Stop me if you’ve heard this before: NBA teams are scoring more than ever.
In six of the past nine seasons, the league has set a new high-water mark for offensive efficiency. The latest record came in 2023-24, when teams averaged 115.3 points per 100 possessions (i.e., “offensive rating”)—the league had never eclipsed 110.0 prior to 2018-19.
This season, the NBA’s average offensive rating is up to 115.7. That already would be an all-time record, but consider that scoring tends to rise over the course of the season. In 19 of the past 20 years, league-wide scoring efficiency was higher at the end of the season than it was after the first month of the schedule. At this point in last year’s calendar, the NBA’s offensive rating was only 113.8; it finished at 114.8.
The reason for this year-over-year bump is not the usual suspect. Three-point shooting drove the 2010s offensive boom, but teams are shooting the long ball this year about as frequently as last year’s record attempt rate, and accuracy on those shots hasn’t changed either.
Teams are scoring more this season because they are embracing “bully ball”—crashing the glass and drawing fouls.
As foreshadowed during the preseason, offensive rebounding is way up, with teams grabbing about 31% of their own misses per NBA.com. That would be the highest rate in nearly two decades. Pursuing offensive rebounds was once seen as not worth the risk of fewer defenders back in transition, but the conventional wisdom is changing. Possessions after offensive rebounds prove to be especially valuable, since they start with the ball close to the basket and the defense scrambling.
Free-throw attempts have also spiked, with teams taking 25.3 per 100 possessions. That’s a massive increase from 21.8 last season and the highest mark since 2010-11, when players took far more shots inside the 3-point arc, where fouls are more common.
The NBA published three officiating “points of emphasis” before this season, all of which involve types of plays that would theoretically lead to more defensive fouls: closeouts on jump shots and straight-line pathway drives. Those guidelines seem to be having an effect, particularly the latter. Shooting foul rate on 3-pointers increased from 1.1% to 1.3%, but the foul rate on drives has risen from 7.2% to 8.2%.
Foul rates tend to decline as the season goes on, but those are still significant increases. In addition to more foul shots being taken, teams are also shooting a record 79% from the stripe so far.
NBA teams keep finding a way to push the offensive efficiency ceiling higher. New strategic shifts certainly factor in, but the league is also helping offenses by dictating how the game is officiated.