The Celtics successfully navigated a challenging start to their season to end up at the .500 mark after 14 games. A 7-7 record was actually underachieving for the team based on the team’s advanced metrics in large part due to underwhelming performances in crunch time (3-5 record). Boston’s expected win-loss record is 9-5 per Basketball Reference and they currently boast a +4.8 net rating, the eighth-best in the NBA despite playing without Jayson Tatum.
Boston’s performance through 14 games despite some ugly slumps from key contributors (Derrick White, Sam Hauser) and other glaring flaws (backup center) are noteworthy. They look like they belong in the middle of the playoff pack in the East and currently sit just 2.5 games behind the No. 2 seed Cavs while in a tie for the No. 10 spot. The fact they are closer to that spot than the No. 12 seed Hornets (4-10) in the East standings is a signal of just how tightly packed the East playoff picture is at this point.
The temptation of tanking for Boston in a season where Tatum is expected to miss all or the vast majority of the year is suddenly starting to fade as well. There is a massive gap between the Celtics and the bottom of the East standings already just a month into a season and that’s only expected to grow in the coming weeks.
The Pacers (1-13) have been decimated by injuries and will be playing shorthanded all year without Tyrese Haliburton. The Wizards (1-12) and Nets (2-11) have set up their rosters to tank and things are going according to plan in their first 13 games.
Meanwhile, there is also nearly as much turmoil at the bottom of the Western Conference despite several of those teams not owning their own first round picks. The Pelicans (2-12) and Mavericks (4-11) have already seen firings and massive injury issues. The Kings (3-11) have been a defensive train wreck with their mismatched roster. The Grizzlies (4-10) have experienced coaching turmoil with their star point guard and are still down four rotation players.
Throw all of this together and it’s hard to foresee a scenario where the Celtics could freefall enough in the standings to catch these teams with their current roster. Boston, outside of Tatum, has been very healthy to begin the year but things could go sideways with if a key starter goes down. Otherwise, it’s evident they have the talent level to stay in the playoff mix this year at the least.
That development may not be good for their draft possibilities but it should benefit their young reserves, gaining valuable reps in meaningful situations as this season continues. Boston needs to figure out what players on the roster they can trust next season upon returning to contention and this season looks like a good vehicle to do that.
Additional roster tweaks will surely come into play when it comes to luxury tax bills and finding useful contracts to build for the future. However, the Celtics tank question is fading away earlier than perhaps anyone could have envisioned.
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