In-season firings can not only create unpredictability for the team that lets the head coach go, but also for their next opponent in line. The New York Giants fired Brian Daboll after their loss to the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Next up on the schedule? The Green Bay Packers.
Could the Giants get the immediate boost against the Packers that we sometimes witness following a head coach’s firing?
There’s only one example of it so far this year. The Tennessee Titans let head coach Brian Callahan go in October. The following week, the Titans lost to New England 31-13.
However, that hasn’t always been the trend.
Since 2018, when the Packers fired Mike McCarthy in the middle of a campaign, there have been 16 head coaches fired during the season. The following week, those teams have gone 8-8. Green Bay fired McCarthy in 2018 after a loss to the Arizona Cardinals, and the following week, the Packers knocked off the Atlanta Falcons, 34-20.
How will the Packers fare against a Giants team in flux on Sunday? All factors have to be considered.
Jameis Winston is expected to start for the Giants, while Jaxson Dart remains in concussion protocol, interim head coach Mike Kafka announced on Wednesday. It would be Winston’s first start with the Giants and a significant downgrade from Dart in terms of what the Packers would have to prepare for.
What the Giants have going for them is that they’ll be playing at home and welcoming in a Green Bay squad that is very much on the ropes. After back-to-back offensive no-shows against the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles and some terrible injury luck, the Packers are a wounded team lacking confidence. What version of Green Bay shows up Sunday is anyone’s guess.
That’s also the case with New York. Giants co-owners John Mara and Steve Tisch said as much Monday when they pulled the plug on the Daboll era.
”The past few seasons have been nothing short of disappointing, and we have not met our expectations for this franchise,” they said in a joint statement on Monday. “We understand the frustrations of our fans, and we will work to deliver a significantly improved product.”
The results of some of these Giants games have been truly wild indeed.
The Giants led the New Orleans Saints 14-3 in Week 5 before the Saints scored the final 23 points and won 26-14. It’s one of only two W’s this year for New Orleans.
In unfathomable fashion, the Giants led the Denver Broncos 19-0 in the fourth quarter back in Week 7. After allowing zero points through three quarters, New York gave up 33 in the final 15 minutes, losing a 33-32 heartbreaker as time expired on a game-sealing field-goal attempt.
As if those two weren’t enough, the Giants led Chicago on Sunday 20-10 with less than four minutes to go. The Bears, whose offense had been invisible for much of the afternoon, went on back-to-back touchdown drives late to win 24-20.
For the Packers, getting a status quo Giants team on the schedule this week would have been preferable. Not facing Dart on Sunday would otherwise be a big advantage for Green Bay. Instead, it only increases volatility in unpredictable situations.
They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. That’s what it felt like watching the Giants in recent weeks. Now they will be forced to do something different.
Then there’s the consummate X-factor in Winston. Consider his first start with other organizations.
In his rookie debut in 2015, Winston had 210 yards passing with two touchdowns and two interceptions for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
After a lot more experience as a QB1, Winston started his first game for the New Orleans Saints in 2021. Interestingly enough, it came against Green Bay in the season opener. Winston completed 70% of his passes against the Packers, threw five touchdowns and no interceptions, and New Orleans won 38-3.
At his most recent pit stop before arriving in New York, Winston got his first nod in Cleveland last year. The Browns were 1-6 as they handed the keys to Winston against the Baltimore Ravens. Winston threw for 334 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, and Cleveland won 29-24.
It’s fair to wonder if New York will get a jolt of energy from a new voice in Kafka, and if they will also experience the Jameis Winston boost in his first start with the team, given his numbers in this exact spot at previous stops.
I don’t care what the record is, I don’t care what the circumstances, situation or facts is, I always say what I want for myself, I want for everyone. I’m a solutions-oriented guy, so I want to be a part of the solution. I don’t just want to run away when things get bad.
That’s what Winston said earlier this month via ESPN. Now he’ll have a chance to be part of the solution on Sunday after the Giants have started 2-8 for a third year in a row.
Green Bay probably would’ve preferred to have operations continue as planned against the Giants. That’s not the case, turning a presumably inferior opponent into an unknown entity.