The Dallas Mavericks (4–10) head to Target Center on Monday night to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8–5), who have won six of their last ten games and boast one of the most balanced rosters in the Western Conference. Tipoff is set for 7:00 PM CT. Let’s scan the lines in search of value.
Dallas enters the game on the second night of a back-to-back after an exhausting 138–133 overtime win over Portland. That game saw seven Mavericks in double figures and strong finishes from Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, and Daniel Gafford. But the effort came at a cost — the team gave up 22 offensive rebounds and 32 second-chance points, and Gafford appeared to tweak his ankle late. It was a gritty win, but the team looked vulnerable underneath and emotionally spent by the end.
Dallas remains without several core contributors: Anthony Davis (calf), Kyrie Irving (knee), and Dante Exum (knee) are all out. That leaves the Mavericks reliant on a mix of youth and role players, with Cooper Flagg, PJ Washington, and Brandon Williams shouldering most of the usage load.
Minnesota, on the other hand, is at full strength. Julius Randle has found his rhythm, Anthony Edwards continues to produce at an All-Star level, and Rudy Gobert is anchoring the paint. With Jaden McDaniels chipping in as a blowout-proof scorer and multiple second-unit threats, the Timberwolves are one of the deeper teams Dallas has faced all year.
This is the first of four matchups between these teams this season.
Game Fixtures
November 17, 2025 — Dallas Mavericks (4–10) at Minnesota Timberwolves (8–5)
Tipoff: 7:00 PM CT — Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
How To Watch: KFAA-TV, Mavs.com
Odds via DraftKings as of 4:00 AM CST
Spread: Minnesota -14.5 (-105) / Dallas +14.5 (-115)
Total: 228.5 (O -118 / U -102)
Moneyline: MIN -950 / DAL +625
Game Sides
Minnesota -14.5
Over 228.5
The Timberwolves hold every structural advantage here. Dallas has struggled mightily against the West (1–7) and lacks the size or shot creation to match up with Minnesota’s physicality. Look for the Wolves to control the glass, generate easy looks in transition, and pull away early. The total leans slightly over with both teams playing faster-paced second units and Dallas often padding late in blowouts. According to Hollinger’s Pace Factor rankings, Dallas ranks 4th in the NBA (105.2), and Minnesota sits 11th (103.3) — both above league average. This tempo supports the over, even if the game trends toward a lopsided result.
Player Props
Rudy Gobert over 10.5 rebounds (-124)
Dallas technically has Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II available, with Moussa Cisse also showing flashes — but Gafford tweaked his ankle late against Portland, and Lively just fouled out in a flurry of awkward hustle as he works his way back into form after a long layoff. Gobert should see plenty of second-chance opportunities and has a clear path to 11+ boards against a Dallas front line still finding its rhythm.
Jaden McDaniels over 14.5 points (-110)
McDaniels has been averaging 17.7 PPG this season and brings value as a secondary scorer in a blowout-resistant role. With Dallas likely to focus its defensive energy on slowing Randle and Edwards, McDaniels could benefit from clean catch-and-shoot looks or backdoor opportunities within Minnesota’s offensive flow.
PJ Washington over 15.5 points (-125)
Washington remains the safest volume scorer on Dallas right now. He’s blowout-proof, three-point capable, and will be leaned on. He also just had a strong showing against Portland, going 5-of-7 from deep in a confident bounce-back effort that could carry into this tough road matchup.