Third-and-long is a situation that is ideally avoided as much as possible on offense, and feels like a dagger if a defense allows such a conversion.
Today, I wanted to look at these third-and-long situations (>= 7 yards to go), focusing on offenses and adding context with league-wide comparisons by game and by season.
First, let’s look at the weekly view for offenses to date. This visual includes attempts (logo size) and success rates (converting a first down):
Very telling visual. Pittsburgh has only been better than the 25.5-percent NFL mean conversion rate on third-and-long three times in 2025. These occurred in the season opener against the Jets and in both matchups against their last opponent in Cincinnati. The latter makes sense, feeling an improvement watching last week’s blowout win, going 3-of-6 on third-and-long.
All three conversions came in the second half, meaning QB Mason Rudolph was solely responsible for the quality rate in Week 11, with starter Aaron Rodgers ruled out at halftime (wrist injury). This has some people up in arms about the offense looking better with Rudolph, which it did in this game. Interestingly, the Steelers were one of just four teams with a perfect third-and-long conversion rate in a game, in Week 7 against the Bengals (3-of-3).
They did their job in this regard, limiting the situation to their fewest attempts of 2025, but converting when they were in third-and-long. That loss was more on the defense, unfortunately. Pittsburgh’s offense has been below the NFL mean success in 7-of-10 games, along with converting zero third and longs in three games. Clearly, the Bengals contests are where the Steelers have found most of their success, against a weak defense.
Perfect time to transition to the offensive season view, with the success numbers from earlier, along with expected points added (EPA):
The Steelers offense has been below league average in both on the year, as you’d probably guess after seeing the weekly results. Their 22.2-percent success rate ranks 23rd, and -0.16 EPA lands 21st. If not for Cincinnati, the 2025 success rates would look grim, no doubt. Pittsburgh’s season average in success when removing the Bengals games is an abysmal 14-percent on third-and-longs. Far from good enough, and would aid the unit if remedied.
Overall, the Steelers have 54 third-and-long attempts, which ties for the ninth-fewest, a positive aspect of this situational play in 2025. But the quality has not been consistent with Rodgers and company. Comparatively, Pittsburgh’s defense has forced the opposition into third and longs 66 times, tying for fifth best in the NFL. Allowing a 27.3-percent success rate ties for 19th, and an EPA of -0.07 ranks 18th, though. Definitely room for improvement, too.
The next challenge on the schedule is the Chicago Bears. Their defense ranks best in the NFL with a 14.6-percent success rate on third-and-longs. On paper, this presents concern for optimism for Pittsburgh’s offense to trend positively. Avoiding and improving the situation should be high on the radar, in my opinion, and would aid a hopeful victory.
Chicago also ranks 11th on offense with a 27.0-percent third-and-long success rate, along with a 0.14 EPA that’s sixth-best. Both are impressive, particularly the latter, which measures the impact of scoring compared to expectations. The Bears have definitely been the better team in third-and-long situations. They have faced the situation a lot, though, ranking 22nd in third-and-long attempts, but are overcoming, unlike the Steelers overall in 2025.
Bucking these facts to date should be one of Pittsburgh’s primary focuses, and hopefully that is the case this Sunday in Chicago.
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