Gobert and Donte DiVincenzo have also driven Minnesota’s offense this year. Ultimately, the trio of Edwards, Randle, and McDaniels has delivered steady scoring, allowing the Timberwolves to remain cohesive as a unit while also bringing out the best in each player’s skill set.