The legendary Brazilian playwright and sportswriter Nelson Rodrigues was not impressed with the advent of televised matches. “If the videotape shows it’s a penalty then all the worse for the videotape,” he once famously fumed. “The videotape is stupid.”
One can only imagine what he would have made of VAR.
There has been speculation about widening the reach of video assistant referees in the years to come, but they seem to be causing enough strife in the Premier League as it is. Each weekend is invariably dominated by one divisive decision—or, more often, non-decision—after another, with managers, players and pundits getting caught up in the controversy.
Football fans have infamously fickle memories and those appealing for a world without VAR have undoubtedly forgotten about the cries of conspiracy which littered the game before the touchline monitors took over. Enter this harmless thought experiment.
Combing back through the season’s results and altering each outcome under the assumption that the on-pitch referee’s decision was always final creates a hypothetical world without VAR.
It’s an imperfect model: goals—disallowed or otherwise—change games, so It’s impossible to know quite how these matches would have played out if VAR had not intervened; we are also working under the assumption that every penalty which was overturned by VAR would have been scored.
But it serves as a rough indicator of how much impact Stockley Park has on the Premier League. Some clubs have certainly felt the pinch more than others.
Referee looking at VAR screen.
VAR have disallowed eight Premier League goals this season. / Justin Setterfield/Getty Images
Arsenal have been spared any decisive VAR interventions this season. The Gunners saw four separate match-winning “goals” disallowed by the distant officials in 2024–25 (robbing them of eight points which still wouldn’t have been enough to dethrone Liverpool). Yet, this campaign, the two penalties which they have had overturned have not denied them any points.
Mikel Arteta was particularly unimpressed with the spot kick Viktor Gyökeres had taken away against Newcastle United in September. That bubbling fury was dampened by a stoppage-time winner from Gabriel, while Arsenal were already 1–0 up against Fulham when Bukayo Saka had a spot kick chalked off.
Bournemouth certainly would have benefitted from a little less VAR-ing. The Cherries went into the international break in ninth, but just two more points would take them soaring up into the top three. That additional windfall could have come at Selhurst Park in October, when the first goal of Jean-Philippe Mateta’s hat-trick for Crystal Palace in a chaotic 3–3 draw was given by VAR after establishing that the Frenchman had, in fact, been onside.
Position / Team Points Position Change Compared to Actual Table
1. Arsenal 26 —
2. Man City 22 —
3. Bournemouth 20 6 Up
4. Liverpool 19 4 Up
5. Tottenham 18 —
6. Brighton 18 5 Up
7. Aston Villa 18 1 Down
8. Man Utd 18 1 Down
9. Chelsea 17 6 Down
10. Sunderland 17 6 Down
11. Crystal Palace 17 1 Down
12. Brentford 15 —
13. Everton 15 —
14. Fulham 12 1 Up
15. Newcastle 12 1 Down
16. Leeds 11 —
17. Burnley 10 —
18. West Ham 10 —
19. Nottingham Forest 9 —
20. Wolves 2 —
Palace were spared by the all-seeing eye of VAR once again against Brighton earlier this month.
The Seagulls had a second-half penalty scrubbed off after VAR deemed that Georginio Rutter had dived to win the spot kick. In a world without the intervention of Paul Howard, and acting under the assumption that Danny Welbeck would have converted the penalty, Brighton could have enjoyed two more points and leapt up five places in this densely packed table.
Brighton’s rise would theoretically nudge Manchester United down, although none of Ruben Amorim’s results have been directly impacted by VAR overturns so far. The Red Devils had two interventions cancel each other out at the end of August.
United were initially denied a first-half penalty given by on-pitch official Sam Barrott against Burnley before Con Hatzidakis spared the blushes of a returning Kyle Walker. However, VAR would rule in favour of United in stoppage time, penalising Jaidon Antony for a tug on Amad Diallo to give Bruno Fernandes the chance to win it from 12 yards. He duly took it.
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk’s frustrations were evident last weekend. / Michael Regan/Getty Images
Liverpool went into November’s international break seething over the refereeing decisions which plagued their defeat to Manchester City. Virgil van Dijk’s goal was disallowed for an offside from Andy Robertson by the on-pitch assistant referee, but Arne Slot freely admitted that debatable decision was not why they were so convincingly beaten.
However, their 3–2 reverse against Brentford two weeks earlier may very well have played out differently without VAR. Van Dijk once again found himself at the epicentre.
The record-breaking Dutchman was initially flagged for a free kick on Dango Ouattara only for VAR to determine that the offence took place inside the box. Igor Thiago converted the spot kick to make it 3–1. Yet, had the Brazilian not scored, Mohamed Salah’s late strike would theoretically have been an equaliser at 2–2.
That one extra point would lift Liverpool above the condensed pack of teams in the top half of the table, taking them all the way up to fourth.
Liverpool VAR Overturns
Game VAR Intervention Result Without VAR
Oct. 25 / Brentford 3–2 Liverpool Brentford penalty given (and scored) Brentford 2–2 Liverpool
Nov. 1 / Liverpool 2–0 Aston Villa Liverpool goal disallowed Liverpool 3–0 Aston Villa
Chelsea players beneath a VAR screen.
Chelsea benefitted from a slew of VAR decisions at the start of the season. / Mike Hewitt/Getty Images
If Liverpool have suffered at the hands of VAR, Chelsea have been prime beneficiaries.
The Blues had a Stockley Park-riddled opening few weeks of the new season. On the very first weekend of the campaign, Eberechi Eze—then at Crystal Palace—saw his free-kick chalked off by VAR, ensuring that Chelsea emerged with a point against the Eagles.
In another London derby just a fortnight later, Fulham were twice punished by VAR at Stamford Bridge. Josh King had what he thought was the first goal of his senior career cruelly crossed off thanks to a soft foul in the buildup from Rodrigo Muniz.
João Pedro compounded Fulham’s woes with an opening goal in an elongated first-half stoppage time before Enzo Fernández promptly twisted the knife with a second-half penalty given by that same VAR, Michael Salisbury. Marco Silva could scarcely contain his rage when he called the decisions “unbelievable.”
Without VAR’s influence, Chelsea would be three points worse off and drop from third down to ninth.
Chelsea VAR Overturns
Game VAR Intervention Result Without VAR
Aug. 17 / Chelsea 0–0 Crystal Palace Palace goal disallowed Chelsea 0–1 Crystal Palace
Aug. 22 / West Ham 1–5 Chelsea West Ham goal disallowed West Ham 2–5 Chelsea
Aug. 30 / Chelsea 2–0 Fulham Fulham goal disallowed, Chelsea penalty given (and scored) Chelsea 1–1 Fulham
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