Comparing scores against common opponents is not a perfect way to predict the outcome of future games, or to calculate chances to make the playoffs. The circumstances of every match-up are different. Was the other team playing at home? Were there critical players missing because of injury? Was weather a factor?
It’s good to keep those qualifications in mind, because when you examine a few of the common opponents the Green Bay Packers and their fellow NFC North opponents have played, the results are disturbing. For example, the Packers lost to the Cleveland Browns. The Lions beat that same Browns team 34-10. The Vikings beat them in Cleveland 21-17. The Packers tied the Dallas Cowboys. The Bears, by comparison, beat those same Cowboys 31-14. There are other concerning scores involving teams outside the division. Green Bay dropped a game at home to the Carolina Panthers. Those Panthers just got beat, at home, by the 2-7 Saints. Oh, and getting back to the Browns? They just lost to the 2-7 New York Jets, even after the Jets had just traded away their two best defensive players.
Doesn’t mean a thing you say? Maybe. But I find it unsettling at best. I bring this up because the Packers are about to play the New York Giants on Sunday. The Giants are 2-8, so once again, Green Bay figures to be a heavy favorite. Don’t bet on it. The Packers just lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 10-7. That same Eagles team was throttled by the Giants in Week 6 by a score of 34-17. Since then, the Giants have lost their star receiver Malik Nabors, and their budding star running back, Cam Skattebo, for the season. Emerging quarterback Jaxon Dart is out for this game after suffering a concussion last Sunday. New York fired head coach Brian Daboll after Sunday’s loss to the Bears, so this will be interim head coach Mike Kafka’s first game at the helm. He was the offensive coordinator. Back-up quarterback Russell Wilson has been such a bust, Kafka announced that third stringer Jameis Winston will start against the Pack.
In other words, the Giants are a mess. The Packers should be able to march into Metlife stadium, dominate, and fly home with a convincing win. Just like they were supposed to do against the Browns, Cowboys and Panthers. Oddsmakers have installed Green Bay as a seven point favorite. Yet I would venture to say there are few Packer fans who feel secure about this game. Justifiably so.
Two straight losses have dropped the Packers into the middle of the NFC standings. With so many improved teams in the conference, the wild card race is going to be a free-for-all. It is looking more and more as though the more likely path to the playoffs is to win the division. That also secures a first round home game. Considering Green Bay has just lost back-to-back games at home, maybe that’s not a big deal, but it should count for something.
The NFL, in an effort to create more drama in the latter half of the season, has scheduled the majority of division games in the final seven weeks. Five of the Packers final seven games will be against NFC North foes. It is those five games that will determine Green Bay’s fate. Fortunately, or maybe unfortunately, depending on how you look at it, the division seems wide open. The top three teams, Lions, Bears and Packers, are separated by just half a game. The Vikings are two games back, but few would doubt they have the talent to beat anyone. If they get any kind of consistency from young quarterback JJ McCarthy, they will be right in the thick of it.
Getting back to comparing games, it will get you nowhere in figuring out who is going to win the division. The Vikings have beaten the Lions, the Lions have beaten the Bears, the Packers have beaten the Lions. Good luck figuring out who has the upper hand in this frenetic upcoming round robin.
One thing for sure, the Packers will struggle to beat anybody if they don’t get their offensive problems solved. Perhaps that will begin to happen against a beat-up Giants team this weekend. After that, buckle your seat belt for a challenging ride through the division. The North is winnable. But it’s certainly not predictable.