Six months ago, Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles tendon and the Boston Celtics were eliminated from the playoffs. That triggered a series of events that led to the departures of beloved players like Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, Luke Kornet, and Kristaps Porzingis. It also led to a resetting of the Celtics cap sheet.
By now you know the story, but here’s a reminder of the numbers. By shedding salaries through trades and free agency, the Celtics went from a projected $20M over the 2nd apron to currently standing just $4M above the 1st apron. And as it stands, they’ve saved themselves something in the range of $238M in luxury tax payments.
Perhaps more importantly (at least to fans), by being under the 2nd apron, the team avoids some the harsher penalties under the new CBA. Teams over the 2nd apron have additional trade restrictions and repeat offenders can see their future draft picks frozen and/or moved to the end of the first round.
So now what?
We haven’t even made it 20 games into the season and the unofficial start of “trade season” doesn’t really start until December 15 (when most free agents signed in the offseason are eligible to be traded). But it is never too early to think about what’s coming next. Especially when it seems like the whole season is just one long reset for the future.
Brad Stevens hasn’t just saved the new owners a boatload of cash. He’s set the team up with the flexibility to make moves for the future. Even if Tatum had not been injured, the team was widely rumored to have made some cost cutting moves this past summer. They didn’t want to be locked into a roster with aging support players with increasing penalties from a CBA designed to tear down teams just like this. Instead, the team has options and assets.
As we approach trade season, let’s review some assets that the team holds.
Draft Picks:
2026 - Celtics own their own pick.
2027 - Celtics own their own pick.
2028 - The San Antonio Spurs have the right to swap 1st round picks with the Celtics in the 2028 draft (as part of the Derrick White trade).
2029 - The Celtics also owe a 2029 first round pick to the Portland Trail Blazers as part of the deal that brought Jrue Holiday to Boston.
2030 - Celtics own their own pick.
2031 - Celtics own their own pick.
2032 - This pick is frozen at the moment so it cannot be traded for at least the next three years. To un-freeze it the Celtics will need to stay under the second apron in at least three of the next four seasons.
Trade Exceptions:
$4 million exception expiring in February 2026 (from the Jaden Springer trade)
$8.2 million exception expiring in August 2026 (from the Georges Niang trade)
$22.5 million exception expiring in July 2026 (from the Kristaps Porzingis trade)
And of course there’s every player on the current roster, including Anfernee Simons and his $27.7M expiring salary.
Different Paths Forward
The whole idea behind this reset is to prepare the team to be better in the future (both near and long term). There are an infinite number of possible paths forward, but I think it is reasonable to rule out a few. With Jayson Tatum expected to recover fully (or as much as one could expect), I don’t see the team tearing things completely down to the studs. With Jaylen Brown playing so well, I tend to believe that he’ll be part of the plan going forward as well (at least for now). Other than that, the crystal ball gets a lot more foggy.
One possible path is a more concerted effort to tank the current year. Injuries to any of the starters could create a natural soft tank scenario, but if everyone is healthy the team might be too good for that plan. Would the team consider trading Derrick White for a haul of future assets that they could use to build a long term roster around Jayson and Jaylen?
On the other end of the spectrum would be an all-in move for this year. The team could move Simons and/or use their trade exceptions to add established talent on deals that last beyond this season. Conceivably they could do so without exceeding the 2nd apron. They would still be over the 1st apron and subject to increasing repeater tax penalties, but under the right circumstances it could very well be worth it.
Perhaps the more realistic path is somewhere in between, where the team makes minimal moves this season and reevaluates where it stands in the summer (theoretically having seen the progress Jayson Tatum makes on the court). Many expect the team to make some kind of cost cutting move to dip under the 1st apron, if only because they are so close they might as well.
Sometimes the best path is to be flexible enough to pursue the best options that present themselves to you over time. Who knows what player might become available in the coming months that might not have seemed reasonable a few months ago? Who knows how league trends will shift over the next several months? The Celtics seem to be stuck in the middle ground between tanking and competing, which traditionally is not a great place to be for the long term. However, in a gap year or soft reset (or whatever you want to call it), it might just be where this team needs to be to hit the ground running next year.