If you had told me back in January that the Chicago Bears would be in sole possession of first place heading into Week 12 of this season, I would not have believed you. Add in the context of how they've played and won games this season, on top of an 0-2 start with both games being in the division, and the turnaround feels almost unbelievable. Yet, here we are.
It hasn't always been pretty, but the Bears have won seven of their last eight games. Some wanted to hit the panic button after the Ravens game, but Baltimore has not lost since, and the Bears have gone on to win every other game they've played. Granted, I'm not sure how sustainable their current path to victory has been, but fans should enjoy it while it lasts. Not only are the Bears sitting at 7-3 after 10 games, matching their total from the same point during the 2018 season, but this is a team with a clear path to a playoff spot.
Now, don't get me wrong. There's plenty to improve upon, and we'll dive into that in due time, but the fact that the Bears are 7-3 following their disastrous 0-2 start is quite the story that is being overlooked due to some of the other great stories around the NFL so far in 2025. Sure, they've played one of the easiest schedules in this league to date, and have the lowest strength-of-victory of all 32 teams, but a team can only play who is on their schedule. The best thing about their hot start is that they'll have six of the next seven games to prove that they belong in the playoffs.
What's ahead and playoff race for Chicago Bears
(Photo: USA TODAY Sports)
With a 3-4 finish, that will get them to 10 wins. Unlike previous seasons, 10 wins doesn't feel like a lock to make the playoffs in the NFC, but it should at the very least give them an opportunity based on tie-breakers. Speaking of tie-breakers, in many ways, the Bears can control their own destiny. When all is said and done, they will have played four of the top seven teams in the NFC, two of which are in their own division. For any team to be seriously considered for the playoffs, winning in the division is a must. Following their win in Minnesota, the Bears sit at 1-2 within the NFC North and still have three games remaining against the division's other two top teams. They'll face the Green Bay Packers twice in a three-game span, while wrapping up the season with the Detroit Lions. Two of their three remaining divisional games will be at Soldier Field, including what could be a pivotal Week 18 matchup in frigid temperatures against a quarterback who has historically struggled in such conditions. Winning two in the division should be a baseline requirement with a .500 record being a more attainable goal.
Projecting down the line, the Bears' final three games of the season could decide the season. At the very least, it could be the difference in potential playoff seeding. They'll host the Packers in Week 16, before a short road trip out west to face the 49ers, all before coming back home and wrapping up the regular season with a potential high-stakes matchup against the two-time division champion Lions. Going 2-1 in that stretch (assuming that Week 18 has meaning) will be one last key to a successful season in Chicago. If you're someone that feels a Wild Card spot is more realistic, their Week 17 matchup in San Francisco is about as "must-win" as it gets.
A head-to-head tie-breaker trumps all in any two-team scenario. On the other hand, if your focus is on the division, beating the Packers and Lions at home would get them to a minimum of .500 in the division, while giving them (1-1) records against both the Packers and Lions, meaning any tie-breaking scenario would come down to conference records. In the case of conference records, Green Bay heads into Week 12 with a (4-2-1) mark, while Detroit is batting .500 at 3-3. The Bears have played one more game within the conference, while also holding a slightly better record than either team. It's also worth noting that tie-breaking scenarios are unlikely to come into play with the Packers, thanks to their early-season tie against the Dallas Cowboys.
Rewinding to the present, the Bears still have two games remaining against AFC opponents, including Week 12 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Although it's unclear whether or not veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers will play, the two teams have historically been involved in plenty of one-score games in recent memory. The difference in play between Rodgers and Mason Rudolph is notable, but as we learned against the Ravens, playing a backup quarterback doesn't guarantee a win. Although the two remaining AFC games don't hold as much value, splitting those games is almost a must. The Steelers are a good team, and although the Browns are not, they have been playing their opponents tough for the majority of the season due to their top-level defense. In an ideal world, they win both games, but at that point, it would bring them to nine wins, and their margin for error becomes significantly larger. More realistically, the conversation would shift from "how" they can get into the playoffs to "where" they'll be in the seeding.
Week 13's matchup against the Eagles on Black Friday will be an actual measuring stick for where the Bears are currently. Philadelphia has done Chicago a favor by taking out the Packers and Lions in consecutive weeks. Although the Eagles' offense has struggled, their defense has been playing at an elite level. Of the seven games remaining in the regular season, the Eagles will brguably their toughest remaining matchup, at least on paper, at 8-2.
Are the Chicago Bears playing with house money?
(Photo: USA TODAY Sports)
Although it might feel like the deck is stacked against the Bears to finish out the season, it's important to remember that coming into the season, they were projected to have the second-toughest schedule among the 32 teams in the league. So far, that has translated into the most manageable schedule through 10 games (.345 opponent win percentage) and a .279 strength of victory. Each team in the division has seven games remaining, but Green Bay will see five divisional opponents during that stretch. The other three teams will see just three. Of the three teams with winning records in the NFC North, the Lions' schedule projects as the "easiest", but even at that, they'll face a combined winning percentage over .500. The Bears' and Packers' remaining opponents have a .592 winning percentage. Still, it's worth noting that just three of Green Bay's final seven games will be at home, compared to the Bears' four games at Soldier Field.
For some, this might be "pump the brakes" season. For others, it's a time to enjoy the moment simply. After all, this is a team that hasn't been in the playoff conversation in five seasons. Even then, the most optimistic of Bears fans had plenty of reservations about their viability against good teams. If the playoffs are genuinely in the team's future, they will have to earn it by beating at least two good teams, if not three. While it might feel like in the moment there is plenty to question, their season's work will not be called into question if they find themselves in the dance come January.
Do the Bears need to improve moving forward? Absolutely. Their current path to winning games is not sustainable, but good teams, especially the young ones, tend to find their footing as the season carries on. Veteran safety Kevin Byard said it best following Sunday's win, "You want to be able to play better and not continuously be in this situation." Byard later remarked that they are "battle-tested", which has been a significant change from last year, but the goal would be that not every win comes from the final seconds of the game. So far, Chicago has lacked the killer instinct to put teams away, which has made games much closer than they should be.
Head coach Ben Johnson has spent considerable time during his various media availabilities discussing the importance of taking the next step. They've established a winning culture and a belief within the locker room. Taking the next step will involve having enough pride not to feel "good enough" by simply winning close games. Shutting the door when the opportunity arises might be the difference between a "surprise" season and the "successful" one they've already had. The narrative has consistently been that this team will play its "best football" in December and January. With that marker quickly approaching, the time is now for the Bears to evolve into the team they believe they can be.
No matter what happens over the final seven games of the season, the Bears have done something many fans have long hoped for– Set themselves up to be in the race in December and beyond. Johnson's expectations have not changed since the day he stepped into Halas Hall. Despite their recent history of failure, this was a coaching staff that always believed they could "win now". So far, the Bears have proven themselves to be more than capable of doing so. Even if their point differential is still skewed at (-6) thanks to an ugly Week 2 blowout loss to the Lions, this is a young core that has yet to reach their ceiling. If the offense can find more consistency, and with the defense expecting back three key starters (Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, and T.J. Edwards) in the coming weeks, there are tangible reasons to believe this group has not reached its ceiling.
No matter where you stand on the optimism/skepticism scale, 2025 has been a pleasant surprise, and the book is far from written on where this team can go from here. With some adjustments, they can find their stride when the schedule is at its most challenging. If they can find a way to do that, the Bears will be playing meaningful football in January.