Third downs are obviously a crucial element of successful offenses. On the flipside, three-and-out drives can spoil a team’s plan to victory. On all third downs, the Pittsburgh Steelers rank 26th in conversion rate at 36 percent. It is no doubt a problem that needs a remedy. Today, I wanted to zoom in on three-and-out drives, which have occurred far too often.
The first visual I want to share is play counts on three-and-outs, giving us a sense of the frequency that offenses have been in the undesirable situation.
Right away, we see that Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 29th in three-and-outs with 150, fourth most through Week 10 (lower totals are best). For context, the 2024 Steelers offense ranked 20th in a similar study I did last season through Week 14, so things have been even worse in 2025 thus far.
This year, the least number of three-and-outs has been the LA Rams (59), and the Denver Broncos have the most (166). Pittsburgh is flirting with the latter, which a big reason we see the offense flutter as often as it does. Improving upon this the rest of 2025 is paramount if the Steelers want to reach their potential.
Now let’s look at successful play results. Here’s a visual of success rates on first and second down, leading up to teams three-and-out failures:
First down has been clearly below average, as you probably expect from a team that’s in the situation often like the Steelers offense. Their 24.3 percent first down success rate ranks 21st, and starting drives with more success should be a primary focus.
Pittsburgh has a 26.5 percent success rate on second downs, ranking 11th. So, they are doing an above average job at getting back into more manageable third downs, even on three-and-out drives.
Despite this, third downs are clearly a monkey that the Steelers need to get off their back. Going three-and-out is a main factor in other issues, like having the fewest snaps on offense in the league, negatively impacting both sides of the ball.
For example, Green Bay is the NFL’s best offense in total third down conversion rate in 2025. They’re on the extreme upper right of the last chart, “breaking” the visual with unparalleled first and second down success, even on three-and-out drives. The Packers won this battle against Pittsburgh in Week 8, when the Steelers went 1-of-10 on third down as an offense in the loss.
Looking at the Steelers next challenge, the Cincinnati Bengals are one of only six teams to land above the mean in both first and second down success rates on three-and-out drives. While those drives stalled, that general success on early downs aides their 12th ranked 40.4 percent conversion rate on all third downs.
While the Bengals have had their issues, they’ve been much better at sustaining drives than the Steelers this season. Set to face off for the second time in 2025, Pittsburgh won the overall third down battle in Week 7, but still lost namely with defensive struggles.
Here’s to hoping the Steelers can win the third down battle on offense once again, and trend more positively than their poor overall third down results this year. What better time to start than avoiding three-and-outs against one of the weaker defenses in the league? The Bengals rank 31st in total third down conversions allowed.
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