If the Steelers need help to weather the storm against the Bengals on Sunday, they might just get it from Mother Nature. According to projected forecasts, it’s going to be a windy one at Acrisure Stadium when the game kicks off. Right now, the game projects to start with 15-MPH northwesterly winds, with 27 MPH gusts. Other estimates predict wind gusts as high as 35 MPH. Oh, and did I mention there’s a 54-percent chance of our good friend, precipitation?
Those conditions seem projected to hold throughout the afternoon, so the Steelers could benefit from the weather against the Bengals. At least, they would seem to be at a greater advantage, because Cincinnati relies upon its aerial attack. Despite their best efforts—or at least, efforts—the Steelers’ vertical passing game has hardly featured this season.
The last time the Steelers played the Bengals, the weather was tame, with 5 MPH winds. For a night game, it was a comfortable 60 degrees, and Cincinnati’s passing game took off. Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards, of which a considerable portion went to Ja’Marr Chase. In that game, Chase caught 16 passes on 23 targets for 161 yards and 1 touchdown. Tee Higgins didn’t do bad for himself, either, with 96 yards and a score. But the defense was another matter, and still is for the Bengals.
According to research by The Athletic, we begin to see a clear drop in the effectiveness of passing games in the NFL with windspeeds of up to 15 MPH. The article doesn’t address wind gusts that nearly double that. There is a very significant impact at 25 MPH, as one might imagine, amplified if precipitation is involved, as well.
It’s not breaking news to either the Steelers or Bengals that the weather will impact an NFL game, of course. Given how Cincinnati is built, however, one would imagine Pittsburgh would prefer to play in the slop. Jaylen Warren is a mudder, as was his father before him. And his mother. His mother was a mudder.
Of course, the Steelers would have to actually give Warren carries against the Bengals to benefit from the weather conditions. They can continue to make all the excuses that they want for why he isn’t running the ball more, but they’re the ones suffering for it. Well, I suppose the fans watching it are suffering, too.
In reality, the Steelers will probably have to lean hard into the run game if the weather against the Bengals is that bad. The thing is, Cincinnati managed to run the ball effectively against them, anyway. In in recent weeks, they have really started using Chase Brown in the passing game. It might not be the prevailing narrative, but the Bengals can beat you in a lot of ways on offense. It’s not just the deep ball. But if you can give yourself one less thing to worry about, you take it.
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