The Patriots are coming off a mini-bye week feeling great about their 9-2 record, but the attrition of a long season is starting to take a toll on the roster.
Until recently, the Patriots had placed only one regular contributor on in-season injured reserve, RB Antonio Gibson (knee), and had one of the healthiest rosters in the NFL. However, in the last few weeks, significant injuries have begun to emerge. New England has played its last three games without RB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe), its last two contests without starting WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), and TE Austin Hooper (concussion) sat out Week 11.
Then, maybe the most significant injury loss occurred during last Thursday night's win over the Jets when star DT Milton Williams reportedly suffered a high-ankle sprain that will sideline him for at least the next four games. Over the weekend, the team placed Williams on injured reserve, meaning he'll miss upcoming games against the Bengals, Giants, Bills, and Ravens – a major blow to the Patriots defense.
The former Eagle has been a home run free-agent signing, ranking third among defensive tackles in ESPN's pass-rush win rate metric (14%), while his relentless effort and finish help champion head coach Mike Vrabel's top non-negotiable for his team's identity. Standout DT Christian Barmore and Williams have been of the league's best DT tandems, so it's significant that Williams will miss critical games down the stretch.
This week, the Patriots travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals (3-7) without standout WR Ja'Marr Chase (suspension) and top pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson (hip/pelvis). However, star QB Joe Burrow practiced fully for the first time since sustaining a turf toe injury in Week 2, opening the door for a potential return on Sunday. Reports from Cincinnati have indicated that Burrow is eying a return in Week 13, but there's a chance he comes back earlier. At the same time, backup QB Joe Flacco is practicing in a limited capacity due to an injury to his throwing shoulder, so there's uncertainty at quarterback for the Bengals.
Although being down Chase puts a wrench in things, the Bengals offense has been fully operational since trading for Flacco. The 40-year-old former Raven has the Bengals offense averaging 28.6 points (fourth in the NFL) and 279.8 passing yards (third in the NFL) in Flacco's five games as Cincinnati's starter. The Bengals are 1-4 in Flacco's starts, primarily because of a poor defense, not the offense. Cincy lost recent games in which they scored 42 and 38 points but showed some vulnerabilities in a 34-12 loss to the Steelers in Week 11.
Although it's hard to envision the Bengals as potent offensively without Chase, the Patriots defense will still need to overcome the injury to Williams; star WR Tee Higgins and RB Chase Brown are enough to think about defensively. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots offense has registered in the mid-20s over the last three weeks (24, 28, and 27 points). Even without Chase, the path to a Bengals victory is winning in a shootout. Maye, who is searching for his first-career 300-yard passing performance, will face a Bengals defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA. But, truth be told, New England's offense hasn't had to win a high-scoring affair where the opposing offense is up for the challenge.
From this perspective, it'll be interesting to see both potential paths to victory for the Patriots. Can they match a capable offense on the scoreboard, or can they devise and execute a game plan that limits a shorthanded Cincy offense? Either way, we'll get some questions answered about New England this week, regardless of their opponent's record.
Let's preview the chess match between the Patriots and Bengals in Cincinnati on Sunday.
**Defense Key: Do the Patriots Still Use the Two-High Safety Blueprint Without Chase in the Lineup?**
We'll start with the Patriots defense because the Bengals offense leading them to a win is their most probable path to victory.
Although it's challenging to prepare for two different quarterbacks, the Bengals traditional West Coast system under head coach Zac Taylor has stayed relatively the same regardless of the quarterback. Burrow is the more dynamic playmaker with mobility and accuracy to all three levels. Still, the Bengals offense has always been somewhat rudimentary. When you have Burrow, Chase, Higgins, shifty RB Chase Brown, and complementary pieces such as WR Andrei Iosivas and TE Noah Fant, you don't need to be overly exotic. The Bengals run their offense primarily out of the shotgun (1st, 79.4%) with three wide receivers (74.8%, 2nd) and rank 28th in motion rate (25.1%) – it's a shotgun spread offense, whether it's Burrow or Flacco.
Another interesting trend with the Bengals offense is their limited use of the run game. Cincinnati is only calling a run on 31.3% of its offensive plays, the lowest rate in the NFL. Cincy won't even run the ball into two-high safety shells, ranking last in the NFL with a 25.5% two-high run rate. Plus, Flacco is a stationary pocket passer who isn't a threat to run on scrambles. So, when you put it all together, you have two elite receivers and very little rushing threat with an immobile quarterback.
Given all those factors, the blueprint against the Bengals offense has been to play two-high safety shells, where the backend can bracket both Chase and Higgins. However, Chase's absence might mean the two-high safety strategy isn't necessary with just Higgins and the Bengals complementary playmakers around Flacco this week.