The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
**👉 Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files:** Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing **Jahmyr Gibbs** during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as particularly actionable.
It’s time for our semi-regular look at which offenses are creating the most air yards — a good indication of which quarterbacks and pass catchers might be due for a visit from the Regression Reaper this week.
1. Rams (291)
2. Texans (281)
3. Cowboys (280)
4. Broncos (279)
5. Saints (275)
6. Chiefs (273)
7. Bears (271)
8. Jaguars (270)
9. Chargers (262)
10. Giants (255)
11. Patriots (254)
**Davis Mills**, who has unlocked the Houston offense much to the chagrin of **CJ Stroud** truthers, is fifth in passing yards and first in air yards over his Week 10-11 starts. No one is close to Houston in total team air yards over those two games. It gives **Nico Collins** — who I unfortunately wrote about last week as a negative regression guy — as much weekly upside as any receiver in the game and it could lead to some spiked games for Mills’ secondary options. Running about half the routes in the Texans’ offense, **Jayden Higgins** has 205 air yards in Mills’ two starts, good for a 26 percent air yards share. One would think this might eventually matter for Higgins as a WR3/4 option.
The Cardinals, not listed above as they recover from the horror show that was **Kyler Murray** under center, have averaged 320 air yards per game in **Jacoby Brissett**’s starts. That, as you can see, would comfortably lead the NFL. We saw what that sort of air yard production can do for a receiver when **Michael Wilson** was immediately better and more productive than **Marvin Harrison Jr.** in Week 11 against the Niners. Even a wideout as inefficient as MHJ can get there with Brissett putting up this many air yards and the Arizona offense operating seven percent over its expected pass rate. Brissett is one of the few starting QBs who can support multiple fantasy options in a given week.
In another universe where **Rome Odunze** has a halfway accurate passer throwing him footballs, he would be one of the season’s most consequential fantasy players. He has **Caleb Williams** though, and Williams has stunk in 2025. He’s 22nd out of 34 qualifying QBs in downfield accuracy. Williams ranks sixth in deep attempts (46) and 12th in deep ball connections (14). Odunze has borne the brunt of all this: He’s fourth in air yards and 37th in actual, edible receiving yards. Maybe Caleb will accidentally throw a catchable downfield ball or two in the final month of the season. We’ll see.
**Chris Olave**, against all odds, could be a major fantasy difference maker in the final five weeks of the fantasy season. After being the woebegone Regression Files cover guy for much of September and October, Olave in Week 10 — with **Rashid Shaheed** dispatched to Seattle — accounted for 55 percent of the Saints’ air yards, or 148 air yards. Olave saw a target on 33 percent of his routes in Week 10, a jump from his 26 percent rate over the season’s first nine weeks. **Tyler Shough** in that Week 10 outburst averaged 10.4 air yards per attempt, the fifth highest mark of the week. The absence of Shaheed should make Olave an air yards freak in the coming weeks. He has far more upside than fantasy managers might realize.
The Cowboys’ air yards output doesn’t really matter for anyone but **George Pickens** and **CeeDee Lamb**, who have combined to account for almost 72 percent of the team’s total air yards over Dallas’ past four games. That the Cowboys are producing so many weekly air yards is part of the reason both Pickens and Lamb are top 12 fantasy options going forward.
New England’s consistent team air yards output has made for some interesting high-variance receiver options this season. First it was **Kayshon Boutte**, then it was **Demario Douglas**, then it was **Mack Hollins**, whose 250 air yards leads the team by a wide margin over the past two games. An air yards per target of 17 is going to get you some ugly box scores, but it could also lead to some fat stat lines. Only six wideouts have more air yards than Hollins over the past couple games. If Boutte remains out in Week 12, Hollins should be in most 12-team lineups with the Patriots vs. Bengals sporting a hefty 49.5-point implied total.
Fewest Air Yards Per Game
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* 27\. Panthers (207)
* 28\. Ravens (197)
* 29\. Lions (195)
* 30\. Dolphins (193)
* 31\. Jets (191)
* 32\. Steelers (171)
Since Week 7, the Tyreek-less Miami offense has averaged 183 air yards per game, lower than their already-low season average. There’s just not much to go around here outside of 10 or so weekly targets forced to **Jaylen Waddle** and a bunch of check downs to **De’Von Achane**, who has become something of a PPR cheat code in the tradition of **Christian McCaffrey**. **Malik Washington**’s meager 11 percent air yards share somehow ranks second among all Miami pass catchers over the team’s past four games. Like I said: There’s nothing here.
Pittsburgh’s offense relies on yards after the catch more than any other in the league. That reliance on YAC has only increased over the past month, with 71 percent of the Steelers’ receiving yards coming after the catch. They’re averaging 2.8 downfield passes per game, and **Aaron Rodgers** has a league-low 6.0 air yards per attempt. There’s no air yards savior walking through that door: **Mason Rudolph**, who might start in Week 12 with Rodgers dealing with a broken wrist, averaged just 2.6 air yards per attempt last week against the Bengals. The main takeaway here is that **DK Metcalf** will continue to be way more touchdown reliant than you want him to be.
Though the Panthers’ pass game went berserk in Week 11 against a Falcons defense that has apparently given up on the 2025 season, they didn’t produce a ton of air yards. Their 293 air yards ranks 12th on the week. It was well above their season average but likely more an illusion than a sign of things to come. Carolina has the league’s second lowest pass rate over expected this season. Since Week 5 they are a rather stunning nine percent below their expected pass rate, by far the lowest in the NFL. I don’t think any Carolina pass catchers are reliable outside of **Tetairoa McMillan**. I’m probably not breaking any news there.
