Thursday night was nothing if not expected.
The Patriots entered as 13.5-point favorites against the Jets.
They won by 13.
Drake Maye entered as an MVP favorite.
He heard “M-V-P” chants throughout the night, while slinging more than two dozen completions in another sparkling performance.
The Patriots’ defense also played to its reputation, allowing yet another opening-drive touchdown before holding the Jets to one score for the rest of the game.
Now, sure. The Jets are not to be confused with any type of juggernaut, measuring-stick opponent or anything other than a division doormat.
But the thing about midseason football is teams are either reinforcing good habits or letting them slip. Playing clean football — as the Pats did Thursday with zero turnovers, two penalties and high passing efficiency — matters because clean football will be required if they want to win come January. The more often the Patriots play well now, the more likely it is they will be at their best when their best is required in the playoffs.
And Thursday night, even in a boring game against a bad opponent with a predictable script under dreary conditions, represented another step in that direction. And nothing right now, aside from winning, is more important to the Patriots than solidifying the habits that will help them win later on.
Here’s what else the film revealed about the Pats’ latest win:
Drake Maye
Foxboro, MA - Nov. 13 - New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks for the pass as New York Jets linebacker Quincy Williams (56) moves in during the second half at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald).
Foxboro, MA - Nov. 13 - New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks for the pass as New York Jets linebacker Quincy Williams (56) moves in during the second half at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald).
25-of-34 for 281 yards, TD
Accurate throw percentage: 81.3%
Under pressure: 9-of-12 for 118 yards, TD, sack
Against the blitz: 6-of-9 for 82 yards
Behind the line: N/A
0-9 yards downfield: 16-of-18 for 117 yards
10-19 yards downfield: 8-of-8 for 143 yards, TD
20+ yards downfield: 1-of-6 for 21 yards
Notes: No screens. A below-average play-action rate. Just two scrambles.
Thursday night showed Maye shouldering the offense as a pure passer as much as any game this season. He routinely took what was available to him based on the coverage, and relentlessly attacked weak defenders whenever the Jets played man-to-man. Even well-covered receivers were open the way Maye put the ball ahead of his targets against man and on the right shoulder to get them to settle versus zone.
Maye was not fooled pre-snap, either, picking the Jets apart underneath on three- and five-step drops. He did struggle to connect with receivers deep, though not all incompletions were his fault.
Patriots teammates, crowd back Drake Maye’s MVP case in win over Jets
One of Maye's best throws was a long third-down pass against quarters coverage that Mack Hollins would have secured for a 40-yard gain in the second half were it not for Jets corner Brandon Stephens punching the ball free. Stefon Diggs also had a deep drop. Maye did risk a turnover on a long throw just before the half, but that was the only time in 37 dropbacks. Thursday's deep passing was more exception than the rule with Maye.
Otherwise, he was close to exceptional. Maye was downright immune to pressure and protected the ball in tight pockets, keeping two hands on it while shuffling up and extending plays. He displayed a Mahomesian knack for creating plays and directing traffic while on the move, sometimes to escape pressure and other times to bait defenders into chasing him so he could widen throwing lanes behind them.
There is a calm, creativity and command to his game that has sustained week to week. No wonder he's in the running for MVP.
Critical areas
Turnovers: Patriots 0, Jets 1
Explosive play rate: Patriots 9.6%, Jets 1.7%
Success rate: Patriots 46%, Jets 47%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 3-5, Jets 1-2
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 39%, Jets 35%
Offense
Foxboro, MA - Nov. 13 -New England Patriots celebrate running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) touchdown against the New York Jets during the second half at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald).
Foxboro, MA - Nov. 13 -New England Patriots celebrate running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) touchdown against the New York Jets during the second half at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald).
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 63% of snaps in 11 personnel, 14.5% of snaps in 21 personnel, 13% of snaps in 22 personnel, 6.5% of snaps in 10 personnel, 3% of snaps in jumbo personnel.***
Personnel production: 46% success rate in 11 personnel, 44% success rate in 21 personnel, 37.5% success rate in 22 personnel, 75% success rate in 10 personnel, 50% success rate in jumbo personnel.
First-down down play-calls: 62% run (39% success rate), 38% pass (64% success rate)
Play-action rate: 21.6%
Solid job by Josh McDaniels on a short week.
The Pats neutralized one of the few Jets defenders who could give them real trouble, edge rusher Will McDonald, by chipping him and using other forms of extra help to give Maye sufficient time. McDaniels too often left Hunter Henry 1-on-1 in pass protection (see: Maye's lone sack), but nonetheless limited New York's pressure despite working without his best pass-protecting running back (Rhamondre Stevenson) and No. 2 tight end (Austin Hooper).
Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson becoming major weapon with another multi-TD game
To offset Hooper's loss as a receiver and run-blocker, the Pats played a few snaps with left guard Ben Brown as a jumbo tight end and ran their first plays with four wideouts on the field all season. McDaniels ensured Brown wasn't a tell diversifying his play-calling when he was in the game: rushing toward and away from Brown on runs and sprinkling in a play-action pass. The four-receiver grouping had a high success rate because it stressed the Jets' shallow cornerback depth and allowed Maye to work from spread formations where he could clearly see coverage and exploit the right matchups.
On the ground, the Pats again struggled to create a consistent run game, but they scored their first two touchdowns on power runs with pulling guards. TreVeyon Henderson ran away from the pulling guard on his first score — a twist known as "bash" for back away — and then followed right guard Mike Onwenu to the end zone in a nice example of complementary play-calling. McDaniels must find new ways to open rushing lanes, but at least saved a few schemed plays on key downs, such as DeMario Douglas' fake-screen-turned-out-route that converted on an early fourth down.
Player stats
Foxboro, MA - Nov. 13 - New England Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs (8) protects the ball as he runs for extra yardage against the New York Jets during the second half at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald).
Foxboro, MA - Nov. 13 - New England Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs (8) protects the ball as he runs for extra yardage against the New York Jets during the second half at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald).
Broken tackles: RB TreVeyon Henderson 4
Pressure allowed: Team 4 (QB hit, 3 hurries), TE Hunter Henry 2 (sack, hurry), C Garrett Bradbury 2 (2 QB hits), RG Mike Onwenu (hurry), LT Will Campbell (hurry), QB Drake Maye (hurry)
Run stuffs allowed: Team 3, Campbell
Drops: WR Stefon Diggs 2
Notes
TreVeyon Henderson stole headlines with his three touchdowns, but his best moments were bruising. He flashed power and physicality on his second touchdown and some fourth-quarter runs to close the game, the type of plays that will round him out as a rusher.
Henderson also stood tall in six pass-blocking snaps, including multiple plays where the Jets targeted him in blitz pickup and successfully isolated him against a blitzer up the middle. Progress.
The Patriots' offensive line pushing Henderson across for his first touchdown was the highlight of the night, a show of determination and force in a critical area. Ideally, the Pats would raise their rushing success rate — which remains among the lowest in the league — but if they offset that inconsistency with explosive plays and high-level performance in short-yardage, they'll be fine.
Stefon Diggs topped 100 yards on nine catches, and did virtually all of his damage against zone coverage. He finished with one catch versus man-to-man.
Diggs' connection with Maye has elevated this offense to heights unforeseen before the year, a connection that speaks to their respective football IQs and seeing defenses the same way pre-snap.
DeMario Douglas, on the other hand, burned man-to-man on all three of his catches. The young slot receiver played just 19 snaps, but has demonstrated appreciable improvement compared to earlier in the season. He deserves the designed touches he continues to receive, even if his lone hand-off Thursday went for a five-yard loss.
Mack Hollins is quietly climbing up the Patriots' list of most valuable offensive players. He's an explosive downfield target who uncovers well on extended plays. Hollins deliberately ran into Maye's line of sight to give the quarterback an outlet under pressure. That type of veteran feel and adjustment can sustain drives and swing games.
On the other hand, third-round rookie Kyle Williams has done little to inspire confidence outside his long touchdown at Tampa Bay. The Patriots might opt to involve him more in their screen game to get him going.
Rookie left guard Jared Wilson posted a clean sheet in pass protection during his best game of the season.
Fellow rookie Will Campbell lost against a long arm move on his only allowed pressure, but otherwise held firm in pass protection and had a so-so run-blocking performance.
Down game for veteran center Garrett Bradbury, who otherwise has a claim to being the Patriots' best offensive lineman this season.
Defense
Foxboro, MA - Nov. 13 - New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel celebrates during the first half at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald).
Foxboro, MA - Nov. 13 - New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel celebrates during the first half at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald).
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 46% three-corner nickel package, 35% base defense, 19% dime.****
Coverage breakdown: 56% zone, 44% man
Blitz rate: 15.8%
Blitz efficacy: 33.3% offensive success rate, 4 yards per play and 1 TD allowed
Jets quarterback Justin Fields has struggled as a passer all season, so it makes sense that the Patriots loaded the box and dared him to pass the ball. It was a sound strategy. Fields was just 15-of-26 for 116 passing yards with one touchdown. It was just the fourth time all season he attempted more than 22 passes in a game.
Fields had his usual accuracy issues, and new Jets wide receiver Adonai Mitchell didn't do him any favors with three drops.
There were some issues with the Patriots marrying their pass rush and pass coverage in zone, especially with Fields' athleticism. The pass rush wouldn't get home, Patriots defenders would have to start plastering Jets receivers, and Fields would find an outlet to run. Overall, he had three scrambles for 26 yards vs. zone and one scramble for 14 yards against man.
