The NFC North is a wild hunt. The Packers are still in it, the Lions are dominating, and now it’s Bears vs Vikings in a Week 11 dogfight that could send one team to the playoffs and the other to the draft board. It’s Caleb Williams vs. chaos in Minnesota. Let’s break down if Chicago can walk into U.S. Bank Stadium, punch the Vikings in the mouth, and walk out at 7-3.
Ben Johnson has turned this Bears offense into a sledgehammer. Since Week 5, they’re running for 183.4 yards per game. D’Andre Swift has 544 yards and 4 touchdowns on 113 carries (4.8 YPC), while rookie Kyle Monangai adds 186 yards on 42 attempts (4.4 YPC). Swift is averaging 2.8 yards before contact and 1.9 after, with 18 broken tackles.
The offensive line is nasty. PFF ranks them 7th overall. Joe Thuney hasn’t allowed a single pressure and earned an 89.6 pass-blocking grade in Week 9. Darnell Wright’s run-blocking grade hit 95.5 with the best individual run block of the week. The unit leads the league in time to throw (3.22 seconds) and average time to pressure (4.37 seconds).
Chicago is also a turnover machine. Their +14 turnover margin leads the league. They’ve forced 20 takeaways (13 INTs, 7 fumble recoveries) and committed only six turnovers. That’s how you win tight games.
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Minnesota’s Identity Crisis
The Vikings are inconsistent and on the brink. At 4-5, their playoff odds swing from 10.7% with a loss to 32% with a win. J.J. McCarthy is completing 53.7% of his passes with 5 TDs and 6 INTs. His passer rating when targeting Justin Jefferson is 49.4 — the worst on the team.
Jefferson has 51 receptions, 686 yards, and 2 TDs, but the chemistry is broken. He’s publicly frustrated. The offense ranks 27th in Pro Football Network’s OFFi, and the red zone offense converts touchdowns at just 48.3% — 28th in the league.
Their O-line is decimated. PFF ranks it 30th overall. The Vikings are also 1-3 at home.
Key Matchup: Bears OL vs. Vikings Run Defense
Minnesota allows 125.6 rushing yards per game (26th in the NFL) and 4.2 YPC. Their rush defense EPA cratered from -0.203 (best) in 2024 to 0.016 (26th) in 2025. Six of nine opponents have topped 100 rushing yards. Two went over 200.
Flores runs a blitz-heavy 3-4 with a league-high 48.7% blitz rate, but it leaves light boxes that can’t hold up. Injuries to linebackers Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel hurt their ability to stop the run earlier this season. Chicago should find a way to exploit this.
Matchup advantage breakdown shows Bears dominating in run game, turnovers, and offensive line while Vikings hold edge in pressure defense
Caleb vs. Chaos
Caleb Williams has cut his sack rate in half from 10.8% to 5.1%. Through nine games, he’s taken only 14 sacks. His completion rate is up to 60.8%, with 2,136 yards, 13 TDs, and 4 INTs (92.2 rating).
His average time to throw is 3.17 seconds — the highest in the NFL — and he ranks 38th in pressure-to-sack rate, showing he’s escaping cleanly.
Flores’ defense is tricky. They lead the NFL in pressure rate (47.6% in Week 9) and blitz like maniacs on early downs (53.4% on 1st, 55.5% on 2nd-and-long). But Chicago’s prepped for it. Williams said, “They disguise well, they move well, and they blitz from everywhere.” Johnson’s game plan will lean on quick reads and designed rollouts.
The Bears’ Secondary is Held Together with Duct Tape
Chicago’s defense is 27th in yards allowed (375.7 YPG) and 25th in run defense (135.3 YPG). The secondary is banged up. Jaquan Brisker and T.J. Edwards both missed practice all week. Stevenson is limited. Brisker’s absence would be huge — he’s got 46 tackles, a sack, and a pick.
Minnesota’s hope lies with Jefferson and Aaron Jones. Jones has a 115.3 passer rating when targeted, and if McCarthy gets in rhythm with dump-offs and screens, the Bears’ defense could crack. But that depends on avoiding early-down failures, which hasn’t happened much.
The Vibes: All Chicago
Chicago’s won six of their last seven. They’ve scored 25+ points in four straight wins. Minnesota’s offense is wildly inconsistent. The Bears are 3-2 on the road, with wins in Vegas, Cincy, and Baltimore. They’re peaking.
The Bears are 5th in third-down defense (34.4% allowed). Minnesota converts just 31.8% (22nd). That’s a recipe for stalled drives.
Ben Johnson is out-coaching everyone in the second half. Chicago owns time of possession, wins the turnover battle, and has an identity. Minnesota? Not so much.
Bears’ win percentage progression shows dramatic turnaround from 0-2 start to 66.7% winning percentage
Final Verdict
Chicago wins because they control the trenches, own the clock, and don’t implode. Minnesota will land some shots — probably a Jefferson deep ball or a Jones screen — but they won’t sustain drives. McCarthy hasn’t proven he can be consistent for four quarters.
The Bears will pound the rock, stay ahead of the sticks, and avoid dumb mistakes. One explosive Swift run and a red zone TD late will ice it.
Bears take it, 27-20. Playoff hopes? Alive and well. Vikings? Time to fire up the draft board.