This was supposed to be a coming-of-age season fourth-year Miami Heat forward Nikola Jovic. We said it. A dialed-in analyst and former executive said it. Even the Heat themselves metaphorically said it, fueling all of the buzz by handing him a four-year, $62.4 million extension and starting him (for the opener) over prized-prospect center Kel'el Ware.
Jovic's leap year hasn't materialized, though. Not yet, anyway. As the stat sheet sees it, he's actually regressing—not elevating. His shot has gone haywire, his turnovers have piled up, and he has frankly looked lost (or at least unsure of himself) within Miami's revamped offense. While the Heat are surely hoping he can turn things around, this is already veering uncomfortably close to wasted-season territory.
The Heat need Jovic to get on track, because their ceiling only reaches so high without a leap year from him.
Without a superstar on the roster, Miami needs reliability from its role players more than most. And Jovic has, so far, been anything but dependable.
He's supposed to be a knockdown shooter, yet he's only topped 40 percent from the field in four of his 12 outings. Playmaking is a big part of his appeal, but his assist percentage (17.2) actually lags behind his turnover percentage (18.5), per Basketball-Reference.com. He should be an ignitable scorer, but he's only cleared double-digits four times and hit 20-plus points just twice.
"It's about an intention and a maturity, professionalism all the time," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters recently. "You know, that's what we've always been on him about. ... It's still not where it needs to be, because he's young, he doesn't see that it's always important, but he's getting there. And that it's a matter of consistency."
While the Heat shouldn't have expected Jovic to figure it all out at once, they were surely counting on more signs of improvement than this. Miami's free-flowing, movement-based offense should be doing wonders for his shooting profile, yet his connection clips have dipped from all three levels.
The Heat tried entrusting him with a starting spot on opening night, but they haven't even bothered since. He's not even guaranteed to spend half of the game inside the lines.
Again, all of the early-season caveats apply here, but early disappointments are sometimes just a sign of further disappointments ahead. He could snap out of this, sure, but maybe this is all just hinting at a backward step.
The good news is he's still been a positive floor presence for Miami, which has fared 7.7 points better per 100 possessions with him than without, per NBA.com. The less encouraging part of that, though, is that number stems largely from what others are doing around him than what he's actually contributing.
The excitement around his season existed for a reason. His skill set is unique, particularly at his size, and he's only 22 years old. His arrow could still be pointing all the way up. But excitement only lasts for so long. With winning right now seemingly on the table for this squad, the hopes of what Jovic might one day become aren't nearly as important as the player he is right now.