This is a big one.
The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Denver Broncos tomorrow/today, and there is no other way to put it — it is the biggest, most important game of the Chiefs’ season so far. That’s saying something, considering the Chiefs have already played in a Super Bowl rematch, an AFC Championship rematch, an international game, and four prime-time games already.
What makes this particular matchup so important, so vital, is what is at stake: the AFC West division title.
That might sound like a crazy thing to say at this stage of the season. It’s only Week 11, after all. But it isn’t hyperbole. It’s the scenario the Chiefs face, according to Aaron Schatz, an NFL analyst and the creator of DVOA.
The Chiefs face a season-defining showdown in Denver with their AFC West hopes, and maybe their playoff future, hanging in the balance.
According to Schatz’s simulations, if Kansas City loses to Denver today/tomorrow, its chances of winning the AFC West are almost gone. The Chiefs would have just a nine percent chance of winning the division, while Denver’s chance would skyrocket to a whopping 82 percent.
If KC beats DEN in Week 11
KC 51%, DEN 37%, LAC 11%
If DEN beats KC in Week 11
DEN 82%, KC 9%, LAC 9% https://t.co/7A9CJ7HD8E
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) November 7, 2025
On top of that, a loss would surely extinguish any slim chance Kansas City still has of claiming the AFC’s one seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. As it stands prior to the game, there is a six percent chance of the Chiefs earning the first-round bye, according to ESPN. But a loss would drop KC to 5-5, four wins behind conference leaders New England. It would simply be too much ground to make up.
Even more alarmingly, a defeat would mean the Chiefs face the very real possibility of missing the playoffs altogether. At best, they’d remain the eight seed. At worst, they’d drop behind the Houston Texans into ninth and be tied on wins with the now healthy and potentially dangerous Baltimore Ravens.
With games against Indianapolis, the Chargers, and Denver again still to come, KC would have zero margin for error. A loss doesn’t mean the season is over for Kansas City, but it puts them in a tough spot.
However, there is a flip side.
If the Chiefs were to win, Schatz’s simulations predict they would have a 52 percent chance of winning the AFC West for a record-extending 10th straight time.
Remarkably, the Chiefs currently have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl, according to analytics and bookmakers, despite not even being in the AFC playoff picture at present. The losses have slowly been building up, but there has been a feeling of “she’ll be right, mate,” about the Chiefs, the idea that things will find a way of sorting themselves out for the better.
A win would change things from “she’ll be right” to “things are alright.” Beating Denver would finally see the idea of how good we know the Chiefs could be begin to align with how well they are actually playing.
A loss could be disastrous. A win could finally be the big step forward the Chiefs need on their push for the Super Bowl.
Like I said, this is a big one.