The NFL Week 11 slate provides us with an AFC North matchup between the Baltimore Ravens (4-5) and Cleveland Browns (2-7).
Entering this game, Baltimore is a 7.5-point road favorite over the Browns, while the over/under sits at a modest 39.5 point total.
Can the Browns show some semblance of life on their home field against a division rival, or will the Ravens keep rolling after shaking off a slow start to their season?
Keep reading below, where we have our Ravens vs. Browns predictions, picks, and best bets, to find out.
Ravens vs. Browns Predictions and best bets
Under 39.5 points:-110 at Caesars
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns:+100 at BetMGM
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Under 39.5 points
The Browns defense is a completely different unit at home than it is on the road, with opponents scoring 20 fewer points per game in Cleveland.
In fact, the Browns rank first in opponent points and yards per game at Huntington Bank Field, holding them to roughly 11 points and 197 total yards each outing.
Further, they are first in opponent rushing yards per game and opponent yards per carry when playing in front of their own fans.
The Ravens are still a run-heavy team, as evidenced by their 34 rushing attempts per game over their past three outings.
If Cleveland can limit their impact on the ground, Baltimore could struggle to score consistently.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns continue to be hindered by a lack of talent at the skill positions, overall inexperience, and horrendous offensive line play.
Cleveland has by far the lowest pass blocking grade (PFF) in the NFL.
While the Ravens’ defense has not been anywhere near as impressive as expected coming into this season, it has stepped up over the past three games, allowing the third-lowest points per game of any team in that stretch.
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will have to lean on the pass game if they want any chance of beating the Browns in Cleveland.
On their home field, the Browns have been utterly elite at defending the run, allowing opponents to pick up merely 3.0 yards per carry so far this season.
Luckily, Jackson has had some success with his arm in the Ravens’ past two games, tossing five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Further, Jackson threw four touchdowns when these two teams played earlier in the season.
It won’t be a high-scoring game, but Jackson has been playing well since returning from injury and the Browns have little to play for at this point in the season.
Ravens vs. Browns moneyline odds analysis
Why Ravens could win as the favorite
Best odds:-400 at BetMGM
The Ravens are simply the better overall team.
After missing nearly all of October, Baltimore has Lamar Jackson back in the swing of things, which has resulted in the Ravens posting 27 or more points in three consecutive games.
Additionally, Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest points per game to opponents in its past three outings, a positive sign as it continues to fight to get back into the playoff picture.
Why Browns could win as the underdog
Best odds:+350 at FanDuel
Despite losing by 24 points to Baltimore earlier in the season, the Browns present a potentially problematic matchup for the Ravens.
Cleveland has the highest-graded overall defense, run defense, and pass rush in the NFL; the Browns also rank first in opponent points per game, total yards per game, rushing yards per game, and yards per rush attempt at home.
While offensive line play and the pass game continue to haunt the Browns on the offensive side of the ball, they have been able to put up 20 points in two of their past three games with Dillon Gabriel under center.
That might be all it will take if the Browns defense continues to play like it has this season at home.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.