Fan Confidence
As measured by our Reacts survey this week, fan confidence has fallen to just 32% among Hogs Haven readers, the lowest point of the season excepting the 27% nadir reached in Week 8.
The clear proximate cause for this loss of confidence is the current 5-game losing streak, which includes losses by a margin of 21 points or more in each of the last four games. But the issues likely go well beyond that losing streak.
The manner of the losses, in which the team’s defense has looked uncompetitive and the team overall has appeared overmatched, simply doesn’t inspire confidence. The week-by-week accretion of injuries that has led to a constant degradation in the roster strength has been insidious and troubling. The apparent inability of the coaching staff to reverse these trends has been possibly the most distressing.
Washington is playing bad football
At this point, the ineptness of the Washington defense appears to have no equal in the league aside from the Cincinnati Bengals who offer an AFC analogue of defensive incompetence. Beyond that, the football played by the Commanders over the past several weeks has resulted in the NFL’s longest current losing streak. When it comes to intensity and skill displayed on the field, Washington now belongs in a group of teams that Commanders fans likely would have scoffed at prior to the start of the regular season — the Titans, Jets, Giants, Saints, Raiders and Browns.
The Commanders have a better record than all of those teams, but that is due to Washington’s early-season success when the team won 3 of its first 5 games. In this respect, it is more similar to other 3-win teams like the Bengals and Falcons, who started well before running into difficulties. As we enter Week 11, the Commanders are playing bad football — basically, as bad as any other team in the NFL, regardless of record.
Who wins the battle of 3-7 teams in Madrid?
Fan lack of confidence also extends to expectations for tomorrow’s game against the Miami Dolphins, who, like the Commanders, enter this week’s game with a 3-7 record.
More than 7 out of every 10 respondents in our survey picked the Dolphins to win the Madrid game.
This is not surprising despite the two teams having identical overall records. The Dolphins dug an early hole for themselves by losing their first three games to pretty good teams — Philadelphia, New England and Buffalo. They picked up their first win of the season against the Jets in Week 4 before going on another 3-game losing streak.
But Miami’s fortunes have changed somewhat in recent weeks. The Dolphins have won two of their last three games, including a 30-13 thrashing of the Bills last Sunday. With their next three games coming against the struggling Commanders, Saints and Jets, Miami fans have visions of a 6-7 record by the time their favorite team enters the final quarter of the season.
Oddsmakers seem to agree about Sunday’s international contest between Washington and Miami; FanDuel currently has the Dolphins favored by 2.5 points with the over-under set at 47.5 points. On the prediction website Talleysite, with 251 ‘expert’ opinions logged, 83% are projecting a Dolphins win.
Winning would require a complete defensive turnaround by Washington
The only real hope for the Commanders is to suddenly change their play on the field — especially on defense.
Special teams
Washington’s special teams play this season has ranged from good to outstanding.
Quarterback play
Moreover, while many point to the absence of starting QB Jayden Daniels as a critical factor, Marcus Mariota has played competently or better when he has taken the field this season — even in last week’s ugly home loss to the Lions.
With all the negativity surrounding this game, people might have overlooked the very good performance by QB Marcus Mariota. The veteran backup completed 16/22 passes (72.7%, ADOT 13.8 yds) for 213 yds and 2 TDs, while avoiding turnovers. He did take 2 sacks for 18 yds. According to PFF, Mariota was only pressured on 26.9% of dropbacks, for which he can thank great blocking by his offensive line. Also, he got rid of the ball in an average of 2.69 sec.
On the ground, he gained 22 yds on 5 rushing attempts (4.4 Y/A).
Mariota’s performance earned an 82.8 Total QBR, 4th highest in the league in Week 10, and the best mark by a Washington QB this season.
Defense & Joe Whitt
It is Washington’s defense that must rise to the occasion. Opponents have scored 34 points or more in 4 of the past 7 games. Overall for the ‘25 season, the Commanders rank 29th in points allowed & 30th in yards allowed.
After a one-week experiment against the Lions in which defensive coordinator Joe Whitt moved from the booth to the sidelines, only to watch his defense give up a score (or final kneeldown) on every one of Detroit’s offensive drives of the game, Dan Quinn announced this week that he has taken over the duties of defensive coordinator ahead of the Madrid game.
It’s hard to imagine what DQ can accomplish in the 5 days or so he has had with the team in Madrid — especially given the depth and breadth of the injuries (and suspension) to Washington’s defensive personnel — but there’s really nothing left for him to do that doesn’t involve running a white flag up the pole to surrender the season.
In any event, it seems inconceivable that Joe Whitt, who received a 92% disapproval rating from Hogs Haven readers last week, can survive in his current role into 2026. He arrived in Washington last season as a first-time defensive coordinator after a long career as an NFL coach, but his season-and-a-half as Commanders DC has been bad overall, and disastrous in 2025. While Quinn may not see any benefit to an in-season firing of Whitt, it seems inevitable that finding a replacement for Quinn’s long-time subordinate will need to be among the highest priorities of the coming offseason, whether or not the defense responds to the recalibration in leadership signaled by the head coach this week.
Sunday kickoff & Week 12 bye
Kickoff will be early this week — 9:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time — so set your alarm if you want to tune in for the Week 11 installment of the Commanders season.
Both teams have a bye next week.
Whether you perceive that as a relief or a disappointment, your next chance to see the Commanders play won’t come until December 1st, at home against the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football. That should be fun too.