The Lions have seen a bump in total air yards since Analytics King **Dan Campbell** mercifully took over play calling duties in Week 10. Detroit has averaged 210 team air yards over the two games with Campbell at the helm of the offense. **Amon-Ra St. Brown** has easily led all Detroit pass catchers with a 46 percent air yards share over those two games. **Jameson Williams**, in his crossing route-heavy role, has seen his air yards dip while his targets have risen over those two games.
Positive Regression Candidates
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Chase Brown, RB (CIN)
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I need Regression Files readers to know that Brown’s Week 11 usage was more than OK. It was terrific in every way.
All it took was a serious **Samaje Perine** ankle injury to get Brown back to his 2024 utilization in the pass-obsessed Bengals offense. Brown in Week 11 against the Steelers ran a route on 83 percent of the Bengals’ drop backs and drew seven targets, good for a target per route run of 21 percent, far higher than his season-long rate.
Brown accounted for 18 of the team’s 20 running back rushes against the Steelers. That’s all well and good, but it’s the pass-catching role we care about here. **Joe Flacco** has one of the league’s highest checkdown rates since he was traded to Cincinnati in Week 7. Brown, who was fourth in running back expected fantasy points last week, has to remain in lineups for as long as Perine is out.
**Oronde Gadsden II, TE (LAC)**
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Don’t get spooked by Gadsden’s disappearing act in Week 11 against the Jaguars. The entire Chargers offense once again buckled without all-important left tackle **Joe Alt**. Fellow Rotoworlder Kyle Dvorchak [wrote this week](https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/10-fantasy-football-takeaways-from-week-11-diagnosing-the-chargers-and-chiefs-struggles) about the Bolts’ offense becoming one of the NFL’s worst with Alt sidelined.
Gadsden still ran 76 percent of the routes against the Jags and was targeted on a fine and dandy 22 percent of those routes. **Justin Herbert** being forced into quick checkdown throws thanks to his deteriorating offensive line probably means more short-area looks for Gadsden in the coming weeks. Do yourself a favor and hang on to Gadsden through the Bolts’ Week 12 bye. You’re still starting him when the Chargers return to action in Week 13.
Negative Regression Candidates
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**AJ Barner, TE (SEA)**
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Placing the monstrous Seattle tight end in this negative regression spot isn’t a dismissal of what he did in Week 11 against the Rams, catching 10 of 11 targets for 77 yards while running a season-high route rate (82 percent) and seeing a target on 27 percent of his routes. Barner’s Week 11 utilization was nothing short of fantastic.
It also represents a major outlier in how the Seahawks have used Barner this season. Through Week 10, he had run just 60 percent of the team’s routes and was targeted on a lowly 15 percent of those routes. **Elijah Arroyo**, who was seemingly demoted on Sunday against the Rams, had a higher targets per route run than Barner through the season’s first 10 weeks (while running a route on 41 percent of the team’s drop backs).
There’s also the matter of game script. The Seahawks, who had enjoyed as much positive script as any team in the NFL going into Week 11, were chasing points for much of their loss to LA. **Sam Darnold** consequently threw 44 passes,10 more than he had thrown in any game leading up to the Week 11 loss. The Seahawks average 24.3 pass attempts per game in wins this season.
As of this writing, I can’t find any comments from Seattle coaches about Barner’s Week 11 outburst and whether that usage will persist in the coming weeks. A Week 12 matchup against the Titans — a game that has the Hawks favored by 13.5 points — would seem to indicate a low-volume passing outing for Darnold and the Seattle offense. It feels like a trap.
**Bryce Young, QB (CAR)**
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Sometimes this column writes itself. When **Bryce Young** pops off for 448 yards and two touchdowns, my fingers start jabbing at the keyboard all by themselves. It’s quite the thing to witness. It’s upsetting to my kids for some reason.
While Young’s Week 12 matchup against the 49ers isn’t half bad — the game features a solid total of 48.5 points — you should be aware of how out-of-absolutely-nowhere his Week 11 performance was.
First, there’s the Panthers’ approach against the Falcons: Carolina was one percent over its expected pass rate, which doesn’t sound like much until you consider they were eight percent below their expected pass rate from Week 5 to Week 10. The Panthers came into Week 11with a 54 percent neutral pass rate; that spiked to 64 percent against the Falcons. That’s a huge shift, one I’m not sure head coach **Dave Canales** would want to repeat in the coming weeks.
If this pass-heaviness becomes a trend, this analysis will look quite silly come Monday morning. What I’m saying is that Young will require this kind of drop back volume if he’s going to get there for fantasy purposes. He wasn’t particularly efficient against the Falcons, logging a drop back EPA barely inside the top 10 for Week 11 and a fantasy points per drop of 0.64, a good rate but one in line with **Justin Fields** and **Trevor Lawrence** for Week 11.
**Juwan Johnson, TE (NO)**
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I know folks are going to be upset about this one. Of course Johnson won’t catch two touchdowns every week like he did the last time the Saints played in Week 10, you’ll say. Why even mention him here?
It goes beyond the Week 10 touchdown luck (Juwan’s defender fell down on both of his touchdown grabs against the Panthers). Johnson ran a meager 70 percent of the team’s routes in Week 10 and saw a target on just 18 percent of those routes. He had four targets and averaged 23 yards per reception. He’s an OK streaming option but be careful how you use Johnson in Week 12 against an Atlanta defense allowing the second fewest targets per game to tight ends.