After opening the season by losing just one of their first seven games, the Green Bay Packers have dropped back-to-back games and have fallen to third place in the NFC North. The offense especially looks broken, scoring a total of 20 points combined in their last two games.
They visit the New York Giants on Sunday. This will be the Giants’ first game under interim head coach Mike Kafka after the team fired Brian Daboll earlier in the week. The Giants will be without Jaxson Dart, and Jameis Winston will get his first start of the season.
Put all of this in the wash, and you get Green Bay laying over a touchdown on the road at MetLife Stadium. Will the Giants serve as a tonic for an ailing Packers team? Or will the Giants get at least a temporary boost from a new coach and quarterback?
Packers vs. Giants predictions and best bets
New York Giants +7.5 (-120 odds at FanDuel)
Jameis Winston over 224.5 passing yards (-115 odds at BetMGM)
Christian Watson longest reception over 21.5 yards (-110 odds at DraftKings)
The interim bump is certainly a thing in professional sports. Players realize that ownership and management are watching, players realize that their jobs are on the line with new decision makers coming in soon, and human nature makes you feel bad about costing your former coach his job.
There is even more at play here that makes me like the Giants to cover this spread. First off, at FanDuel, you can get the Giants at +7.5, which is a huge half point compared to the rest of the market. The extra 10 cents juice on the line is worth the hook on the key number of seven.
Also, Jameis Winston has a wide range of outcomes, but he certainly brings a higher ceiling (and much lower floor) and more energy to the offense. He will not be intimidated or scared and he will continue to throw the ball up for grabs and give his offense a chance. Combining the interim bump and the Jameis bump could be powerful.
The Packers recently lost to the Panthers, and their offense is broken. They are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games.
One part of the offense that has been consistent is Christian Watson’s ability to make big plays. In three games since returning, he has four catches for over 25 yards. He’s accomplished the feat in all three games. This Giants defense gives up an average of three 20+ yard receptions per game, and we like Watson to get at least one of those.
Packers vs. Giants moneyline odds analysis
How Green Bay wins as the favorite
Best odds: -350 at BetMGM Sportsbook
We are not that far removed from the Green Bay Packers being among the Super Bowl favorites. Just a few weeks ago, they were the toast of the town.
You have to expect Matt LaFleur to figure this offense out. He has a track record and history of coaching some efficient offenses, so he deserves the benefit of the doubt.
This is a Giants team without Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton and Cam Skattebo. That’s their starting quarterback, top two receivers and top running back. The talent disparity between the teams is rather large.
How New York wins as the underdog
Best odds: +300 at DraftKings Sportsbook
You have to think the Giants will come out motivated to play after they fired their head coach this past week. The Giants are a pesky group, but somehow find ways to lose games. They are 0-4 this season in games where they had a double-digit lead. That’s incredible.
Jameis Winston is a roller coaster at quarterback, and sometimes roller coasters provide unexpected thrills.
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