There’s no doubt Arsenal are top of the Premier League on merit, but they have also been helped in recent weeks by a favourable run of games. Could it be the turn of Liverpool and Manchester City to benefit?
It’s 22 September 2025. We’re five games into the new season. Liverpool have the only 100% record in the Premier League and boast a five-point lead over second-placed Arsenal at the top of the table.
The reigning champions, who strengthened to the tune of almost £450 million in the summer were, in the eyes of some, running away with it.
As it turns out, those thoughts were just a little premature.
The next week, Liverpool lost 2-1 at Crystal Palace, thanks to a last-minute winner, and Arsenal won 2-1 at Newcastle, thanks to a last-minute winner.
After that eventful weekend, on 3 October, we at Opta Analyst published an article explaining why it could be the point at which the title race started to turn. Arsenal had just played the most difficult opening set of six games of every team in the league, and were only two points off top spot.
Premier league fixture difficulty first six games of 2025-26
And as we detailed here, Mikel Arteta’s side then faced the easiest run of the next five games among all 20 Premier League teams. Liverpool, meanwhile, faced the second most difficult.
Premier league fixture difficulty next five games from 3 October 2025
That was based on the average Opta Power Ranking of each opponent, which we can use to objectively rank the difficulty of each team’s upcoming matches. (If you’re not aware, the Opta Power Rankings rate more than 15,000 teams from around the world on the same scale, and we use the values in those rankings to compare the quality of teams by an objective measure.)
In the weeks that followed, Arsenal made that advantage count. They won four and drew one of that ‘easy’ run of games, while Liverpool won just one and lost four of their tricky run.
That brings us to the present day, where Arsenal are eight points clear of Liverpool, who are way down in eighth. Arsenal hold a four-point lead over second-placed Manchester City at the top of the table.
PL Table MD 11
Let’s first be clear on one thing: Arsenal didn’t just overtake Liverpool because they had an easier run of games. They rose up to top spot on merit, having grown into a brilliantly effective unit, who are barely ever broken down and score fairly reliably (even if they are criticised sometimes for leaning too heavily on set-pieces). They are on course to challenge Chelsea’s record for the fewest goals conceded in a Premier League season; that record is 15 goals, and at their current rate, Arsenal are on course to let in just 17, which would equal the second best defensive record in Premier League history.
And as the expected points table showed us in this article last week, Arsenal deserve to be in first place. Their underlying data backs up their position on top of the pile: expected goals numbers at both ends of the pitch suggest that when they have won, they have generally ‘deserved’ to, based on the quality of chances in those matches.
We can’t only attribute their rise to a favourable run of fixtures, but that said, it might well have played a part. And the upcoming fixture list suggests that anyone now declaring the title as Arsenal’s may, as was the case when Liverpool were top less than two months ago, be jumping the gun.
That’s because, looking at the difficulty of each team’s next five games, Liverpool have the easiest run of every team in the Premier League. Facing Nottingham Forest, West Ham, Sunderland, Leeds and Brighton, could this be the opportunity for Arne Slot’s side to claw their way back into the title battle?
Premier League fixture difficulty next five games
It’s also worth noting that City face the third-easiest run of games, and given they are currently the closest challengers to Arsenal – and looked mightily impressive in a 3-0 win over Liverpool just before the international break – they could well close the gap at the top, too. They face Newcastle, Leeds, Fulham, Sunderland and Crystal Palace in their next five matches.
Arsenal, meanwhile, are in mid-table when it comes to upcoming fixture difficulty. Facing a north London derby upon the return of Premier League football this weekend, followed by clashes with Chelsea, who are third, Aston Villa, who recently beat City, Brentford, who recently beat Liverpool, and Wolves, who have recently appointed a new manager, they may need to be at their best to hold on to top spot for the duration of that run.
Extending this to each team’s next eight matches – to take us to the 19-game mark, or the halfway point in the season – and Liverpool still have the most favourable run, again followed by City. Arsenal, meanwhile, move further towards the more difficult end of things.
Premier League fixture difficulty next eight games
So, by the time we reach the halfway point, Liverpool will have had ample opportunity to claw back some of the ground they have lost at the top of the league.
Of course, there’s much more to a title race than just looking at how difficult every game is according to a stats-based model. Each team will have injuries and suspensions at any given time that will affect how strong their starting XI is, while fixture pileup will undoubtedly play a part as everyone navigates the festive period. For example, Arsenal and City have to squeeze in an EFL Cup quarter-final in late December, while Liverpool will have that midweek off, having already gone out of the competition.
The main factor, though, is of course the teams themselves. Arsenal, as we’ve seen, are currently the most reliable team in the Premier League, and their form and performances should be a better barometer of the ability to keep top spot than a fixture list filled with banana skins. They give up so few chances, conceding by a distance the lowest expected goals in the league, at a rate of just 0.56 xG per game. If opponents keep on finding it that difficult to create chances against them, then positive results should continue.
Equally, Liverpool have been way, way, way off their best. They are a dysfunctional unit, too open in defence and lacking terribly in attack compared to last season. Even when they were winning at the start of the season, they were often doing so with late goals and it didn’t look sustainable. Their form dropping off didn’t come as a surprise to some.
That said, the difficulty of both teams’ games could have contributed. Perhaps Arsenal conceded quite so few goals and chances in their recent record-breaking run of games without conceding, while barely facing a shot on target, in part because of the quality of the opposition. It’s unlikely, but it may have played a part.
5 – There have been five instances of a side preventing their opponent from having a shot on target in a Premier League game this season, with Arsenal responsible for three of those (60% – vs West Ham, Fulham & Burnley). Evasive. pic.twitter.com/oMBBhLgkrT
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 1, 2025
Perhaps Liverpool’s streak of losses was because they were playing against tough opponents at a time when they were also lacking form and confidence. Maybe a kinder run of games will mean their luck turns.
So, will the fixture list open up the title race?
Based on what happened to Liverpool and Arsenal after we last took stock of the difficulty of each team’s upcoming fixtures, there’s certainly a chance.
However, Arsenal look far less fragile than Liverpool did back then, so this may well all prove to have been a fool’s errand.
Premier League Stats Opta
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