We are now through 11 weeks of the 2025 NFL season, and the race for the playoffs in the AFC is beginning to intensify.
Many of the usual candidates who have dominated the AFC in recent seasons have not been at their usual best this season, which has consequently allowed for some unexpected success stories to materialise at the top of the conference.
So, let's take a look at how the AFC playoff picture stands as we head into the final stretch of the regular season.
The Denver Broncos' 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers at Super Bowl 50 was the team's last playoff win, nearly 10 years ago. Last season was the first time they made the playoffs since then, but they were comfortably beaten by the Buffalo Bills in the Wildcard round.
However, having found themselves 1-2 through the first three games of this season, the Broncos have since won eight straight games and have consequently climbed into the summit of the AFC. They did so after a memorable 22-19 win over their division rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs, on Sunday, courtesy of a walk-off Will Lutz field goal.
Their defense ranks amongst the top five in the NFL this season, and has conceded an average of just 13.7 points in their last three games. With games against the Washington Commanders (3-8) and the Las Vegas Raiders (2-8) up next, the Broncos have a chance to strengthen their grip on top spot in the AFC West, and will no doubt have an eye on earning a first-round bye in the playoffs by securing the number one seed in the AFC.
After back-to-back 4-13 seasons, the NewEngland Patriots**** have completely transformed their fortunes this season and are now in pole position to win the AFC East for the first time since 2019. Like the Broncos, the Patriots have amassed an impressive eight-game winning streak having started the season 1-2, and they have done so largely thanks to their MVP candidate, Drake Maye.
Maye leads the NFL in passing yards (2,836), ranks fourth in passing touchdowns (17), and has the second-highest quarterback rating (73.2) and passer rating (113.2) in the league through 11 weeks. It certainly looks as though New England have found their next franchise quarterback, and it seems like he could be set for his first taste of the playoffs in just his second season in the league.
The Patriots sit 1.5 games clear of the Buffalo Bills at the top of the AFC East, and with five of their remaining six games coming against teams without winning records, it is not inconceivable to think that the Patriots could go from having the fourth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to becoming the number one seed in the AFC in a matter of months.
Perhaps the biggest surprise package this season has been the Indianapolis Colts. They were the number one seed in the AFC heading into their Week 11 bye, but have now fallen to the third seed following wins for the Broncos and the Patriots, taking both teams to 9-2 records.
Regardless, the Colts are still two games clear of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the race for the AFC South title, and are primed to win their first division title since 2014. The Colts lead the NFL in Points Per Game (32.1) and Total Yards Per Game (412.1), while Jonathan Taylor became the first running back this season to surpass the 1,000-yard rushing mark to add to his 15 rushing touchdowns (leads NFL) as he mounts his own claim to be MVP.
The Colts have a tough set of fixtures left with four division matchups as well as games against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Seattle Seahawks, and the San Francisco 49ers. However, their four division matchups come against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans, meaning their fate in the AFC South remains in their own hands.
Currently occupying the fourth seed in the AFC are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who sit at the top of the AFC North. Although, it is fair to say their playoff hopes still hang in the balance with a 6-4 record.
Hot on their heels are the Baltimore Ravens who, after a 1-5 start to the season, look back to their best having won four straight games to thrust themselves back into contention in the AFC North. Steelers fans also suffered a scare in their Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals when their quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, suffered a fractured wrist and was forced to leave the game at the end of the first half.
Luckily for the Steelers, Rodgers will avoid surgery and is optimistic about his chances of playing on the road against the Chicago Bears this week. The Steelers brought the former MVP in during the offseason largely due to the vast experience he brings at the quarterback position, and Pittsburgh will certainly need him ahead of what is a tough set of games remaining. They have made the playoffs in four of the last five seasons, but are still looking for their first playoff win since 2016.
The Buffalo Bills have won six straight AFC East titles, however that streak is in big jeopardy of being halted by their old foes, the New England Patriots.
A loss to the Patriots in Week 5, coupled with an uncharacteristic defeat to the Miami Dolphins in Week 10, left the Bills in a precarious position. However, a six-touchdown performance from quarterback Josh Allen in a win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday got the Bills back to winning ways and moved them up to the fifth seed in the AFC.
NFL.com still gives the Bills a 92% probability of making the playoffs, however not many teams in the league have a bigger home-field advantage come January than Buffalo. Therefore, they will be eager to claw back the 1.5-game deficit on the Patriots and reclaim their AFC East crown - which in turn would secure them home-field advantage in the Wildcard round.
6) Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
Typically, a 7-4 record for a team who has made the playoffs just twice in the last six years would be seen as a good season, but the Los Angeles Chargers are in fact in grave danger of falling out of playoff contention and are very much looking over their shoulder.
Following a promising start to the season, winning their initial three games, the Chargers have subsequently gone 4-4. This run included blowout losses against the Washington Commanders, the Indianapolis Colts, and more recently, the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Furthermore, Jim Harbaugh’s team is grappling with an increasing number of injuries, with Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Najee Harris, and Omarion Hampton currently listed on the Injury Reserve.
They still have to play all three of their division rivals as well as the Philadelphia Eagles (8-2), the Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1), and the Houston Texans (5-5), and will need a big response after their 35-6 defeat to the Jaguars if they are to fend off the teams circling below them in the AFC playoff race.
Jacksonville's resounding win over the Chargers on Sunday ensured they remain in seventh spot in the AFC, and close the gap on the AFC South leaders, the Indianapolis Colts, to two games with the teams still to play each other twice before the season ends.
The fans have been treated to many memorable moments this season, including a home win against last year's Super Bowl runners-up, the Kansas City Chiefs, before going on the road and defeating the San Francisco 49ers. However, the playoffs are now a realistic possibility for the Jags, and the win over the Chargers will revitalise the team after their divisional defeat against the Houston Texans the preceding week.
In addition to their remaining two encounters with the Colts, the Jaguars will face the Tennessee Titans (1-9) twice, the Arizona Cardinals (3-7), the New York Jets (2-8), and the Denver Broncos (9-2), with NFL.com currently giving the Jags a 65% probability of making the playoffs.
In The Hunt
You would have been forgiven for thinking prior to the season starting that the three teams currently in the hunt for a playoff spot would in fact be sat at the summit of their respective divisions by this juncture. However, that is not the case.
The Kansas City Chiefs, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Houston Texans all sit at 5-5 and have all looked a shadow of themselves at times this season. However, you would be foolish to write any of them off as we approach the business end of the regular season.
The Chiefs have arguably the greatest quarterback-head coach duo of all time in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, and always seem to thrive when doubted. The Ravens have won four straight games, and have their MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson back to his best. And as for the Texans, they have recovered from an 0-3 start to their season by going 5-2 in their following seven games, and are aiming to reach the playoffs for the third straight season.