After battling through the first 10 games of the season, the Green Bay Packers will begin their playoff push with a tough closing stretch of opponents that includes five of their six division matchups.
Here is a key to winning and a potential problem for each of the Packers’ remaining games, starting with their Week 12 NFC North matchup against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.
Record: 4-6 (2-1 vs. NFC North)
Key to Winning: With a first-year starter at quarterback, the best thing the defense can do is try to make him as uncomfortable as possible in the pocket. J.J. McCarthy has struggled this season, throwing for just 168.4 yards per game on an NFL-worst 52.9 percent completion and a negative touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also been sacked 15 times in just five games.
A strong performance from the defensive front could be the key to victory for the Packers. If the secondary can take away his options and the Packers’ pass rushers are in his face all day, it will be nearly impossible for him to settle in.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) looks to throw downfield during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) looks to throw downfield during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
Reason to Worry: With key injuries sidelining some of the Packers’ top offensive performers, it could end up being difficult to move the ball against the Vikings’ 10th-ranked defense. Specifically, after losing Tucker Kraft in Week 9, the Packers have had almost no production from the tight end position. The new starter, Luke Musgrave, was benched last week.
The Vikings have a good pass defense, ranking seventh in the league with 190.5 yards allowed per game. Nearly 60 of those yards on average come from opposing tight ends, something the Packers may not be able to take advantage of with such little production from that position group.
Record: 6-4 (1-2 vs. NFC North)
Key to Winning: The Lions’ four losses have proven that their high-powered offense can be stopped, and stopping them starts with shutting down their lead running back, Jahmyr Gibbs. He is 10th in the NFL in yards per game at 73.2, sixth with 5.23 yards per carry and fourth with eight rushing touchdowns. However, in their four losses, he is averaging just 37 yards per game and has yet to score.
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) runs for a first down against the Green Bay Packers.
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) runs for a first down against the Green Bay Packers. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
While he had a great night in the receiving game on Sunday against the Eagles, it’s his rushing production that needs to be held in check. The Packers have proven they are up to the task before, holding him to just 19 yards in their Week 1 matchup.
Reason to Worry: Led by Jared Goff, who is third in passer rating even after a rough night against the Eagles, the Lions have a great passing attack at ninth in the NFL in passing yards per game. Goff is surrounded by a deep group of pass catchers. The Lions have seven players with double-digit catches, six players with 100-plus yards and six players with multiple touchdown catches. One of those players is premier tight end Sam LaPorta, who was placed on injured reserve last week.
With the Lions, it seems like when one option is locked down in the passing game, two more spring up. If the entire Packers’ secondary isn’t on point on Thanksgiving, it could end up being a very rough holiday.
Record: 7-3 (1-2 vs. NFC North)
Key to Winning: The biggest key for the Packers avenging last year’s loss at Lambeau Field against the Bears is to take advantage of their lackluster passing defense. At 23rd in the NFL, the Bears give up 231.3 passing yards per game, nearly a perfect match for the Packers’ 230.5 passing yards per game on offense.
The Packers could be adding another piece to their passing game around this time. Jayden Reed, who had been playing through a foot injury before sustaining a broken collarbone in Week 2, hinted on social media that his 21-day practice window was about to be opened. Reed led the team in receptions and receiving yards in each of his first two games and is an excellent run-after-catch threat.
Chicago Bears free safety Kevin Byard returns an interception last week against the Vikings.
Chicago Bears free safety Kevin Byard returns an interception last week against the Vikings. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Reason to Worry: The Bears’ defense has been exceptional at forcing turnovers. Led by safety Kevin Byard III with five interceptions, they lead the league with 15 interceptions and 22 takeaways. Cornerback Nahshon Wright and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds have four interceptions apiece and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson and defensive end Montez Sweat each have a pair of forced fumbles. They lead the league in turnover differential at plus-16.
While the Packers have the third-fewest giveaways in the NFL with seven (three interceptions, four fumbles), playing against this strong Bears defensive unit could prove to be a bigger challenge than they have had all year.
Record: 9-2 (3-0 against NFC opponents)
Key to Winning: Against such a tough opponent with such a high-powered offense, the best thing the Packers can do is control the football. In both of the Broncos’ losses, they were beaten by their opponent in time of possession. Against the Chargers, they had the ball for 13 less minutes than the L.A. offense in the three-point loss. In their nine wins, their opponents have possessed the ball more just four times, two of which were by just over a minute or less.
If the Packers are going to beat the current AFC leaders and one of the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl, they will have to keep the ball out of the hands of Bo Nix and the Denver offense and wear down their strong defense with long, methodical drives.
Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) reacts after a missed field goal by Indianapolis Colts kicker Spencer Shrader.
Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) reacts after a missed field goal by Indianapolis Colts kicker Spencer Shrader. / INDIANAPOLIS STAR-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images
Reason to Worry: The biggest strength for the Broncos is their incredible pass rush. Led by linebackers Nik Bonitto with 9.5 sacks and Jonathon Cooper with 7.5 sacks, the Broncos have a 15-sack lead in the team rankings in that category with 49.
On the bright side, the Broncos have faced five of the 10 worst offensive lines in the NFL in sacks given up. The Packers’ offensive line has been inconsistent but the team has given up the seventh-fewest sacks. New starting center Sean Rhyan must get settled into his role because the Broncos have players all over the field who can get sacks, with 14 different players recording at least one this season.
Record: 7-3 (3-1 at home)
Key to Winning: As noted above, the Bears have a lackluster pass defense. Their 25th-ranked run defense is even worse, and the Packers will need to take advantage. The Bears give up 133.3 yards per game on the ground on a 29th-ranked 5.19 yards per carry. They’ve yielded at least 115 rushing yards in eight of 10 games.
Josh Jacobs is dealing with a knee injury leading into Sunday’s game against the Vikings. If he’s back to full speed for this matchup and if the passing game is firing on all cylinders with the return of Jayden Reed, the Packers could be in for a late-season surge on offense.
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) throws during the fourth quarter against Green Bay last season.
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) throws during the fourth quarter against Green Bay last season. / Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Reason to Worry: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has improved by leaps and bounds this season, and he has been getting better as the season has progressed. Over the past three weeks, he has led the Bears to three consecutive come-from-behind wins, including a 47-point performance against the Bengals in Week 9.
With veteran running back D’Andre Swift starting to find his footing in the backfield with four games of 80-plus yards in his last five outings, rookie tight end Colston Loveland coming on strong and Williams starting to thrive alongside first-year coach Ben Johnson, the Bears are starting to become a dangerous offense with a big-play defense to match it.
Record: 5-5 (2-2 against NFC opponents)
Keys to Winning: With the Ravens’ offense finding its footing during a four-game winning streak in which it scored at least 23 points in every game, the Packers will have to take advantage of their poor passing defense. The Ravens rank 24th with 232.7 passing yards allowed per game. In their five losses, they have allowed 262.8 passing yards per game and 12 touchdowns.
If the Packers want to match the production of an offense led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, they will have to take advantage of the Ravens passing defense and unleash Jordan Love and the receiving corps.
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) is tackled by Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward .
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) is tackled by Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward . / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
Reason to Worry: Derrick Henry is sixth in the NFL with 807 rushing yards and, unfortunately for the Packers, he’s only been getting better every week. After failing to eclipse 50 yards in four consecutive games, he has topped 100 yards in three of his last five games and surpassed 70 yards in all five. He has always been tough to bring down, and that has continued this season as he ranks seventh with 3.49 yards after contact per rushing attempt, according to Pro Football Focus.
If the Packers can’t stop Henry on the ground, it also opens up opportunities for the Ravens’ other playmakers on the ground and through the air. With his ability to break tackles, he could be a tough challenge for the Packers, who have tackled well for most of the season but did not against the Giants.
Record: 4-6 (2-5 at home)
Keys to Winning: At 22nd in the NFL, the Vikings’ run defense has been vulnerable this season, giving up 127.0 yards per game and eight touchdowns. Minnesota’s run defense has run hot and cold, with six games off more than 130 rushing yards allowed but three off less than 65 – including 45 against Philadelphia and 65 against Detroit.
By the end of the season, the goal is to obviously be healthy and primed for a deep playoff run, so a day off for Josh Jacobs, who has dealt with minor injuries throughout the year, isn’t completely out of the question, especially if the Packers have locked up a playoff spot. If this game ends up being a must-win for the Packers, Jacobs could see a lot of action as the focal point of the offense against a below-average run defense.
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) scores a touchdown on Green Bay Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon.
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) scores a touchdown on Green Bay Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon. / Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Reason to Worry: While the passing game has been struggling due to bad quarterback play, especially in the last few games, the Vikings’ receiving corps is not to be taken lightly. Led by arguably the best receiver in professional football in Justin Jefferson and possibly the best WR2 in the NFL in Jordan Addison, they are always primed for a big game through the air.
The Packers’ 10th-ranked pass defense will be put to the test. Keisean Nixon, who leads the NFL in passes defensed with 14, and Carrington Valentine, who has given up two catches for 15 yards the last two weeks, will need to be at their best.
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