I downright loathe the topic of Mike Tomlin being traded. It’s all bark and no bite. A media fodder discussion that comes up every year and amounts to nothing. The stuff Mike Florio loves teasing (seriously, he does it so flippin’ often for a bunch of coaches that I am literally typing extra words just to make room for more links) but even recently seems resigned to the fact it doesn’t happen, paying less attention to calls of Tomlin and the Giants than he usually does.
The last true head coach trade, one actively coaching a team (so discounting Sean Payton and Bruce Arians) was Herm Edwards after the 2005 season. That took place one month before the Steelers won Super Bowl XL and was largely over a contract dispute.
These things simply don’t happen. But, if it does with Mike Tomlin, here’s when it would make the most sense. Not after this season for the 2026 offseason. Give it another year, after 2026 and leading into 2027. For a bunch of reasons.
One, and maybe most importantly, the contract. Mike Tomlin signed his latest extension in June of 2024. It’s a deal that runs through the 2027 season. Art Rooney II has always handed out extensions no later than the summer of that final year of the deal to avoid the “lame duck” head coach. It’s a practice most of the NFL follows.
No coach wants to go into an expiring contract. It’s harder to convince free agents to sign long-term if there’s a worry the coach will be gone next year (even though 25 percent of the league gets fired each year). And it draws plenty of media attention. It was a massive story when Mike McCarthy coached out the final year of his deal with Dallas, exiting after the 2024 season.
That could put Rooney in a thorny spot. If Pittsburgh’s stagnation continues, will Rooney pony up another contract in the summer of 2026? Tomlin is one of the highest-paid coaches not just in the NFL but American sports. Each time he gets a contract without a playoff win added to his resume, the harder it is to justify.
Rooney could fire Tomlin after 2025 or 2026. That is always an option. But it risks eating the money, something Rooney and the franchise hates to do. They rarely fire coaches and prefer for them to simply expire before moving on. Matt Canada was a major outlier. I suppose Tomlin may have contract offsets if he takes another job, but a head coach fired in Pittsburgh hasn’t happened since Bill Austin in 1968.
A trade moves on from Tomlin, doesn’t require Rooney to foot the bill, and brings in compensation in return for the next head coach.
It would also be ceremonial. A “neat” way to close the chapter. By the close of 2026, Tomlin will have coached in Pittsburgh for exactly 20 years. He’ll almost certainly have surpassed Chuck Noll for most regular season wins. He’s currently five away, 193 to 188. Assuming Pittsburgh doesn’t finish the regular season with 11 victories, a safe bet, Tomlin will do no better in 2025 than tie.
It’ll be easier for Rooney to say: Mike Tomlin went to two Super Bowls, won one, coached 20 years, and won more games than any other Steelers coach. He’s done all he can do. Chapter closed.
A Tomlin exit would potentially coincide with Cam Heyward’s final run. And almost certainly Aaron Rodgers’ if he returns in 2026 and if he returns to the Steelers (I’m still watching if Minnesota will take an offseason swing; the Vikings clearly aren’t sold on J.J. McCarthy). Heyward is only under contract through next year and a Rodgers return, which Pittsburgh seems highly receptive to, would be another one-year deal.
Consider it the last hurrah for those guys and a clean break to step into whatever comes next. Not to mention T.J. Watt and Jalen Ramsey are only signed through 2028 and will be well into their 30s ahead come the 2027 offseason.
A move next year wouldn’t require any change with GM Omar Khan. Hiring head coaches and general managers separately is always a little messy. Most teams do it at the same time to find the right mesh. But a new head coach could have a one-year test run with Khan, who is signed through 2028, with Rooney making a decision on the other side.
Making a general manager change is also rare in Pittsburgh but of course, this assumption builds in a Mike Tomlin trade. If that happens, everything else is on the table. We’ve seen head coaches win the Steelers power struggle before (see Cowher vs Donahoe).
The calculation of “who will replace Tomlin?” largely shouldn’t factor into the decision, though it’s a common retort. That’s not how positions of power get evaluated. It’s pass/fail. Either they deserve to stay on the job for their merits or they don’t. Otherwise, you’re hanging on and looking over your shoulder for a prettier option. Still, just as NFL scouts keep tabs on what’s in front of them and what’s ahead, the 2026 coaching carousel looks bleak. There is not a strong pool of candidates. No can’t-miss name like Ben Johnson to make a run at.
Just look at the bulk of the list The Athletic offered one month ago: Kliff Kingsbury, Mike McCarthy, Matt Nagy, Arthur Smith and Joe Brady lead it. Kingsbury failed as a head coach already, McCarthy is just “we have Mike Tomlin at home” (literally, considering he’s a Greenfield native), Bills’ fans despise Brady (Joe and Tom), promoting Smith inspires no one, and Nagy – how did he get on the list? For a Steelers’ job that comes upon less often than the Pope’s, this isn’t the time to make a change.
Although half of each year’s shiny hires inevitably implode, victims of the Peter Principle, the options look as bad as ever.
Is a Tomlin trade ever going to happen? Probably not. Tomlin has agency and can’t be shopped around like a player. And the history says it just doesn’t happen in the modern NFL. Like Noll and Cowher, Tomlin is likely to go out on his terms.
I’m not advocating for the move. I’m agnostic. Or really, just ignoring what feels like noise. This dream scenario blogged up from other outlets. Football’s equivalent to the school class president offering free pizza everyday. Meaningless prose.
But if there’s a time to have the conversation, it’s next year. We know for a fact teams have expressed interest. Rooney confirmed the Chicago Bears called about Tomlin this past offseason. Most teams would jump at the chance to hire him. If Pittsburgh still hasn’t found a first round quarterback and can’t get past the Wild Card round in 2025 or 2026, a deal that sends Tomlin to wherever for a 2027 first-round pick that would pair a new head coach with a first round quarterback feels like the match.
Now, I’m going back to not talking about it. Until I have to when Mike Florio brings it up again.
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