The Blues have a remarkable record at Turf Moor, but will it continue on Saturday? We look ahead to the Premier League clash with our Burnley vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Burnley vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
Chelsea claimed all three points against Burnley in a convincing 57% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
The Blues have won each of their last seven Premier League games kicking off at 12:30 on a Saturday.
Burnley have had the fewest shots (90), lowest xG (8.3), lowest possession (38.6%), faced the most shots (192), and have the highest xGA (24.0) in this season’s competition.
Chelsea will hope to pick up where they left off before the international break when they return to action at Burnley in Saturday’s Premier League clash.
Enzo Maresca’s side travel to Turf Moor for the early kick-off after recording back-to-back victories over Tottenham and Wolves. Those wins moved them up to third in the table, two points behind Manchester City and six adrift leaders Arsenal.
João Pedro scored the only goal in a 1-0 win over rivals Spurs, and added another from close range in a comfortable 3-0 triumph over Wolves. The Brazilian striker had failed to find the net in seven Premier League games before this but could now score in three successive appearances in the competition for just the second time.
He last managed goals in three straight league matches in February/March of the 2024-25 campaign for Brighton. However, João Pedro has never scored in four previous appearances against Burnley in the Premier League, only facing Brentford (7) and Everton (5) more times without finding the net.
His fellow South American, Alejandro Garnacho, could also make his 100th Premier League appearance. Aged 21 years and 144 days, he would be the youngest player from his adoptive continent to reach the milestone, overtaking Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli from October 2023 (22y 125d).
That attacking pair could be central to any hopes of Chelsea extending their encouraging away run. They have won both of their last two Premier League away games without conceding, against Spurs and Nottingham Forest.
The Blues have not won three in a row on the road in the competition while keeping a clean sheet each time since November 2021 (4), but Maresca may fancy his chances in what seems to have become a favoured kick-off slot.
Indeed, Chelsea have won each of their last seven Premier League games kicking off at 12:30 on a Saturday. In the competition’s history, on just three occasions have any side had a longer winning run in this exact kick-off slot: Manchester United (8 from Jan 2003-Dec 2003), Chelsea themselves (8 from May 2005-Dec 2017) and Man City (9 from May 2021-Oct 2022).
Burnley stopping that run would seem unlikely, given they have lost four of their last six Premier League matches (W2) and conceded 2+ goals in five of those games.
Scott Parker’s side went down 3-2 at West Ham in their last outing before the international break, leaving them 17th and ahead of the Hammers only on goal difference. They are just a single point clear of Forest in 19th as well.
PL Table MD 11
Although Parker may be looking down the wrong end of the table, Zian Flemming has proved a bright spark. The Dutch forward has three goals in four Premier League starts for Burnley, with Maxwel Cornet (4) the only player to score 4+ goals in his first five starts in the competition for the Clarets.
The underlying metrics hand Parker some warning signs, though. Burnley have had the fewest shots (90), lowest xG (8.3), lowest possession (38.6%), faced the most shots (192) and have the highest xGA (24.0) in the competition this term.
Burnley Lack of Goals 2025-26 Premier League
As far back as Opta have this detailed data available from (2012-13), Burnley are the only side on record to rank bottom for each of these metrics in a top-flight season. They’ve have kept just two clean sheets overall in their last 31 Premier League games, shipping 64 goals in this period (2.1 per game).
Parker, at least, has little to worry about on the injury front. Jordan Beyer, Connor Roberts and Zeki Amdouni remain as Burnley’s only long-term absentees.
The same cannot be said for Maresca, who will hope Pedro Neto and Enzo Fernández can shake off injury concerns to feature at Turf Moor. Cole Palmer could return early next month, while Levi Colwill and Roméo Lavia remain out for an extended period.
Burnley vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
There may not be too much home optimism, considering Burnley have won just one of their 18 Premier League games against Chelsea (D5 L12).
Chelsea have also won eight of their last nine Premier League away games against Burnley, including the last six, and have netted at least three goals in each of the most recent five.
Only two teams have won six consecutive away games at another while scoring 3+ goals each time in English top-flight history – Chelsea at Arsenal between 1960 and 1965, and Man City at West Brom between 2013 and 2021.
Meanwhile, only at Bolton (9 between 2004 and 2011) and Sunderland (9 between 2003 and 2013) have Chelsea bettered their six-game away winning run against one opponent in the competition.
Burnley vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to look past an away win as Chelsea triumphed in 57% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Burnley managed a much-needed win in just 21.3% of the same data-led sims, while the draw was slightly more likely in 21.7%.
Burnley vs Chelsea Prediction
Burnley vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Burnley: Martin Dúbravka, Kyle Walker, Axel Tuanzebe, Maxime Estève, Quilindschy Hartman, Josh Cullen, Florentino, Loum Tchaouna, Lesley Ugochukwu, Jaidon Anthony, Zian Flemming.
Head coach: Scott Parker
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Reece James, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Andrey Santos, Moisés Caicedo, Estêvão, João Pedro, Alejandro Garnacho, Liam Delap.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend at Turf Moor, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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