In retrospect, expectations for J.J. McCarthy were probably out of whack. Still, there was good reason to believe that McCarthy could explode onto the scene for the Minnesota Vikings. Look at the offense they built for him! Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson were there to catch passes. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason were going to bring a new running element behind an improved offensive line.
That’s all great on paper, but in practice? It’s been a different story. Injuries, whether lingering (Christian Darrisaw‘s ACL) or continuing (Ryan Kelly‘s concussion), have led to the offensive line underperforming. The running game has been good, not great. And the receivers? They might be the biggest culprit of them all.
Aside from Jalen Nailor, that is.
Coming into this year, Nailor worked on changing his nickname from “Speedy” to “Beefy,” bulking up over the offseason in an effort not to let go of the WR3 spot entering his fourth season. He would need that extra work, as he had to fend off Adam Thielen, the embodiment of reliability during his long tenure with the Vikings.
Luckily for Nailor, it’s paid off in a big way. Nailor’s on pace for a career-high 36 receptions and 570 yards. Moreso, he’s establishing himself as having chemistry with McCarthy to a degree that no one else on the roster has. Nailor has caught 10 of his 16 targets (62.5%) from the first-year starter, the highest on the team.
These aren’t cheapies, either. We’re not talking about screen passes and short slants that go for a bunch of yards after the catch. McCarthy targets Nailor deeper than anyone else on the roster, an average of 17.4 yards past the line of scrimmage. While defenses worrying about Jefferson and Addison create room for Nailor, five of his targets from McCarthy have been contested, with Nailor winning four of those fights for the ball.
Jalen Nailor does it again, somehow keeps his feet in for the TD pic.twitter.com/L2sWTDnoAW
— CJ Fogler 🫡 (@cjzero) November 9, 2025
McCarthy isn’t necessarily better at delivering the ball to Nailor, but Nailor is ensuring that McCarthy’s throws aren’t wasted. That’s been a real value add for him, and a huge indictment of the other pass-catchers on the team.
Combine the stat lines of Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson, and the trio has been inferior to Nailor in almost every way. They have a collective 30 catches on 56 targets from McCarthy (53.4%). They’ve hauled in just four of 11 contested targets (36.4%). Most damningly, each of them has a drop in their four games with McCarthy, and five total, compared to Nailor’s zero. Jefferson himself has three drops to go with his 17 catches, making for a 15.0% drop rate. Contrast that with just 28 career drops against his 541 catches from any other quarterback (4.9%).
Justin Jefferson was making faces and shrugging his shoulders when JJ McCarthy was struggling
Now a HUGE play
GREAT throw in traffic by McCarthy
And Jefferson DROPS it in the clutch
JJettas has been struggling all day long
pic.twitter.com/TlX4AY8Wgj
— John Frascella (Football) (@NFLFrascella) November 9, 2025
That’s just, simply, not Justin Jefferson.
There are probably some weird factors and bad luck at play in these struggles. Stumbling on a third-and-one bomb that gets picked off? It can happen to anyone, even a superhuman like Jefferson. And of course, it’s hard to look over the fact that Jefferson’s preseason injury, Addison’s suspension, and McCarthy’s ankle injury made building chemistry difficult.
It’s also true that McCarthy hasn’t been blameless in this relationship. If we have to criticize Jefferson for not catching balls he typically has, we have to at least note that McCarthy has sailed very easy completions over Jefferson’s head, giving him no chance to make a play.
But McCarthy’s not supposed to be the safety net for Jefferson. It’s the other way around. That’s the whole deal. No one thought McCarthy was Drake Maye, who has to elevate the entire team on his talent alone. He was going to need help from Jefferson, from Addison, and from Hockenson to be greater than the sum of his parts.
So far, the only person raising McCarthy’s game like that is Nailor, whose salary cap hit represents a third of Addison’s, and less than 10% of Jefferson and Hockenson’s. That’s not a winning recipe, especially for a first-year starter. Maybe McCarthy would still struggle if that trio were playing at a high level, but we can’t know for sure what McCarthy’s talent level is until those three stars stop being part of the problem.