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NFL WEEK 11 PICKS: Taking the Chiefs off their bye should be easy money

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Taking the Chiefs coming off a loss and coming off their bye week should be as safe of a bet as they come

Published Nov 14, 2025 • Last updated 8 minutes ago • 3 minute read

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) heads off the field following win against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) heads off the field following win against the Las Vegas Raiders. AP Photo

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The lines are from Covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.

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New York Jets +13 over NEW ENGLAND

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Justin Fields just isn’t an NFL-calibre QB. What the Jets saw in him this off-season to think he was a viable starting option is mind-boggling. He could thrive in the CFL, though.

Miami -2.5 over Washington in Madrid

The Commanders have too many fires to put out and a trip to Spain ain’t going to help. The Dolphins are somehow keeping things together and have some dangerous weapons in De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle.

JACKSONVILLE +3 over L.A. Chargers

This should be the week that the Chargers will pay for their offensive line injuries, even if we’re not very hot about backing the utterly mediocre Trevor Lawrence.

Tampa Bay +5.5 over BUFFALO

The Bucs have the run defence to bottle up the ground attack of Josh Allen and James Cook, which seems to be enough to stifle Buffalo these days. The Bills defence once again appears to be in trouble, too.

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Chicago +3 over MINNESOTA

The Vikings came back to beat the Bears by three in Week 1 thanks to a terrific fourth quarter by J.J. McCarthy. Well, McCarthy has very much failed to impress since and we’re not sure why the Bears are getting a field goal now.

NEW YORK GIANTS +7 over Green Bay

That Packers offence looked seriously off without Tucker Kraft in the lineup on Monday night. And while the Pack might have been an easy pick if Russell Wilson was starting, this Giants’ fresh start with Brian Daboll fired and Jameis Winston is intriguing, to say the least.

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Houston -7 over TENNESSEE

It could be Davis Mills again for Houston and that’s kind of fine – it’s still better than Cam Ward and this Titans offence, which was shut out by the Texans in Week 4.

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ATLANTA -3.5 over Carolina

If you don’t think the Falcons have had this one circled since getting shutout in Carolina earlier this season, you’re crazy. It’s also not like the Panthers offence has been thriving either, putting up a total of 45 points over their past four games.

PITTSBURGH -5.5 over Cincinnati

With high winds in the forecast, that doesn’t bode well for a Bengals team that likes to air it out. They should have a better answer for Ja’Marr Chase this time around, too.

ARIZONA +2.5 over San Francisco

Brock Purdy looks like he’ll return for the Niners, but the question remains how will San Fran create pressure with so many pass rushers out?

Seattle +3 over L.A. RAMS

Right now, these are the top two teams in the NFC and they just happen to be division rivals. Both are as solid and well-rounded as they come, but we’ll give an edge to the Seahawks thanks to their defence and the bonus three points.

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Kansas City -4 over DENVER

That the Chiefs are getting more than a field goal on the road in Denver is telling when it comes to the quality of these two teams. It’s too hard to trust Bo Nix and taking the Chiefs coming off a loss and coming off their bye week should be as safe of a bet as they come.

Baltimore -7.5 over CLEVELAND

With Dillon Gabriel at QB, the Browns simply aren’t a serious team. The Ravens are taking back control of the division after a rough start, one week at a time.

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[Minkah Fitzpatrick of the Miami Dolphins tackles Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills during the fourth quarter of their game last week.

Bills fan begs 'cursed' Toronto supporters to stop cheering for Buffalo](https://torontosun.com/sports/football/nfl/bills-cursed-toronto-fans-stop-cheering-buffalo)

2. [A moment of silence is held for Marshawn Kneeland prior to the game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Nov. 10, 2025, in Green Bay, Wis.

Late Cowboys player Marshawn Kneeland’s girlfriend revealed to be pregnant](https://torontosun.com/sports/football/marshawn-kneeland-girlfriend-reported-pregnant)

PHILADELPHIA -2.5 over Detroit

As much as the vibes may be off in Philly, they still keep on winning. The Lions got their bounce-back last week, but the Commanders were much more ripe for the picking than this Eagles defence ever will be.

LAS VEGAS +3 over Dallas

The emotions will be running high for the Cowboys in their first game since Marshawn Kneeland’s death, but just how is this defence going to stop Brock Bowers?

Last week: 5-9

This season: 68-80-1

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