It's easy to put the story together. The Los Angeles Lakers are 10-4, the second-most wins of any team in the Western Conference. They have faced a road-heavy schedule. And the greatest player of all time is about to return after missing the entire start to the season. So why is LeBron James going to ruin everything for the Lakers?
The answer doesn't come down to talent; few players in NBA history are as talented as LeBron James. He also was playing at a high level just last season despite his age; he was a deserving All-NBA selection, his 21st-straight. The problem is how this Lakers team is built, how they are finding success, and what LeBron has to offer as his 41st birthday approaches.
The Lakers have a formula they are riding through the early parts of the season: two on-ball pick-and-roll dynamos in Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, and a plethora of role players who have found their place filling in around those stars. Deandre Ayton has found some verve with real playmaking to set him up; Rui Hachimura can't miss from outside. Jake LaRavia has filled his role well.
That formula has brought the Lakers 10 wins in their first 14 games -- but it hasn't brought dominance. They have the fifth-best record in the NBA but merely the 15th-best net rating, which historically is a better indicator of a team's true performance. Their offense is just 15th-best in the league; their defense is likewise 15th-best in the league. The underlying metrics suggest they whould be more like an 8-6 team, just a hair about break-even.
LeBron James is soon to return
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On the one hand, that sounds great; the Lakers have banked some wins with LeBron sidelined, and now they are getting serious reinforcements. ESPN's Shams Charania and Dave McMenamin reported that [LeBron will be a full participant at Lakers practice on Monday](https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/1990102527178678347), and that his "debut is nearing."
The problem is that LeBron is not a cure for what ails the Lakers. His best skill has always been his on-ball dominance, and that's the one thing the Lakers have locked down. They are getting elite on-ball pick-and-roll play from Doncic -- probably the best in the league in that area -- and from Reaves, who is building a compelling All-Star case based on his on-ball mastery.
If LeBron James returns he will need the ball; that is the primary way that he brings value to a team. He has proven he can do that with another on-ball star, going back to his successes with Dwyane Wade and Kyrie Irving, but he was always the No. 1 option. He is an improved shooter but he's hardly a 3-and-D wing; his value to the team decreases if he isn't handling the ball. Whether it's LeBron playing off-ball or LeBron taking touches away from Doncic and Reaves, he will be hurting the offense.
Where the Lakers most desperately need help is on defense, and LeBron is not going to inject the team with energy and hustle at 40 years of age. His game on that end has eroded over the past few seasons, and coming off of a major sciatica injury and not being able to maintain basketball shape, he is almost certainly going to be an even further reduced defender than he has been.
The formula to maximizing a Luka-Doncic led team is similar to a prime LeBron-James led team: one other shot creator so teams can't consistently double LeBron/Luka, and then a plethora of defenders and shooters. The Lakers don't really have the personnel for that right now, and LeBron James taking 30 minutes away from those they do have could spell disaster.
LeBron James is likely still a really good NBA player. He is also a player whose game is tightening into specific strengths and weaknesses, and unfortunately for the Lakers, those strengths are largely duplicated by this team's other stars, and those weaknesses cannot be papered over by the rest of the roster. He has a brilliant basketball mind and could find a way to make this work; that path forward is not clear, however, by any means.
The return of LeBron James could ruin this team's hot start and see them plummeting back into the morass of the Western Conference middle class -- or worse.