Four weeks into the season, the Milwaukee Bucks sit 8-7, ninth in the Eastern Conference. Since a 4-1 start, they have struggled to build momentum. In that span, they have failed to win consecutive games. A Giannis Antetokounmpo injury update is pending further tests following a groin injury on Monday. Is it time for doom and gloom already? That seems like an exaggeration, but by its own projections, ESPN doesn’t seem to think so.
Anti-Bucks bias has apparently infiltrated ESPN BPI rankings
Two of Milwaukee’s losses have been with Giannis Antetokounmpo out for all or most of the game, as last night in Cleveland, when he left in the second quarter and did not return. Fans now anxiously await elaboration on the injury.
Still, when Giannis has played, Milwaukee has the No. 1 offensive net rating in the league (they’re last without him). Ryan Rollins looks like a Most Improved Player frontrunner. The Bucks are still waiting on Myles Turner and Gary Trent Jr. to snap out of early season shooting funks. Kyle Kuzma has rehabilitated his value as a contributor on offense and, at times, a borderline elite defender.
Nov 10, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) reacts against the Dallas Mavericks during the first quarter at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
The injury bug bites everyone, but Milwaukee has also played the whole season – excluding nine minutes in the opener – without its designated starting point guard in Kevin Porter Jr. That’s no small loss and still, this team is a game above .500. They haven’t had some cupcake schedule, either. Nine of their 15 games have come against teams who are also above. 500. They have gone 4-5 against such opponents: Cavaliers, Knicks, Warriors, Rockets, Raptors, and Bulls.
All that said, ESPN gives them a measly 28.2% chance to make the playoffs, with only a 65.9% shot at the play-in. By ESPN projections, the Bucks are looking at a 41-41 final record and have an 8.2% chance to finish as a top six seed. Frankly, it’s laughable.
How do the 7-7 Celtics, with no Jayson Tatum and no frontcourt, have a 58.7% playoff probability? The Miami Heat are 8-6 but somehow, with a lower preseason win total over/under than the Bucks, have a 74.7% percent chance.
Nov 12, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Ryan Rollins (13) shoots against the Charlotte Hornets during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
The 4-10 Clippers, in a loaded Western Conference? Still 43.6%. It’s not like Milwaukee has some Herculean strength of schedule. By Tankathon’s calculations, their remaining schedule ranks 14th in difficulty.
The only plausible explanation is a built-in factor anticipating an extended Giannis absence. While that is certainly in play, ESPN’s overall evaluations appear rather drastic, to say the least.
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