Sunday’s NFC West showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams is a true heavyweight battle.
One area the Seahawks could ‘exploit’ vs Rams
It features a pair of 7-2 teams that are tied for the NFC’s best record. It’s a collision of two top-five scoring offenses and two top-five scoring defenses. It’s a No. 1 vs. No. 2 clash in DVOA.
And of course, it’s an incredibly fascinating coaching matchup.
Rams head coach Sean McVay is widely regarded as the NFL’s premier offensive play-caller, while Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald has emerged as the league’s top defensive guru. Not to be outdone, Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and Los Angeles defensive coordinator Chris Shula have also drawn plenty of praise this year.
“Both of these coaching staffs are at the top of their games, and it’ll be interesting to see if anyone changes some of those tendencies to sort of disrupt them,” ESPN’s Mina Kimes said during an appearance Friday on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy.
Here are two potential chess matches within the game that Kimes highlighted.
Seattle’s defense vs. Rams’ ’13’ personnel
In recent weeks, McVay and the Rams have thrived with a heavy dose of “13” personnel – formations with one running back, three tight ends and one wide receiver.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Rams have used “13” personnel at least 38% of the time in each of their past three games – including a whopping 44.8% in last week’s win over the San Francisco 49ers, which was the second-highest rate by any team since 2016.
And during that three-game span, the Rams’ offense has hit another gear. Los Angeles has averaged 37.0 points per game over that stretch, while Matthew Stafford has averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt with 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions.
Essentially, the Rams’ three-tight-end sets have forced opposing defenses into using bigger personnel – or base defense – that’s more suited to stop the run. And then, through a mix of talent, versatility and McVay’s creativity, the Rams have exploited that bigger personnel through the air.
But here’s the kicker: The Seahawks have been so good at stopping the run that they haven’t needed to use their base defense against “13” personnel anywhere near as often as other teams.
According to CBS Sports, the Seahawks use nickel sets (five defensive backs) at a 58.3% rate against “13” personnel, which is by far the highest rate in the league. And yet, their run defense still ranks third in the NFL at just 3.7 yards allowed per carry.
“Typically, when a team puts multiple tight ends on the field and you respond by playing with lighter bodies, they’re able to run it on you,” Kimes said. “… But the problem for (the Rams) is Seattle is very unique in their ability to put quote-unquote lighter bodies on the field and stop the run.
“So it’s almost like this defense right now was built in a lab to handle what the Rams have been doing with that ’13’ personnel. And because of that, I wonder if maybe (the Rams) will actually go away from that.”
How will the Rams defend JSN?
On the other side of the ball, the Rams will be tasked with finding a way to slow down the scorching-hot Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Smith-Njigba has been virtually unstoppable, piling up a league-high 1,041 receiving yards through nine games – which puts him on pace to break the NFL’s single-season receiving record. Sam Darnold has been excellent as well, averaging a historically good 9.9 yards per pass attempt while directing the league’s most explosive aerial attack.
As a result, Kimes expects the Rams to devote extra resources toward Smith-Njigba and to essentially dare the Seahawks to run the ball.
Seattle’s rushing attack has struggled this season, ranking just 28th in the league at 3.8 yards per carry. But the Seahawks rushed for a season-high 198 yards in last week’s rout of the Arizona Cardinals, including an impressive 5.2-yard average by their running backs.
“I do not think there’s a corner right now who can handle Jaxon Smith-Njigba,” Kimes said. “I think (the Rams) know that, so I suspect we’re going to see a lot of bracket coverage on JSN. … I expect Chris Shula, their defensive coordinator, to basically beg Seattle to run the ball in this game.
“I think (the Seahawks) are gonna see a lot of light boxes, a lot of split-safety shells. And so whether or not that run game can be more efficient – and even potentially explosive like we saw last week – I think is going to be important.”
Listen to the full conversation with ESPN’s Mina Kimes at this link or in the video player at the top of this story. Tune into Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.
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