Fields' lone passing touchdown came against a blitz, when the Patriots sent two safeties, Jaylinn Hawkins and Dell Pettus. Both players could have been more aggressive going after Fields, but Hawkins was sent with depth. Safety Craig Woodson slipped covering Jets wide recevier John Metchie, who scored easily. Woodson slipped in coverage again late in the game, allowing an 18-yard reception to Metchie late in the game.
Linebacker Jack Gibbens primarily played on early downs in a rotation with Jahlani Tavai, whose snaps were more balanced between early and late downs.
Player stats
Foxboro, MA - Nov. 13 - New England Patriots linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson (44) celebrates efensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) sack on New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields during the second half at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald).
Foxboro, MA - Nov. 13 - New England Patriots linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson (44) celebrates efensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) sack on New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields during the second half at Gillette Stadium. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald).
Pressure: DT Christian Barmore 4 (sack, 3 hurries), OLB K'Lavon Chaisson 3 (3 hurries), DT Cory Durden 3 (3 hurries), OLB Elijah Ponder 2 (sack, hurry), DT Khyiris Tonga 2 (2 hurries)
Run-stuffs: LB Jack Gibbens
Pass deflections: S Dell Pettus, Chaisson, Spillane
Missed tackles: Barmore, Gibbens, Ponder
Notes
Most of the Patriots' pressures came late in the game. Barmore started to take over late, and he recorded his first sack of the season, rushing past Jets guard John Simpson to bring down Fields.
Ponder, an undrafted rookie, recorded his second sack in as many games. He faced off against Jets left tackle Olu Fashanu, disengaged and then looped around to bring Fields down for a 2-yard loss. There was some frustration amongst the fanbase that the Patriots didn't acquire an edge defender at the trade deadline. Ponder might not wind up being as good as a veteran option that could have been acquired for a late-round pick. But if the Patriots did trade for an edge defender, and he had two sacks in two games, you'd feel pretty good about him. Ponder has taken advantage of his increased opportunities since Keion White was traded, though he did fail to bring down Fields before the first-down marker when it appeared that he and Gonzalez had him stopped behind the line of scrimmage. Fields was able to shimmy by both players to pick up the first down.
Milton Williams left the game early, returned but ultimately was ruled out in the second half. Head coach Mike Vrabel said Williams possibly could have returned under different circumstances.
The Patriots missed Williams as a pass rusher and in run defense. His injury led to a lot more playing time for Durden. Gregory also made his NFL debut. Durden isn't as athletic or powerful as Williams and got pushed off the line of scrimmage on two 5-plus yard pickups. Gregory made a run stuff on one of his first plays of the game.
Tonga was able to generate some pressure in the passing game but wound up on the ground multiple times, which is a no-no for a nose tackle, even when taking on double teams. Tonga was also able to bat a pass at the line of scrimmage and contributed on offense as a fullback on one play.
Overall, the Patriots struggled to set the edge against Fields and weren't as stout at the line of scrimmage on runs up the middle. The Patriots have been great at swarming to the ball against the run this season. That wasn't on display Thursday night.
Landry, a veteran player, looks like he could benefit from some rest before next Sunday's game.
On paper, Gonzalez had another shutdown performance against the Jets, allowing just two catches -- both in zone -- on six targets for 13 yards with a pass breakup. Numbers can lie, however.
Gonzalez's pass breakup against wide receiver Adonai Mitchell late in the game was great, but Mitchell actually beat him on multiple targets but either couldn't corral the ball or was the recipient of a bad throw by Fields. It wasn't a bad showing for Gonzalez, but it also wasn't as strong as the numbers would indicate.
Linebacker Marte Mapu was on the field for one play early in the first quarter, when he was tasked with spying Fields, who ran for a 14-yard gain. He appeared to lose his third-down linebacker role to Pettus, who took full advantage of his opportunities.
Pettus stopped Jets tight end Mason Taylor short of the first-down line on a third-and-9 pass early in the second quarter. He made what teammates called the game-winning play late in the fourth quarter when he broke up a pass intended for tight end Jeremy Ruckert on fourth-and-4.
Pettus has previously made impressive plays in coverage against Raiders tight end Brock Bowers and Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts. It's time to reward him with more playing time.
Spillane had another very solid performance in the middle of the Patriots' defense, making stops in the run game and passing game. He was particularly strong in pass coverage, forcing an incompletion late while covering Jets running back Isaiah Davis.
*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.
**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it produces positive EPA (Expected Points Added).
***10 personnel = one running back, no tight ends; 11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 21 personnel = two backs, one tight end; 22 = two backs, two tight ends; jumbo personnel = six offensive linemen.
****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six, dollar = seven