The Patriots are 9-2, riding an eight-game winning streak and set to face off against a depleted Bengals team.
Let’s answer your questions in our weekly Patriots mailbag.
@ted_mcgregor: Pats have had incredible injury luck so far. What’s the one position group (outside qb) we would see immediate downturn in play if starters started to fall?
That’s a really good question. As you said, Drake Maye is the most irreplaceable player on the roster.
Behind him, based on depth, I think Christian Gonzalez, Will Campbell and Robert Spillane might be the most invaluable starters.
The Patriots lost their only two games of the season without Gonzalez. If he or Carlton Davis suffered injuries, it would mean more snaps outside for Marcus Jones and a top-three cornerback role for Charles Woods.
Campbell’s backups at left tackle are Vederian Lowe and Marcus Bryant. Morgan Moses also deserves a spot on this list, but it’s somewhat easier to get by without a starting right tackle.
And Spillane is far and away the Patriots’ best linebacker. The defense would suffer quite a bit if Christian Elliss, Jack Gibbens or Jahlani Tavai were asked to play his role, though they’re all solid in their secondary roles in the defense.
Beyond those players, Stefon Diggs, Marcus Jones, Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Harold Landry III and K’Lavon Chaisson would all be missed, but the Patriots have better depth at wide receiver and defensive tackle.
@Patsfan19838268: I am still scared of Denver at Denver no matter who their QB is based on our history on the road there in the playoffs. Do you think that is a valid concern this year and I am right to be rooting against Denver hard each week so they have to play us at home if it came to that?
I personally don’t put a lot of stock into team vs. team performance if none of the players or coaches are still around. I don’t really care how the Patriots performed in Denver in 2013 or 2015, because Peyton Manning was the quarterback, and Gary Kubiak and John Fox were the head coaches.
I don’t think there’s anything particular about playing in Denver in January that should make a winnable matchup more difficult. That 2013 Patriots team wasn’t as talented as the 2014, 2016 and 2018 squads, plus they didn’t have Rob Gronkowski. The 2015 team was injury-ravaged, as well. There were a number of key players on injured reserve by the end of that season.
Ultimately, the No. 1 seed in the playoffs has never been more valuable since only one team per confernence gets a bye, and you get home-field advantage throughout the postseason. So, you should be rooting against Denver and any team that could take that away from the Patriots.
@NEspiders: Is Harold Landry playing injured? He started off the season strong with sacks/pressures and since his injury he has not been much of a factor on the pass rush.
Landry hasn’t been listed on the injury report since Week 7, when he was questionable with an ankle injury. I know he had what appeared to be a scary knee injury against the Saints in Week 6, but he returned to that game.
He hasn’t had more than four pressures in a game since Week 5, but he is playing a lot. He’s played the eighth-most defensive snaps of any edge defender in the NFL, he’s 29 years old, and the Patriots haven’t hard their bye week yet.
I’m curious to see if he can produce more this Sunday against the Bengals, since the Patriots got a mini bye coming off of the Thursday night game against the Jets.
Landry has still be a solid defender, despite the low sack numbers in recent weeks. I wouldn’t mind seeing Elijah Ponder and potentially Bradyn Swinson mixed in more over the final third of the season.
Ponder, an undrafted rookie, now has sacks in consecutive weeks. Swinson was signed off of the practice squad this week. There’s no guarantee that he’ll be active on Sundays, but he was a very disruptive pass-rusher during his senior season at LSU, registering 60 total pressures.
He had the fifth-highest pass-rush productivity among edge defenders in his draft class, per PFF, and his pass-rush win rate also ranked fifth.
Expectations should be tempered since Swinson didn’t even make the roster out of training camp and spent the first 11 weeks of the season on the practice squad, but there’s some upside there.
@KickRaeble: At the beginning of the season, making the playoffs was the goal. How far do we move the goalposts for this team after the surprising first 11 weeks?
If the goal at the beginning of the season was to make the playoffs, then it was a pretty lofty one. The Patriots went 4-13 in back-to-back years, and their over/under win total was just 8.5 games.
I think making the playoffs probably became the goal after beating the Bills. That’s at least when I started talking about playoffs in earnest.
Now, I would say the goal is to win at least one playoff game. There’s still time to raise that ceiling again by the end of the season.
@Mettwurscht12: How do the Pats use their safeties? Do they play a lot of Cover 2 or is Woodson more of a FS?
The Patriots mix their coverages pretty evenly.
Here’s the breakdown, via Sumer Sports:
Cover 3: 26.30%
Cover 1: 25.72%
Cover 2: 21.10%
Cover 4: 16.76%
Cover 6: 3.76%
Redzone: 2.60%
Cover 0: 2.02%
Cover 2 Man: 0.87%
Misc: 0.87%
They’re in post safety (one safety deep) looks 52.2% of the time, split safety (two safeties deep) looks 41.1% of the time and other 6.7% of the time.
Jaylinn Hawkins is aligned as a free safety on 67.4% of snaps, while Craig Woodson is aligned as a free safety on 59.8% of his snaps.
So, to answer your question, everything is pretty even. Hawkins plays a higher percentage of snaps at free safety, but Woodson’s rate is still over 50%. They’re both safeties. There’s not a traditional strong safety and free safety. If anything, they’re both more free safety types than strong safety types.