I once read somewhere that 42% of an NFL team’s regular-season record can be accounted for by randomness, or sample error to be clear.
Imagine flipping a coin 10 times. It usually doesn’t land on heads and tails five times each. In fact, it only happens 24% of the time (I’ll spare you the math). But if you flipped the coin an infinite number of times, the rate would be closer to a 50-50 split.
A small sample size usually produces a large sample error.
An NFL team only plays 17 games in the regular season, most likely because the NFL Players Association rejected the owners’ proposal of an infinite schedule, where the NFL plays every day of every week until the end of time.
The owners just absolutely refuse to budge on guaranteed contracts.
So as fantasy enthusiasts, we have to roll with the random punches, and the easiest way to do that is to have a process that governs your decisions on a weekly basis.
Last week’s lineup was bitten by the randomness bug, hard.
I paid up at quarterback in a search for ceiling, but Lamar Jackson regressed against the blitz, and only did enough to beat the Vikings. His 2x return-on-investment was half what we needed.
Both Rico Dowdle and Amon-Ra St. Brown were in smash spots, but followed Jackson’s lead.
The most random aspect of Week 10 though, had to be the Dolphins destroying the Bills 30-13. After the game, Josh Allen was quick to point out his own mistakes, taking full responsibility for the loss. That’s what a franchise QB is supposed to do.
I’m taking a play out of the reigning MVP’s playbook this week. Last week wasn’t good enough. So I’m staying true to my process.
I’m back to searching for upside, and no one has a higher ceiling than Allen, especially after being embarrassed the week before.
#### The preamble
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.
On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.
Here is my optimal lineup for today’s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.
The optimal lineup has netted $120 this season, so I’m in the red $65 with an average score of 136.03 points through 10 weeks.
#### Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 95.52
Week 2: 124.90
Week 3: 181.44
Week 4: 142.88
Week 5: 162.24
Week 6: 117.24
Week 7: 116.46
Week 8: 158.26
Week 9: 146.94
Week 10: 114.44
#### Week 11 lineup
**QB: Josh Allen, Bills ($7,000)**
Allen took responsibility for the loss last week, but he was fine in fantasy. He earned 24.34 DraftKings points by throwing for 306 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins loss was a classic letdown game after beating the Chiefs in Week 9. This week’s matchup against a good Buccaneers team is close to a must-win, considering how well the Patriots are playing these days. I’m anticipating a big bounce-back performance by Allen and the Bills at home.
**RB: Josh Jacobs, Packers ($7,800)**
Green Bay’s offense has looked terrible the last two games, and a matchup against the Giants is exactly what the doctor ordered. Here’s a chance for the Packers to reestablish their identity of a run-oriented team with a stellar defense. The G-Men are allowing an NFL-worst 5.7 yards per carry. Jacobs comes into this game off the injury report for the first time since Week 6, and he has at least one rushing TD in eight of nine games this season.
**RB: Chase Brown, Bengals ($5,700)**
With Samaje Perine out (ankle) this week, Brown will likely return to last year’s role as a near every-down back, where he produced four games with at least 23 DK points.
**WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks ($8,900)**
Smith-Njigba has the eighth most receiving yards (1,041) in NFL history through nine games, while ranking 74th in the NFL in routes per game. What if the Rams push the game environment at home, and force Seattle to play catch-up? Also, the Rams’ secondary is a weak link on an otherwise dominant defense. Get your popcorn ready.
**WR: Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($7,500)**
I’m I’m playing Jefferson and JSN, that means I’m fading Ja’Marr Chase and Puke Nacua this week. All four will likely have good games, but I just prefer Jefferson’s and JSN’s upside this week. [Especially after Bears safety Jaquan Brisker claimed his trash talk made Jefferson cry a couple of weeks ago.](https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2025/10/31/bears-s-jaquan-brisker-says-trash-talk-made-justin-jefferson-cry-looks-to-get-in-jamarr-chases-head-next)
**WR: Joshua Palmer, Bills ($3,300)**
Palmer stacks with Allen while helping fit in some larger pieces in this lineup. After missing three straight games with knee and ankle issues, he returns to a pass offense that usually consolidates around Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman. Allen’s favorite target this season, Kincaid, is out with a hamstring injury this week.
**TE: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers ($3,200)**
Playing tight ends against the Bengals has been a cheat code all season. They’ve allowed 10 TD receptions (!) to the position in the last five games. Four of those scores were by three different Pittsburgh tight ends in Week 7, with Freiermuth contributing the lion’s share of the production with five receptions for 111 yards and two TDs.
**FLEX: Jonnu Smith, Steelers ($2,900)**
This is me daring Arthur Smith to funnel all the targets through Pittsburgh’s third tight end Darnell Washington. Otherwise, playing Smith and Freiermuth together will likely capture a got-to-have-it performance. They combined for 42.9 DK points in Week 7. They only need to combine for 24.4 this week to produce a 4x ROI.
**DST: Green Bay Packers ($3,600)**
Stacking Jacobs and the Packers’ defense almost makes too much sense this week against a team that can’t stop the run and Jameis Winston making his first start of the season with Jaxson Dart out (concussion).